242 comments on DrumBeat: March 18, 2008
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GAIA Host Collective
Re: Barnett Shale Play & Bakken Shale Play
After vast capital expenditures, the Barnett Shale Play has helped to basically stabilize total Texas natural gas production at about 60% of our 1972 peak production rate.
The Bakken is clearly a commercial play, but the key question is whether the producing intervals are commercially productive across a wide area, or only in discrete traps, and different recovery factor assumptions produce wildly different URR estimates.
In any case, IMO October, 2007 was the beginning of the real Energy Boom/Crisis. Whether it is perceived as boom or crisis is largely dependent on whether you are a net energy producer or net energy consumer.
I would be very cautious about assuming that the oil industry's ability to make money in resource plays and in finding overlooked oil fields will translate into good news for net energy consumers.
West-
I've been in Continental Resources since the IPO.
I believe their development costs in the Bakken are about $30/barrel. That is for the productive well.
It seems like no matter who I talk to-- you either have a cash lifting cost of $20 with a development cost of $20, or a cash lifting cost of $10 with a development cost of $30, but North American crude oil at its best is a $40/barrel cost product today.
And looking at Rexx Energy, their sum total lifting development and G&A cost is $50/barrel. They are an 80% Illinois Basin company.
FF
the nd industrial commission has a presentation on the middle bakken. the usgs has a study out as well:
http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/2006/06035flannery/index.htm
and encore aquisition's 3-4-08 analyist presentation
http://www.encoreacq.com/
apparently there is a lot of wild speculation about the urr for the middle bakken. the kipplinger article quotes 100Gb.
wow! another ghawar right here in the missouri river badlands. dream on...............encore uses reserves of 300 kb/section, extrapolation implies an area of 333,333 - 640 acre sections.
encore uses an ip of 440bopd. the ip is the subject of wild speculation also.
Some peakoil.com threads:
Finally, the Bakken makes the national media (NY Times)
Peak oil: Do you want it to occur? (go in about 8 pages)
Flow rates will never reach very high, but it is good LSC. Will be a good long-term resource - perhaps for the military/government.
well, at least the nyt reports their wildly speculative 200 gb figure as oil in place. kipplenger's wildly speculative 100 gb is implied as recoverable.
they must be a shill for cera, note they are saying that the usgs final report, when it is published, will be "conservative". i have read that before in ceraspeak.
Wiki has an article about the Bakken:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakken_Formation
I had read that Bakken was 400 billion barrels of oil in place. One might expect to recover 10-20% of that. Of course the play is in its early stages and as time goes on a clearer picture might develop.
The Barnett Shale in the Ft. Worth area is the largest remaining natural gas field in Texas. Devon is the largest acreage holder in the play and gave a resource estimate of 13 tcf in its portion. Devon expected peak production from its holdings there in 2009 at about 1 bcf/day. The United States used about 22 tcf per year. The horizontal wells cost millions of dollars a piece. The United States used about 22% of the world's natural gas per year. Check the Devon website for investor presentation (pdf) about their work there.
What a nice windfall for DFW. Too bad they can't fuel planes on NG and still have to buy Jet A.
The way the oil companies seem to be approching this is that the oil is distributed over a wide area. This seems to be based on research that shows that the formation is continuous. The research can be found here:
http://www.undeerc.org/Price/
Apparently this work will be published officially next month.
Chris
At some point, it would be good to find enough information on the Barnett Shale Play to put together a post on the topic, either as a guest post or as a post by one of the TOD staff.
We get little pieces here and there. There was some earlier discussion on one of my posts.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3531#comment-295841
Do we have folks with inside knowledge of the situation. Besides Jeffrey Brown, I know that "mdsolar" has posted on the topic, and now I see Fractional_Flow. What other folks know something about the topic?
Imagine the Bartlett, Arkoma, and Fayetteville Shale to the Reelfoot Rift/Mississippi Embayment as an
Arc surrounding and caused by the uplift of the Ouachita Mountain
Range, the only East West Range in the US.
The Barnett and Fayetteville being on either side of the shallow
Arkoma.
In Arkansas, the farther East you go, the deeper the play is. To know where the current plays are, follow the County Judge.
He must be told which roads will be used/destroyed to get the wells up and running.
Right now White and Van Buren are the big plays. A man (from an article on road taxes being taken out of royalty payments) said that the 2 lane road in front of his house has interstate 40 type traffic on it.
"I don't know what they're building up there, but it must be huge (Searcy,
White County, Chaesapeake Energy)."
"Ouachita Mountain
Range, the only East West Range in the US"
the granite range of wyoming is east-west also.
Gail,
I've only been following the news on this (Bakken oil). I'm not a geologist and so far as I can tell, the hold up with the USGS publishing the work that Leigh Price did is that they haven't felt qualified to assess it. What I know is that the estimate for oil in place is around 400 billion barrels of light sweet crude spread over a wide area. Development has been going on in Montana, North Dakota and Canada. The cost figure I've seen is that it is economic to extract at $60/barrel. The oil comes from shale, but is trapped in a layer of sandstone that is thin and broad. Horizontal drilling is used to access this layer which is sandwiched between two layers of shale. It sounds like now people are beginning to feel comfortable saying that 100 billion barrels could be extracted. That is about 13 years of US oil consumption. The formation also produces natural gas and one well produced "2,247 barrels of oil and 1.7 million cubic feet" of gas in a day recently. http://www.scandoil.com/moxie-bm2/by_province/americans_onshore/usa/whit...
