<The rising fortunes of coal - perhaps The Oil Drum Peak Oil and Economic Growth: Where Do We Go From Here?>

54 comments on Jamais Cascio: Peak Oil vs. Global Warming

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kenny on March 28, 2008 - 8:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think their scenario is unrealistic. What they're saying is that a decline in the world's oil supply will prevent a lot of CO2 from getting into the atmosphere if coal is deliberately restricted.

It's delusional. It ignores the facts on the ground: we're in the middle of a nearly unprecedented coal boom. The reason - the world is desperate for more energy. This current massive coal fired generation building boom and massive expansion of coal exporting is meant to satisfy growing demand for energy that has nothing to do with the peak oil transportation energy challenge. Guess how many of the coal-fired plants now under construction around the world or in planning have incorporated carbon capture and sequestration technology.

Imagine what this coal boom will be like when peak oil hits. Desperation to burn coal will rapidly ramp up into a frenzy. The one part the report gets right is that coal may peak sooner than many expect.

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Barrett808 on March 28, 2008 - 11:22am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Didn't Kjell Aleklett find that even with coal, there's still not enough carbon in the ground to get to 500ppm?

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kenny on March 28, 2008 - 11:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I don't think he found that at all. Their guess about coal reserves is just a guess though perhaps more educated than some. They note that the energy value of U.S. coal may already have peaked, but that's not the same as a CO2 peak. They surmise that Russia will be the last great coal exporter, but they don't know how much coal Russia will be able to mine and produce. No one can yet determine with any kind of accuracy when the coal peak will come.

Coal is the industrial energy source of both first and last resort. The re-electrification of transportation will preserve industrial civilization for a while. Coal will not be able to cover both baseline electrical demand plus that project. Nuclear, wind and concentrated solar power will play a role. The real energy collapse comes not when oil peaks but when coal peaks.

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Barrett808 on March 28, 2008 - 2:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Fair enough, thanks.

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ccpo on March 28, 2008 - 9:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The papers on energy reserves and how much CO2 they would produce and, thus, their effect on climate were all done prior to Hansen. et al.'s new work on sensitivity, so those papers need to be reconsidered through that new constraint.

Cheers

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54 comments on Jamais Cascio: Peak Oil vs. Global Warming

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