<The Energy Scene in IndiaThe Oil DrumDrumBeat: April 10, 2008>

25 comments on Maryland Legislation Taps Energy Efficiency as the "First Fuel"

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Neven911 on April 10, 2008 - 3:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ace

The 300kbpd is on start up, so possibly they will ramp up (as you have said before). The bigger question is how do they get to 12mbpd by the end of 2009? Close on an increase of 3mbpd from what they did in 2007 and just over 2 mbpd of megaprojects, so no decline and more than their telling us? I'd appreciate your take on it.

Neven

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ace on April 10, 2008 - 5:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Neven,

The short answer is that Aramco won't be producing 12 mbd of crude, although they might say they have the capacity. Please refer to some of the jokes on capacity by westexas.
http://www.theoildrum.com/user/westexas

Aramco’s new project additions do not offset the natural production declines of their existing fields as shown by the chart below. In addition, Aramco’s so-called surplus capacity is heavy oil which can’t be produced since there is not enough surplus refinery capacity to process their heavy oil. Consequently, Aramco’s production will, at best, remain on a plateau for the next couple of years.

Saudi Arabia Crude Oil & Lease Condensate Production to 2080 - click to enlarge

For a long answer please read section 5 of my Feb 2008 oil forecast
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3623

For more info please read my story on Saudi Arabia’s use of propaganda which includes a detailed discussion on discovered oil in place and recovery factors.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3665

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