207 comments on How Realistic is EIA's US Domestic Oil Supply and Demand Forecast?
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207 comments on How Realistic is EIA's US Domestic Oil Supply and Demand Forecast?
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From my graduate economics textbook:
Because the 'rules' that governed the first half of oil were 'made up' under conditions of plenty, and the same 'formulas' will not work when basic goods become more scarce. But economics wasn't designed with its own demise built in - there is no natural transition to 'something else' built into the discipline - only continued growth and utility for more. The practitioners of modern Walrasian welfare economics just assume that resource shortages will be met by technology and new substitutes. A graph of US oil production shows pretty clearly that price and technology did little to change the production profile, and we are more dependent than ever on liquid fuel to supply basic goods.
Every major corporation and government entity has high level and well paid economists repeating the false rationales underpinning modern economics - which even if you ignore the now countless examples disproving the demand side assumptions of humans as rational actors, you are still left with basing economic decisions on fiat money, which is ultimately an abstraction that has worth because we say it does. Economists are not trained in biophysical principles. I sense that just now, finally, some of them are starting to scratch their heads wondering where all these resource needs for water, natural gas, oil, food, etc are going to come from - but concepts like net energy, sadly, will likely remain in obscurity/academia until they can be analyzed in the rear view mirror, e.g. history.
Here is a recent Scientific American article with an interesting take on the false foundations of neoclassical economics, "The Economist Has No Clothes
Obviously a state of fright is due to emerge when Black Swan economics comes to the fore.
I imagine somthing like (with a nod to YPM):
"Humphrey, why did our estimate of production costs for coal to 2030 show a flat or declining cost when in reality we are paying five times that amount to get the coal out of the ground and keep our economy running?"
'Well that's because our model was -in a word- "Bolllocks"'
"I see, so what's plan 'B'?"
"May I recommend the Carribean?"
"You don't think Hampshire?"
"No Prime Minister..."
Nick.
"The strategy the economists used was as simple as it was absurd—they substituted economic variables for physical ones. Utility (a measure of economic well-being) took the place of energy; the sum of utility and expenditure replaced potential and kinetic energy. A number of well-known mathematicians and physicists told the economists that there was absolutely no basis for making these substitutions. But the economists ignored such criticisms and proceeded to claim that they had transformed their field of study into a rigorously mathematical scientific discipline."
Oh my, what medieval garbage.