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Nate, I think you and Gail and Greer et al have it spot on. Now let us estimate the likelihood of a *short term* turnaround in which such energy supplies become rapidly available. All done estimating ;-)?
Longer term, we can probably gradually ramp things up to an extent, depending on economic factors and what else we decide to do - but the question becomes, if we aren't going to make a rapid transition, what do we do in the meantime - do we put everything we've got to trying to build the new infrastructure and in the meantime screw the majority who aren't going to get personal solar or wind, and are going to be left with cars that don't work, and houses that don't heat, and no health care or educational system that can work without fuels, or do we accept an even longer lead time on any transition, and do what we can with what we have to soften the blow for most people, by keeping up lifespan, quality of life and allowing people to live decently - but at the price of a longer time before we can ever run as a high energy society?
I think those genuinely are the choices, and I know which side I personally stand on. But it is a tough decision - and tough stakes, and the price is high either way.
Sharon
Sharon:
Unfortunately, given our political system here in the US, it is unlikely that any such choice will ever be made. I doubt that we're even capable of making effective major public policy choices any more. Whatever happens will happen by default. Which means that there will be no big, coordinated, well-though-out programs, crash or otherwise. "Business as usual" will continue long past the time when things are no longer "usual". Whatever big government initiatives are eventually undertaken will almost inevitably be wrong. (Corn Ethanol is exhibit A.) Infrastructure and artifacts will deteriorate and eventually be abandonded on a piecemeal basis. Decline will be gradual and inexorable - we will continue to hear "there's light at the end of the tunnel" and "prosperity is just around the corner" until we can't stand it any more, but things will just continue to get worse.
Energy conservation and alternative energy investments will also happen piecemeal, a little bit here, a little bit there. It will never be enough "to allow us to run as a high energy society", but gradually individuals -- and thus society as a whole -- will adapt and adjust to the future reality. That future reality is a society that is much poorer and necessarilly more frugal. As I figure it, if we end up as well off as Costa Rica, we'll have done well - and I see that as probably an overly optimistic hope.
And yes, the majority of people are going to get screwed, big time, along the way. It is not going to be a pleasant or happy time.
The bottom line advice for most people in the US (and this pretty much holds for other parts of the world as well): Get your debts paid off sooner rather than later (while you still can), and own some property free and clear; make investments to the extent that you are able in household energy efficiency and alternative energy; produce as much of your own food as you feasibly can; and in general downsize your lifestyle and live frugally. Don't worry about the fact that the people around you aren't doing the same, yet. They'll be following along soon enough.