<The Energy Scene in IndiaThe Oil DrumDrumBeat: April 10, 2008>

25 comments on Maryland Legislation Taps Energy Efficiency as the "First Fuel"

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Neven911 on April 10, 2008 - 12:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ace is it significant that this bloomberg piece puts

500,000 barrel-a-day Shaybah oil field expansion

whereas this megaprojects page has it at 250,000

Neven

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ace on April 10, 2008 - 1:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Neven,

I think Bloomberg just made a mistake.

Aramco's official source says a 250 kbd expansion on Dec 2008 bringing Shaybah's total capacity to 750 kbd.
http://www.saudiaramco.com/irj/go/km/docs/SaudiAramcoPublic/FactsAndFigu...

Bloomberg's article does say that "Aramco will add a further 250,000 barrels a day by the end of the year when its 500,000 barrel-a-day Shaybah oil field expansion..." So the first part of their sentence is right.

What is interesting in Bloomberg's article is that Khursaniyah will only produce 300 kbd but "will eventually add 500,000 barrels a day to the country's production capacity". Maybe Khursaniyah will only ever produce 300 kbd.

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Neven911 on April 10, 2008 - 3:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ace

The 300kbpd is on start up, so possibly they will ramp up (as you have said before). The bigger question is how do they get to 12mbpd by the end of 2009? Close on an increase of 3mbpd from what they did in 2007 and just over 2 mbpd of megaprojects, so no decline and more than their telling us? I'd appreciate your take on it.

Neven

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ace on April 10, 2008 - 5:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Neven,

The short answer is that Aramco won't be producing 12 mbd of crude, although they might say they have the capacity. Please refer to some of the jokes on capacity by westexas.
http://www.theoildrum.com/user/westexas

Aramco’s new project additions do not offset the natural production declines of their existing fields as shown by the chart below. In addition, Aramco’s so-called surplus capacity is heavy oil which can’t be produced since there is not enough surplus refinery capacity to process their heavy oil. Consequently, Aramco’s production will, at best, remain on a plateau for the next couple of years.

Saudi Arabia Crude Oil & Lease Condensate Production to 2080 - click to enlarge

For a long answer please read section 5 of my Feb 2008 oil forecast
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3623

For more info please read my story on Saudi Arabia’s use of propaganda which includes a detailed discussion on discovered oil in place and recovery factors.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3665

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