<The Energy Scene in IndiaThe Oil DrumDrumBeat: April 10, 2008>

25 comments on Maryland Legislation Taps Energy Efficiency as the "First Fuel"

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Nate Hagens on April 9, 2008 - 11:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ace
Big fan of your work. Always concise and referenced. Question:

What makes you confident that the drop you are seeing isn't like the dips you show after Peak 1 and Peak 2, and will make new highs later on?

thanks

p.s.I heard Guy Caruso at EIA conference today project total oil in ground of 16-21 trillion barrels. Another chap talked about technology eventually getting to 75% recovery rate. After 5 years of looking at this stuff, I am still SHOCKED at the disparity of beliefs in the two camps. They are off by an order of magnitude!!

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ace on April 10, 2008 - 2:30am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Nate,

I think that the drop in C&C production is irreversible because too many countries are now in decline or on plateau. Angola has just said that 2 mbd is their peak about now. Russia is either in decline or on peak plateau now. Venezuela is on a plateau or slight decline. Offshore areas such as North Sea, USA Gulf of Mexico and Mexico are in serious decline. Canada's tar sands production has been increasing but offsets Canada's declining conventional production. Saudi Arabia's C&C peaked in 2005 and Khursaniyah's 500 kbd project has been delayed and Aramco will only admit to a 300 kbd capacity.

Increasing production from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Brazil and possibly Nigeria and Iraq won't be able to offset all the declining countries. The forecast is also an output of an excel model which contains over 350 world projects/regions, each with their own production profile.

I am also given further confidence by IEA's forecast in their World Energy Outlook 1998, prior to their acceptance of the overoptimistic USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000.
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2006/02/usgs-world-petroleum-assessment-...
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/usgs2000/

Oil Supply Profile to 2030 - click to enlarge
source: page 100 http://www.iea.org/Textbase/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=1244

The chart above shows a crude oil peak in about 2012 assuming that the total ultimate recoverable reserves (URR) are 2,300 billion barrels. I think that this estimate is high. Colin Campbell's URR estimate is about 2,230 billion barrels but this includes 143 billion barrels yet to be discovered. So Campbell's revised known URR is lower at about 2,100 billion barrels. This lower estimate pushes the IEA peak forward. My estimate is that the world total URR for C&C is closer to 1,900 billion barrels as I think that Campbell's URR estimates for OPEC countries are too high which brings peak C&C further forward.
http://www.aspo-ireland.org/contentFiles/newsletterPDFs/newsletter88_200...

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BrianT on April 10, 2008 - 9:11am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Nate: I have read forecasts like 21 trillion-a country by country breakdown is never provided, which lessens the credibility of these claims greatly. Just a guess: Russia 4 trillion, SA 6 trillion, Canada 5 trillion, Venez 4 trillion? The numbers always look more ridiculous when listed by country.

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