The Oil Drum

176 comments on EROI Post - A Response from Charlie Hall

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Cold Camel on April 3, 2008 - 9:07pm

Professor Hall,
Thank you for your efforts.
You’ve spent 30 years accumulating the data. I’ve spent 5 years accumulating understanding. We both “get” the issue. Chances of finding a solution for the world situation on TOD are nil, but I certainly hope you succeed. Please just answer a few questions:

What should an average American working Joe with a family do?
What should I teach my children?
With your understanding and insight, what are YOU doing for you and yours?

You are a scientist of great stature in my mind. You are Churchill, Washington, Arthur, or King David. Stand up from your throne and pronounce your judgment. Even though there are still 100’s of advisors petitioning for audience, it’s time to say, “Enough!”

No pressure now. I’ll understand if you say, “I don’t know.”

I discovered Peak Oil in December 2002. In March I wrote a note to my children. Now, five years later, everything I wrote in the note still holds true. Time does not always grant wisdom. If thirty years of academic research hasn’t granted you wisdom and vision that you did not already possess 29 years ago, then it is time I stop looking. When there is no truth to be found, no truth will set me free.

Cold Camel

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Cold Camel on April 3, 2008 - 9:31pm

I grew up in Gainesville, Florida. I could have walked into Professor Odum’s office and asked, “What should a person do?” Of course I never did.

That’s why I hope that you will stick your neck out and suggest personal mitigation strategies, and let us know what you are doing personally.

Unfortunately, most elders that somewhat “get” this issue choose to ignore the future and live in the now. With grown children, they feel no obligation to pass on wisdom. Then they die.

That seems to me to be a copout. Even if their own children don’t “get” it, they should spread wisdom far and wide, hoping that some of the wisdom might land back on their own offspring.

Thanks in advance.

Cold Camel

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jokuhl on April 4, 2008 - 7:29am

Camel,
With all due respect, whatever else he may be doing, Dr. Hall did THIS. He has been writing on this and related topics for three decades, telling not only his kids, but his people, through his students. And, as he tells us, many of the questions around EROI were dealt with then, only to sink into obscurity and require relofting and reconvincing today. Truly Sisyfean task.. discouraging, probably, and a rough expense of their/our energy, to boot.

What if you discovered that he drives a Suburban? Does that change the issues in his research? My mom just bought an SUV, cringing at the choice, but it was the vehicle which would carry the tools and the wood to/from our land, and would also carry my 4 yr old on the days when she has her. It was the 'averaging' of her Honda and her Partner's Van.

Dr. Hall might have a very good list of 'what we all should be doing', but I'd bet you've seen that list before, as have I. We all have tasks to take up, we all also get to do some of the thinking, and to try out some brash notions that might not even work, because we have to try.

The Messengers are out there trying to do their job. Hansen, Gore, etc.. We might have to just make a decision ourselves as to what our jobs will be.

Respectfully,
Bob Fiske

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Nate Hagens on April 4, 2008 - 8:05am

Bob
Very well said.

I can't speak for Dr. Hall, but I doubt he, nor any of us have all the answers. ALL the answers require that we have macro, mezzo and micro scale recommendations and strategies. Though I internally know its a longshot, TOD is working at the macro scale - trying to educate people about the really big picture, with hopes this has large scale changes on the regional and national and levels. Down at the ground level is a different discussion entirely - TOD has not gone that route in its postings, though many of the commenters circle around that local/individual strategies.

We are conditioned to support and rally around the 'in' group, whatever that group may be. The more I learn about human behavior, both from reading, and observing, I think the only true hope for changing things on the macro/global scale with respect to resource depletion and climate change is to make us all part of the same 'in' group. I can't imagine anything that would do that short of an alien invasion. Even nasty climate change or peak oil blackouts, etc. would pit country against country for resources, etc. We need collective action on the grandest scale, yet under the surface it will remain every man, neighborhood, region, country for itself. Just imagine once net energy analysis and biophysical economics make it into national politics - we are going to go through ALL these same arguments again. One hopes there is starting to be a cadre of energy/environmentally literate folks around the world, perhaps from reading websites such as this one - because as you say, each of us has to make a decision of what our jobs will be to steer our paths, collectively and individually.

