97 comments on The rising fortunes of coal - perhaps
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The latest research by the Hansen lab indicates that at about 450 ppm of carbon dioxide we should expect an Earth free of ice, which would raise sea levels by about 80 meters (ca. 250 ft).
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TargetCO2_20080317.pdf
"Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3°C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6°C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and icefree Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 425±75 ppm, a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm."
Since peak fossil fuels will still let us go to 450 ppm, our goal should be to keep as much in the ground as possible. Instead we have an essay bemoaning the lack of capacity to use it up!
Personally, I could adjust to life with little and intermittent electricity and am totally willing to accept that if it is necessary to keep the Earth system fairly habitable for me, my descendants and other forms of life.
If climate change scientists and the educated lay people are "strident" it is because we prefer to live rather than have a die off that looks like the movie "Soylent Green."
I do not think that is the intent of the essay at all. I think he is bemoaning the fact that rather than build nuclear and renewables, the people who are trying to build power plants are assuming that coal will solve the problem. However, politicians in the west are blocking the building of coal plants, too, so that we will soon have power shortages. He does not even mention that there is good reason to believe that coal production will peak in about 15 years.
Conservation can mitigate the decline of fossil fuels but it cannot solve our future needs. The only thing that can is to build capacity of sources that have assured fuel and do not contribute to global warming. Those are nuclear, wind and solar.