<The Energy Scene in IndiaThe Oil DrumDrumBeat: April 10, 2008>

25 comments on Maryland Legislation Taps Energy Efficiency as the "First Fuel"

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ace on April 9, 2008 - 10:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

That's great news, Nate!

I expect the rest of the USA to follow Maryland's actions as it appears that the world production plateau of crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) is over, and C&C production has entered its irreversible decline phase.

World Crude Oil & Lease Condensate Production to 2012 (bottom up project forecast) - click to enlarge

For a more detailed forecast please see http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3623

As C&C production declines, expect higher oil prices. One the world's most prized oils, Tapis, exceeded $116/barrel for the first time today.
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_crude

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Nate Hagens on April 9, 2008 - 11:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ace
Big fan of your work. Always concise and referenced. Question:

What makes you confident that the drop you are seeing isn't like the dips you show after Peak 1 and Peak 2, and will make new highs later on?

thanks

p.s.I heard Guy Caruso at EIA conference today project total oil in ground of 16-21 trillion barrels. Another chap talked about technology eventually getting to 75% recovery rate. After 5 years of looking at this stuff, I am still SHOCKED at the disparity of beliefs in the two camps. They are off by an order of magnitude!!

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ace on April 10, 2008 - 2:30am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Nate,

I think that the drop in C&C production is irreversible because too many countries are now in decline or on plateau. Angola has just said that 2 mbd is their peak about now. Russia is either in decline or on peak plateau now. Venezuela is on a plateau or slight decline. Offshore areas such as North Sea, USA Gulf of Mexico and Mexico are in serious decline. Canada's tar sands production has been increasing but offsets Canada's declining conventional production. Saudi Arabia's C&C peaked in 2005 and Khursaniyah's 500 kbd project has been delayed and Aramco will only admit to a 300 kbd capacity.

Increasing production from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Brazil and possibly Nigeria and Iraq won't be able to offset all the declining countries. The forecast is also an output of an excel model which contains over 350 world projects/regions, each with their own production profile.

I am also given further confidence by IEA's forecast in their World Energy Outlook 1998, prior to their acceptance of the overoptimistic USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000.
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2006/02/usgs-world-petroleum-assessment-...
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/usgs2000/

Oil Supply Profile to 2030 - click to enlarge
source: page 100 http://www.iea.org/Textbase/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=1244

The chart above shows a crude oil peak in about 2012 assuming that the total ultimate recoverable reserves (URR) are 2,300 billion barrels. I think that this estimate is high. Colin Campbell's URR estimate is about 2,230 billion barrels but this includes 143 billion barrels yet to be discovered. So Campbell's revised known URR is lower at about 2,100 billion barrels. This lower estimate pushes the IEA peak forward. My estimate is that the world total URR for C&C is closer to 1,900 billion barrels as I think that Campbell's URR estimates for OPEC countries are too high which brings peak C&C further forward.
http://www.aspo-ireland.org/contentFiles/newsletterPDFs/newsletter88_200...

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BrianT on April 10, 2008 - 9:11am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Nate: I have read forecasts like 21 trillion-a country by country breakdown is never provided, which lessens the credibility of these claims greatly. Just a guess: Russia 4 trillion, SA 6 trillion, Canada 5 trillion, Venez 4 trillion? The numbers always look more ridiculous when listed by country.

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Neven911 on April 10, 2008 - 12:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ace is it significant that this bloomberg piece puts

500,000 barrel-a-day Shaybah oil field expansion

whereas this megaprojects page has it at 250,000

Neven

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ace on April 10, 2008 - 1:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Neven,

I think Bloomberg just made a mistake.

Aramco's official source says a 250 kbd expansion on Dec 2008 bringing Shaybah's total capacity to 750 kbd.
http://www.saudiaramco.com/irj/go/km/docs/SaudiAramcoPublic/FactsAndFigu...

Bloomberg's article does say that "Aramco will add a further 250,000 barrels a day by the end of the year when its 500,000 barrel-a-day Shaybah oil field expansion..." So the first part of their sentence is right.

What is interesting in Bloomberg's article is that Khursaniyah will only produce 300 kbd but "will eventually add 500,000 barrels a day to the country's production capacity". Maybe Khursaniyah will only ever produce 300 kbd.

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Neven911 on April 10, 2008 - 3:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ace

The 300kbpd is on start up, so possibly they will ramp up (as you have said before). The bigger question is how do they get to 12mbpd by the end of 2009? Close on an increase of 3mbpd from what they did in 2007 and just over 2 mbpd of megaprojects, so no decline and more than their telling us? I'd appreciate your take on it.

Neven

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ace on April 10, 2008 - 5:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Neven,

The short answer is that Aramco won't be producing 12 mbd of crude, although they might say they have the capacity. Please refer to some of the jokes on capacity by westexas.
http://www.theoildrum.com/user/westexas

Aramco’s new project additions do not offset the natural production declines of their existing fields as shown by the chart below. In addition, Aramco’s so-called surplus capacity is heavy oil which can’t be produced since there is not enough surplus refinery capacity to process their heavy oil. Consequently, Aramco’s production will, at best, remain on a plateau for the next couple of years.

Saudi Arabia Crude Oil & Lease Condensate Production to 2080 - click to enlarge

For a long answer please read section 5 of my Feb 2008 oil forecast
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3623

For more info please read my story on Saudi Arabia’s use of propaganda which includes a detailed discussion on discovered oil in place and recovery factors.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3665

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DaveMart on April 10, 2008 - 4:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ace, posts like yours and West Texas's in my view provide wholly persuasive evidence for the true situation in supplies, contrary to what government and industry sources would have us believe.
Thank you for your fine efforts.

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