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baloghblog on April 4, 2008 - 5:31pm

Camel,

What Prof. Hall is "doing" is educating the next generation of workers, managers, environmentalists, and (yikes!) politicians. He challenges all of his students, from all backgrounds, to consider the future restraints in energy availability in all of their disciplines and future work. He not only is teaching students about peak oil, EROI, limits to growth, etc. but gives them the tools to challenge others, especially those with dogmatic neo-classical economic beliefs. He challenges students to question what "sustainability" truly means, and his work on the nation of Costa Rica demonstrates the difficulty in maintaining population "sustainably" even for a relatively small agricultural country.

My fellow students in class want the same answers from him as you do. Many of them (including myself) occasionally walk away agreeing in principle, but searching for answers.

Dr. Hall learned about Peak Oil in the 1970s and decided not to have children (see his bio on his site). He doesn't advocate this for everyone, but noted his personal choice in the matter. Certainly him having no more children has a significant impact on the world, and negates the argument above.

Debating who can call call them self an "expert" is a game of "whose CV is longer", and is a waste of time in my eyes. I suggest that you read his efforts on biophysical economics.

I for one am happy to take part in the discussions in his classroom. In a way I wish the type of conversation that is taking place here could be done face to face. It is easy to flame someone anonymously, it's another to be able to defend your position in a discussion.

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Cold Camel on April 4, 2008 - 6:09pm

Baloghblog,
Excellent reply!
He’s educating- the next generation. Yes!
Sustainability- it’s not easy. Yes!
He’s used to questions for answers. Yes!
No children- Now I know.
He’s an expert- Agreed.
Face to face discussions- I strongly agree.
I hope my comments were not perceived as flames. Argumentative, maybe, but I try to learn from just about everyone. I envy your classroom time with Dr. Hall. I’ll put my hand down now.
Cheers
Cold Camel

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Cold Camel on April 4, 2008 - 5:43pm

Bob and Nate,
Spot on brothers!
Bob, I would find it quite interesting to find that Dr. Hall was driving a Suburban, in a very non-judgmental way. (I have no idea what he drives) My personal judgments often vary dramatically with TOD group wisdom, his might also.
In my opinion, Dr. Hall did such a good job thirty years ago; he is wasting his time to cover the same material again today. But I eagerly await his discoveries, as a moth to the flame.
I personally believe that I should quit reading the comments on TOD. I haven’t learned anything useful in two years, other than that I pretty much know everything I need to know. TOD sucks my brains out and leaves me exhausted. With all due respect to the TOD intellects, both TOD and the TV are brain and time sucking machines.
Nate, I find data useful. I’m full up with analysis. You guys run circles around me, so I take your conclusions and run with them. I enjoy stretching models into the the fuzzy where I can contribute.
Here’s one: Jarvons Paradox works both ways. I’m not just talking about the decline in EROI that will exceed technological improvements, but rather a decline in consumption efficiency. Get it?
Jarvons Paradox in reverse: That as total production of a resource declines, the efficiency with which that resource is used will also decline. This is a big rut-roh that will be supported by observations.
Amory Lovins is wrong. Each barrel of oil produced during the decline will provide less happiness than before. Hording is a perfect example.
Cold Camel

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WisdomfromPakistan on April 5, 2008 - 6:57am

Hello Cold Camel

The questions were for not for me but let me answer them.

(Q) What should an average American working Joe with a family do?
(A) An average american and for that matter any average/ordinary person living anywhere in world at this time should accept the reality that the high life style of 20th century cannot continue for long, he should do what his ancestors were doing since past 12,000 years ago that is farming. Buy for yourself and family atleast one and atmost four acres of farm land somewhere where there is there is good supply naturally by rain, canal etc and make your house there. You not have to move there in one go, instead take your time, visit there first at vacations and then more as price of oil and with it everything increase making it harder and harder to live in city, learn basic skills such as how to grow fundamental crops like wheat, rice, pulses, how to handle farm animals, start with goat and then move to cow, plant some trees now so that later on it is able to give you fruits when you can't buy it from city market, plan to permanently settle down at your farm by the end of 2012.

