215 comments on DrumBeat: March 17, 2008
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215 comments on DrumBeat: March 17, 2008
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So many times lines from the Princess Bride are appropriate, such as, never get involved in a land war in Asia. But here, the line is I do not think that word means what you think it does. Inflation pops up in many forms; in the 70's, when commodity prices increased and everyone agrees we had inflation, stock prices declined, substantially. The inflation/deflation argument cannot be settled by looking at one particular asset, or asset class. The rising tide of inflation does not lift all boats equally.
When prices move in one category, they often move in an opposite direction in another category. Witness, for example, motor gasoline prices and resale values on Hummers. Likewise, some asset classes move in tandem, such as financial stocks and the real estate used to house those financial companies (one hesitates to call it an "industry"). Bear Stearns, by the way, was bought for $236 million, or less than the building is priced; one year ago, the company was worth 30 times the building, at the extravagant pricing then.
We are witnessing a repricing of assets, in response to the substantial mis-pricing of certain assets over the past few years. That does not give you inflation or deflation.
I think that the BS building is probably a good deal right now, for someone in that business. But there are going to be better deals soon.
Raise cash, invest in things that can't be easily duplicated (such as fossil fuels and downtown and farming real estate), and avoid things that can be easily duplicated (such as paper money, mortgages, etc.), and I think you can survive intact.
Inflation will eventually arrive to lift all values of all asset classes, but some will go much higher than others, and we know here which classes those are.
Somehow, the BS abbreviation for Bear Stearns seems appropriate.
Jim Rogers on Bloomberg says "...a Bear Sterns bankruptcy would have exposed huge bonus payouts to traders...The Federal Reserve is using taxpayer's money to buy a bunch of Bear Stearns' traders Maseratis"... The FED will fail."
Jim Rogers Says Fed Support of Bear Stearns `Outrageous': Video Play
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/av/
I dunno...
Bear execs lack golden parachutes as stock plan crunched
Bear fire sale sparks financial rout
If they got Maseratis, they may have to sell them.
According to Rogers, if BS was forced into bankruptcy, "...billions in January bonuses would have to be returned."
Yes, employee staff will suffer but no crocodile tears need be shed for the traders. They are big boys who can take care of themselves.
Add Lehman Brothers to the list.
Lehman Brothers has lost a third of it's value in 2 1/2 hrs. Just like Bear Stearns on Friday. Actually down 36% right now and dropping quickly.
This thing is NOT contained.
Lehman has now lost half it's value with hours left til market close.
Looks like you fixed it - as soon as you posted this it turned around (well, a little anyway)!
Lehman rout tests Fed's resolve
The article goes on to say,
"In the meantime... executives, legislators and regulators will have to work to restructure the U.S. financial system to remove the incentives for players to take irresponsible actions."
Yes, by all means, let's harness the best minds to restructure the sytstem. How about Greenspan and Rubin redux?
Glass-Steagall, where were you we we needed you?
Solar: Skilling and Fastow were no worse than any of these guys (possibly not as bad).
Skilling and Fastow were smaller fish who took the fall IMO.
Their masters and tutors are now feeling the heat. But watch how facile the real perpetrators will be in defining the problem and becoming part of the restructuring solution.
The calls will go out now for economic physicians to restructure the financial system.
“During the long period of innocence in the 50s and 60s we basked in the happy conviction that economics was a developed science, roughly equivalent to the age of sulfanilamide in medicine. We were shocked to find that the state of economic science more nearly paralleled Dr. Harvey’s discovery of the circulation of the blood. Honest practitioners no longer try to hide their dubiety; many are resorting to leeches and poultices. I have faith that our economy is sufficiently robust to survive, yet I cannot forget the infant Louis XV, who, after contracting smallpox, was saved from death only because his nurse hid him from the ministrations of the doctors whose vigorous attentions killed his father and his brother.”
George Ball (1909-1994)
Investment Banker and former Under Secretary of State in the Kennedy and Johnson administrations and foreign policy advisor to the Carter administration.
It's disturbing the version of history we get taught. We will go on believing some warped version of reality and basing our current decisions on the erroneous myths of the recent past. But that is a rant I do not have the time to address properly...
Of course, BS is only the beginning. A BS is always followed by an MS (More of the Same), and finished off with a PhD (Piled higher and Deeper)
You were supposed to do more studying than was assigned by the prof. Then you might have seen the real estate bubble and got out of mortgage backed securities more than a year ago.
"Bear" is pretty salient too.
So well said. The rising tide of inflation is actually a tsunami, and will inundate all equally. I lived in Brazil for a couple of years during their chronic hyperinflation -- but was shielded because I was paid in American Dollars which were actually worth something then. Interestingly, Brazil also once had a valuable currency -- but that was a long time ago.
It seems that under chronic hyperinflation, money ceases to have much meaning, and as much as possible things revert to barter. It certainly did not stop the growth of the population, and there wasn't mass starvation, although the bottom tiers of the economy were (and are) pretty desperate.
Of course the big difference from Brazil is that most of the US's debts are denominated in US dollars. I remember years ago some visiting American friends were very worried about America's rising debt. How would future generations pay it off? I laughed and said that if the USA ever got in real trouble it could just print money to pay its debts. "Oh no, we would never do that"...
I think the point is that we see that the govt's going to use the printing press a la Weimar. Yes, of course, there will be repricings within that.
Underlying all this is the massive devaluation of suburbia and all that depends on it (i.e. everything!) because of the increasing price of energy.
There are strong parallels with Germany in the 20s and 30s, although the order in which things are unfolding here is different. And Germany's resource problems were not because of geology, but because she lost WW1. Ditto her debt problems. But the debt and resource issues were in very broad brush the same. War and fascism were the "solution". We're already at war. The "problem" has been that the economy's been more or less ok -- til now. Will opposition to war (and wider war), timid as it has been, hold up in a depression? Or will depression supply the lacking cannon fodder?