22 comments on UK Natural Gas Prices, Already at Historically High levels, Set To Rise
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22 comments on UK Natural Gas Prices, Already at Historically High levels, Set To Rise
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"Meanwhile, the Financial Times reports that European gas prices may rise because the Central Asian countries want to increase the price they sell gas to Russia"
So the Financial Times is spreading the same anti-Russian lie. Europe does not get *any* of the cheap Central Asian gas. It all goes *without markup* to Ukraine, Armenia, Moldova and Georgia. Ukraine (43 bcm/year) and Iran (8 bcm/year) are the two targets of exports from Turkmenistan. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan export only small volumes via Russia (around 15 bcm/year total).
Also, why do professional Russia haters in the west think that Central Asian gas sold to Europe will be cheap? Where is their evidence that current export volumes are constrained by Russian gas pipelines? The blather is just insane: South Stream is "competition" for Nabucco. South Stream is designed to ship Russian gas you morons.
Dissident,
I agree that the UK media have seriously misrepresented Ukraine in the Ukraine-Russia gas disputes. But I think that there is room for a more serious dispute in future. Yulia Tymoshenko, the Ukrainian Prime Minister, wanted two concessions from Russia, re natural gas imports. The riddance of the middle men, which apparantly been achieved, was one of them (Russia, Ukraine agree to remove gas middlemen). The other has been lower gas prices. This looks very doubtful. Presumably if Turkmenistan raises its gas export prices to say $300 per 1000 cubic metres, Ukraine would have to pay more than this, which it is unlikely to do. Also, Turkemistan is planning to sell its gas to China (30 bcm/year) relatively cheap.
Platts has reported at least three times over the last year, most recently last week, that Norway has reduced, or completely cut off, with no warning gas supplies to the UK thro the Langeled pipeline. Each time it has caused the wholesale price of UK gas to increase, albeit temporarily, but I have never seen this mentioned in the UK media. Why is the UK media reporting so much on the apparent unreliability of gas supplies thro Ukraine (which the UK does not actually depend on), but ignore the unscheduled reduction in supplies from Norway/Langeled?
Doug (or anyone else),
Do you have links to the reports from Platts on Norwegian nat gas deliveries which is being referred to in this post?
Thanx.
EnergyMan2000,
Here is the most recent example: UK NBP gas prices surge on Norwegian supply drop, oil jump
. The next item is a Platts article that does not exist any more, from 13 July 2007. I have copied this from the ODAC newsletter where I first reported it:
UK NBP gas prices climb further as low Norwegian flows continue (Platts, Fri 13 Jul)
http://www.platts.com/Natural%20Gas/News/8155966.xml?p=Natural%20Gas/New...
Comment: You have to wonder what sort of agreement / contract the UK has with the Norwegians where they can export to the UK any amount of gas they like, including, it seems, none.
Article: UK gas prices at the National Balancing Point climbed further Friday as flows from Norway stayed at low levels and the market remained nervous over price volatility, traders said.
... Part of the tightness was due to the continued unplanned outage at BP's CATS pipeline, which has been offline for almost two weeks now. A BP spokesman said Thursday was still no news on the situation, and that the company's earlier assessment that the outage would likely take weeks still stood.
Traders Friday said it was unclear whether the outage would indeed only take weeks or in fact several months, with the former now seen as a bearish outcome in comparison.
... Flows from Norway were negligible, as they had been since Wednesday. The Langeled pipeline was flowing at about 5 million cu m/d, having dropped to zero overnight and jumping a notch during the morning. The pipeline had flowed at about twice that level earlier in the week, and as much as 10 times the level in the previous week.
Norwegian producers said Thursday that low flows were not due to an field or infrastructure outages, planned or unplanned, and instead blamed relatively low UK demand.
But traders expressed incredulity at these statements, with one saying Friday: "People are edgy now because they don't know how Norway will flow. I don't believe that it's because of low UK demand, that doesn't make any sense." He added that the Norwegian flow rates over the past few months had made the market "untradeable."...
Doug
Doug,
thanks a lot.
A tough part of understanding the future UK nat gas supply picture goes into understanding the existing, future and shape of deliveries in the commercial arrangements between Buyers and Sellers.
If you got potential supplies (which might be reasonably estimated from data from open sources like BERR and NPD), available transport or receiving capacities what remains as the hard part is the commercial arrangements between Buyers and Sellers.
NGM2
A search finds ONE MSM mention.
Time to cut the excuses
Undertow,
thanx a lot for your link.
NGM2