(Q) What should I teach my children?
(A) If they are still in O-levels or below don't invest on their high school education because by the time they get a degree those skills would no longer be needed. Instead teach them basic skills such as farming, animal keeping etc.

(Q) With your understanding and insight, what are YOU doing for you and yours?
(A) I might not have that kind of indepth knowledge about economics, ecology and systems as professor has but I do have very good indepth knowledge about history which teach me that all civilizations fall sometime and when they fell the best place to live is farm, not city. What I am doing for myself (I not have children yet) is to slowly invest time, energy and money in both possessing farmland and animals and learning skills to operate them.

God is merciful to us. He provide the essential requirements of life in abundance and free, sunlight, rain and air is all free. We can use the same farm to grow crops for us and our children for thousands of years by recycling animal and human manure. Its our greed that make us tie to unsustainable life styles and make us work slaves for our bosses.

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jokuhl on April 5, 2008 - 8:02am

Great Post, Pakistan.

Very Sensible. Thanks.

Bob

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liferaft on April 5, 2008 - 1:00pm

My wife and I have been down this road. My 2c on what to do:

What should an average American working Joe with a family do?
> plant a food garden - great experience for the kids
> slow down spending and get rid of debt
> learn to freecycle and recycle
> if you are living in the burbs or other at risk area, seriously explore moving to community where there is a good growing climate, plenty of fresh water, alternative transport options (bus, train, bike), and an active sustainability movement
> if your job is in a discretionary part of the economy, start learning a new trade or skill.
> stop watching TV and get reacquainted with your yard and your neighbors. Join or start a neighborhood community group.

What should I teach my children?
> that they belong to the earth, not the other way around
> how to grow food
> to train for a job in the non-discretionary part of the economy
> how to work with almost anybody
> how to find and assess information

With your understanding and insight, what are YOU doing for you and yours?
> my wife and I relocated out of CA (just as prices were nosing over) and bought a home and rental in OR with no mortage.
> the home we purchased was heavily insulated in the 80s. We use our wood stove insert to heat the house during winter (house has electric ceiling panels). We are now taking advantage of current tax writeoffs to add solar PV and solar water heating.
> my wife has retooled her education and received her permaculture certificate, master gardener certificate, and is now working on master food preserver. I've gotten a master recycler certificate and training on community building skills. With the exception of the permaculture class, all other classes were one evening a week type classes.
> we live on 1/2 acre about 4 miles from downtown, and grow a lot of our own food, keep 4 chickens, and a beehive. We found a small local farmer where we purchase our meat, knowing the animals are treated humanely and without drugs.

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RBM on April 5, 2008 - 7:22pm

That's impressive !

I'm reevaluating my present location, particularly since I'll be entering a new career field in December (trade).

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liferaft on April 6, 2008 - 4:29pm

I must give credit to TOD for raising my awareness. My wife and I had been studying peak oil, climate change, and related issues since 2005. We had started growing some food on our limited plots in CA, and had started a postcarbon outpost (see www.postcarbon.org). We developed a 8 year plan to move, at the time when my wife was fully vested in her state pension.

In August 2006 we were invited by a member of another postcarbon outpost to attend a permaculture conference in Oregon. After the conference, and after 12 consecutive days of 100+ temperatures (a record) in CA, we made the decision to move right away. We had a lot of prior investment in CA, homes, family, friends, and my wife's pension. Leaving friends and family was the hardest part.

In any event, we had been preparing and researching options, such as intentional communities (which we decided to pass on, as they are notoriously prone to failure). I can't emphasize enough the importance of community in our process. We found our ideal site via the post carbon community, ruled out options by exploring other communities, and located ourselves in an area the community is highly aware of sustainability, peak oil, climate crisis, permaculture, etc.

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