 | National Liquid Fuels Vulnerability Assessment | The Oil Drum | The Record Falls - January 2008 is the New World Record for Crude Oil (plus Condensate) Production |  |
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The Record Falls. January 2008 is the New Record
The EIA’s latest International Petroleum Monthly report is out. World C+C production for January was 74,466,000 million barrels per day. That is 178,000 barrels per day above the old record set in May of 2005.
More later after I have digested the numbers.
Ron Patterson
The corucopians are going to have a field day on this one. I can sense them jerking off right now.
If you examine the data you will find there is little for the cornucopians to cheer about. The big gains, since May of 05, were Angola-up 822,000 bp/d, Azerbaijan-up 506,000 bp/d, Iraq-up 250,000 bp/d and Russia-up 459,000 kb/d. Angola is almost at her peak and Azerbaijan will get there in just a few months. Russia is now in decline. Iraq is a big question mark.
My math was a little off when I figured the amount that production was up from May of 2005. The amount was actually 168,000 bp/d rather than 178,000 bp/d. I did the data by pencil instead of on my spreadsheet. I should have known better. Sorry about that.
Ron Patterson
Hello DarRonian,
Excellent observations. There are many components to the fugue that is playing. Margin of error seems to be one. What role does Time play? Since we know we have to run harder and faster just to keep up, how much energy is spent acquiring more Energy? Do we naturally use the sweet stuff to extract the harder to acquire Energy? I would say factoring in the 2nd Law were about 5mb/day off where the world needs to be just to stay above the constrains placed on the whole. Am I off base here?
f3
Does the main page have internet indigestion?
Are these stats subject to revision?
Yes, the revisions often go back 12 months.
Thanks. Still, I do hope Jan. 08 was record breaking. That solves my dillema saving or borrowing to get solar power. BTW, many thanks to all who contributed to that discussion in yesterdays' DB. Enlighting, literaly and figurative :-)
PaulusP: "Thanks. Still, I do hope Jan. 08 was record breaking. That solves my dillema saving or borrowing to get solar power."
I hope you're just kidding. You think the global economy is that closely-correlated with the exact number of barrels of oil produced? Reduce the production by 168,001 barrels & it's armaggedon? The critical situation is that world demand for oil is greater than global production, even if production is increasing yet. But I tend to agree with some of yesterday's posters who think that it's better to wean ourselves from electricity rather than cling to the illusion that we can be some of the few bright lights amidst the ruins of civilization.
Thanks for your input.
"You think the global economy is that closely-correlated with the exact number of barrels of oil produced?"
Yes, I do. But not with the "exact" amount of barrels, and neither do I think it's armagedon if you take these 168K off again. I just hope the world is able to keep up plateau production longer then I initially believed. At the same time ramping up production means less will be left for my kids, so I do not endorse unsustainable management of a finite resource (of which the use itself is unsustainable by definition).
I for one, see clearly the limits of "renewables", including solar derived electricity. The limits I talk about is that every renewable energy source is basically dependent on FF in one way or the other. But if I can arrange to get solar power it has added benefits. This includes being secure of power, but last and not least, I think it will save me money. I expect electricity to get more and more expensive. Even now it takes about 15 years to break even on PV, I'm very patient(angling teaches you that, besides other things). And yes, eventually humanity has to do without electricity.
I find a new high to oil production compared to May 2005 to be in the eye of the beholder. On a per capita basis oil production has been falling since 1971 if I remember correctly. Peak Oil has been happening on that basis for over 30 years. Peak Oil is a long term phenomenon and even several months or a few years of up ticks does not invalidate the theory. World population and oil demand continue to grow against a finite resource base.
Logic rules. Numbers are the servant of logic and not the other way around. Do not let numbers and data control!
It is the excessive emphasis on numbers and data here at TOD that lead to the biggest mistakes. Logic takes into account relevant factors outside the realm of numbers and data and it makes sense of numbers and data which could otherwise be misused. It is the boss.
Agreed. Your Olduvai analogy is very relevant to the discussion, oil being the life-juice of an, yet still, ever expanding industrial society.
But I would say oil production not crashing now can be considered "good" news.
Not really-the guys whose oil production forecasts have been most accurate have some scary stuff right up ahead-this IMO is less than a blip.Unrelated topic never discussed on TOD: Canada, a top supplier to the USA, is currently importing more oil per capita than the USA-doesn't look good in terms of ELM.
I once bowled a 280 in a bowling game... Before and after that I was bowling between 80 and 120... I'm sure I'll hit that 280 and hit 300 every time after that, as long as I keep drilling myself on my hooks.
Wait, nevermind, I don't bowl. An abberation doesn't set the standard, just as a win against the #1 team doesn't transport the worst team to the #1 spot. There's bound to be bumps.. What I'm concerned would be a rolling 6 month average. That tells a lot more to me than monthly spikes/declines.
Well, it is an additional supply of 178 seconds (that's almost 3 minutes!) a day of oil use above the old record.