The Oil Drum

282 comments on DrumBeat: March 20, 2008

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LevinK on March 20, 2008 - 5:08pm

Instead of looking at nameplate capacity we should be looking at actual generation:

- from 2001 to 2007 (the years of the wind "boom") wind power has increased from 7TWh to 32TWh or 25TWh
- total electricity generated grew from 3,736 to 4,160 TWh or by 424TWh so wind power is accountable only for 5.8% of the increase. The additions by the other major sources are as follows:
- natural gas - +254 TWh (60%)
- coal - +116 TWh (27.4%)
- nuclear - +35 TWh (8.3%)
- hydro - +31 TWh (7.3%)

So... in case you just moved to the US and are wondering where the extra electricity you are using came from, you should visit the natural gas or coal power plant serving your area (accounting for 87.4% of it). Not really the local wind farm.

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AlanfromBigEasy on March 21, 2008 - 6:28am

Given the high rates of increase in wind during that period, your analysis is almost meaningless. You are making an arithmetic average of an exponential function.

Assume, say, 8 GW this year, 11 GW in 2009, 15 GW in 2010, 20 GW in 2011 with 35% capacity factor and the numbers from wind look much more significant.

The 1 GW in new nuke from Watts Bar 2 (started in late 1970s) should almost be complete by 2011.

Add the negawatts from conservation and the number can become significant. These are our two best hops before TSHTF.

Best Hopes for a Rush to Wind,

Alan