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54 comments on Jamais Cascio: Peak Oil vs. Global Warming
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54 comments on Jamais Cascio: Peak Oil vs. Global Warming
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Kiashu, thanks for this - you've articulated exactly my trouble with the report - while I agree with Jason it would be enormously wiser to leave the coal in the ground, and that all efforts should be made on that front, I have real doubts about whether it is possible as oil prices drive people in precisely the opposite direction. A friend of mine who sells heating devices tells me they are seeing a renewed interest in home coal stoves by people who can't afford to heat their houses with oil (the Northeast is heavily oil dependent for heating, unlike the rest of the US).
I appreciate Hansen's work, and I think the analysis is valuable, but I think that if we can not burn the coal, we can not burn the oil, and if we can't not burn the oil, we'll burn the coal too, horribly.
Sharon
I think it's quite possible that people will decide to leave the coal in the ground. I just don't see why they'd pump the oil to the limits of what's physically possible, yet at the same time agreeing to keep the coal in the ground.
Either we have restraint with all fossil fuels, or with none.
And they completely miss deforestation, just blandly assuming that we could have some grand world forestation campaign. The fact is that people's efforts to stop deforestation came decades before any ideas about climate change were about. And yet still 17.5% of greenhouse gas emissions are from deforestation, illegal logging is rife and responsible for more than half the logging done in Asia, and so on.
That does not to me suggest that deforestation could stop, let alone be reversed. This is especially true in the Third World where most deforestation takes place, because... well, let's imagine that we stop pumping oil and gas and digging up coal. We in the West are wealthy enough to put in wind turbines and the like to make up for it. But what's Senegal going to do? Or Colombia? They'll cut wood and burn it, that's what.
So any effort at reducing greenhouse gases has to look not only at burning fossil fuels, which are after all just 55% of all emissions, but also at deforestation, and so on. If we don't want these countries to keep chopping down their forests, well first up we need to stop buying their timber, and second we need to give them an alternative. I'd begin building wind turbines not in Australia or the US, but in Senegal and Colombia and the like.
This would also help with rapidly rising in emissions countries like China and India, to show that you can have a good quality of life without burning fossil fuels.
I think you are misunderstanding Hansen's intent. I believe (I have no direct connect to the man to test my hypothesis) the paper's intent is to show that restraining CO2 is possible. I don't think it is intended to show THE way, or THE best way to do so. They are outlining how the world's climate **can** be stabilized. Assigning to them comments such as "blandly assuming" shows lack of insight into the man and his work. He is well aware he is talking about massive shifts in economy, behavior, politics, etc.
Cheers
Anyone can paint such a scenario. That's no challenge. The challenge is to present one which is plausible.
It's not plausible that we'll burn as much oil as we possibly can, yet have restraint with the coal, and regrow the forests. It's like imagining that a burglar will take your DVD player but not the cash sitting next to it. Either he refrains from theft, or he gets right into it.
Had H&K described a scenario in which all fossil fuel use was restrained, my response would be, "that's nice - how?" But they didn't do that, they presented a confused and implausible scenario.
The senarios in that paper are a little dated now. You might be interested in the action plan outlined in this talk given in February in Bloomington, IL. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/illwesleyan_20080219.pdf
In the same directory you can find the draft paper I was responding to with the coral post at the Real Energy Blog.
Chris