So there's not one but TWO unknowns in the price:

1. Gas availability (the one TOD tends to concentrate on)
2. Inflation expectations...

Can you explain why oil futures have risen given your explanation of contract settlement prices -surely with the dollar falling they should also fall as Inflation expectations pick up...

Nick.

noutram- only one explanation makes sense: oil investors expect price to rise in real, not nominal terms. i.e. that the price will rise after inflation adjustment is taken into account. why? possibilities: 1. rising demand; 2. static or falling supply; and/or 3. the dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency and future transactions will be priced in some other currency (such as euros). of the three, the latter is probably the most dramatic in its immediate consequences. imagine thousands of transactions initially priced in dollars that must be completed in another currency. it would be a currency run on the dollar unlike anything since the confederate dollar or the tsarist rouble.