It's all about cost. Alternative energy schemes become more viable with each passing day. The U.S. almost doubled its wind power capacity last year. Put a $100 per barrel tax on oil and the U.S. will have a balanced budget,with just about any form of alternative energy becoming more affordable than oil and gas. That won't happen,but peak energy will have the same effect. It'll take a bit longer and won't balance any budgets,but it'll happen nonetheless.

Maybe the greyhound will catch the mechanical rabbit, but I remember opinions that oil would never pass $100 without alternatives gaining ground. Oil is still the preferred energy source at $107 and you state that $200 is the new limit-why $200-why not $113?

Er, alternatives are gaining ground. Theres lag time for infrastructure to be built, weather its tar sands production, coal liquefaction, GTL or whatnot. Theres also the institutional reluctance to invest billions of dollars in an industry with high production costs when its perceived oil prices could be a bubble.

But SASOL has large contracts now, tar sands production is rising, and new infrastructure is being built.