So that is about 11% of the energy in gas. Wells have been flaring the gas but I think they all plan to capture it as soon as they can. If the gas fraction is typical then this comes to 75 trillion cubic feet of gas, about 3 years of US consumption. As I say, I'm not a geologist but I'd guess that the light stuff comes up first so that the gas fraction might decline with time.
EDIT: mixed up cubic feet and meters originally.
Chris
You may want to review the history of the Austin Chalk Play as a pretty good analogue to the Bakken Shale Play. I suggest you quiz the engineers up the thread about what they think about 100 Gb in URR for the Bakken.
In any case, can you provide some documentation for the following?
December 3, 2007
Billions of barrels of oil found in Eastern Montana
By JENNIFER McKEE
Gazette State Bureau
HELENA - The low point came when the things got so tight that Billings petroleum geologist Richard Findley flirted with the idea of taking a second job as a restaurant cook.
He was working out of his basement, looking for oil in an Eastern Montana field almost nobody else wanted. Then, in 1996, he and his partner accidentally stumbled across a porous layer of dolomite 9,000 feet below ground at a site just a little west and north of Sidney.
That serendipity turned out to be the largest on-shore oil discovery in the continental United States in better than 20 years. Today, the oil field Findley found - and the technology he helped develop to extract the oil - has made millionaires out of ordinary Montanans, has swollen state coffers and ushered in a new philosophy of oil prospecting worldwide...
The Williston Basin is a geologic formation beneath a good chunk of Eastern Montana, most of North Dakota, parts of South Dakota and the Canadian provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Within the basin is something called the Bakken Formation. The Bakken (rhymes with "talking") is a sandwich of two slabs of black shale surrounding a layer of limestone, siltstone, sandstone and dolomite, another kind of sedimentary rock...
More:
http://billingsgazette.net/articles/2007/12/03/news/state/20-oil.txt
Thanks, but I'm looking for the documentation that the 100 Gb in URR are projected to come from a thin blanket sandstone.
Figure 1-10 here http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/2006/06035flannery/index.htm describes the middle member.
Chris
From the linked article, regarding the middle siltstone interval:
One way of reading the link though is that the middle member is a trap itself. The USGS has been on again off again about saying anything about this. If they do next month, perhaps we'll have some reviewed work to look at.
Chris
Thanks. Assuming there is 100 billion barrels available (a big assumption), It will be interesting to see how much of it can be produced annually. We are currently using about 8 billion barrels a year. If it were possible to produce 4% of the 100 billion in a year, that would be half of our current use. At this point, it is probably too soon to even speculate.
We are talking about 2,247 barrels of oil a day from the one well. To get 4 billion barrels a year, we would need the equivalent of 4,877 wells producing at the rate of this one to get 10,958,904 barrels a day = 4 billion barrels a year.
This article appears to talk a bit about the Middle Bakken formation exploitation going on in Canada.
(emphasis mine)
Seems like they can't quite narrow it down well up here, either. But at least it makes specific reference to OOIP.
It should not come as much of a surprise to most of us here that it's not exactly a gusher...
Still, I'd like to have one of those on hand in, say, 10 years.
The article mentions a related oil shale play in neighbouring Manitoba, albeit very briefly.
I think that what people are doing is taking the Bakken Shale original oil in place (OOIP) estimates--hundreds of billions of barrels of oil--and then looking at discrete sandstone/shale producing fields and then extrapolating the discrete fields across the whole play.
The large estimates come from analysing the shale. The novel idea is that the oil has not migrated except to the middle member. This is based on interpolation of cores that North Dakota has accumulated. There is a summary of this here: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/ndgs/bakken/newpostings/07272006_BakkenReserveEst...
and other links here: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/ndgs/bakken/bakken.asp
In connection with Gail's suggestion, maybe the best thing to do would be to interview Julie LeFever of the North Dakota Geological Survey after compiling a list of skeptical questions. This could give a better idea about the uncertainties in the high estimates perhaps.
Chris
"Assuming there is 100 billion barrels available (a big assumption)"
assume the moon is made of white cheese and we will never run out, assume the earth is filled with a core of light sweet abiotic idiotic crude, assume anything you like.
Hi Westexas,
I'm just wondering if the capital expenditures on the Barnett were as vast as the natural gas reserves in South America, or as vast as the oil field in North Dakota?
In other words (are there any other words?), how vast is vast? Is vast vaster when we're talking of capital, gas or oil? Is it even possible to speak of units of vastness?
On a related subject, do train buffs buff trains? Can a buff ever be an advocate?
Something tells me you were having a little fun this morning, Jeffrey, buffing your post with a little journalese.
I'm wondering about this oil field in North Dakota. The article from today's drumbeat above says the field could contain up to 100 billion barrels. True, or is it just another fantasy from the abiotic oil crowd?
"this oil field in North Dakota"
it is not a single field, although that is probably what is implied by the likes of kipplinger. as wt points out, the middle bakken will likely produce on structural and stratigraphic traps. currently, most of the drilling is on the nesson "anticline" and the nesson extention(whatever that is).
"the field could contain up to 100 billion barrels"
again, kipplinger clearly implies that the recoverable oil is 100 gb, a ghawar field in the missouri river badlands, in other words.
give these cornucopians credit, if nothing else they are persistant.
One Ghawar, or 8 Prudhoe Bays (largest oil field in North America) or 17 East Texas Fields (largest oil field in the Lower 48).
The 100 Gb story is beginning to remind me of some of the guys pushing Pacific Ethanol stock not too long ago.