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367 comments on The Record Falls - January 2008 is the New World Record for Crude Oil (plus Condensate) Production

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advancednano on April 13, 2008 - 12:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Canada has new natural gas discoveries in BC.

http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/04/some-natural-gas-and-oil-plays.html

The Horn River Basin, very little was known about the play until Feb 28, 2008, when Houston-based EOG Resources Inc. said it might have reserves of six trillion cubic feet - the same as Mackenzie Delta, Northwest Territories, and a figure that would increase Canada’s total proved reserves by roughly 10 per cent.

EnCana Corp. of Calgary - which claims the initial discovery of Horn River’s potential - and partner Apache Corp. of Houston may also have 6 trillion cubic feet of gas, Apache said in early February.

Montney natural gas is potentially one of the largest economically viable resource plays in North America, says a report by Raymond James Ltd.

Estimates for gas content in the sandstones, siltstones and shale sequences of the Triassic-aged Montney formation in northeastern British Columbia put the resource size at about 50 trillion cubic feet (tcf) over an area of about 680 square miles (73 billion cubic feet per section). This estimate is near the bottom end of the range of the B.C. government estimates of 30 tcf for the Upper Montney and 50 tcf in the Lower Montney in B.C. alone. the report says.
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I will adjust my predictions (not speculating quite as much on the smaller production).

2006, 2007 were flat oil production years so roughly 3.5-4 million b/d of megaprojects has gone to offsetting decline. So 3 to 3.5 million b/d is the projected excess from 2008, 2009. So it would be 6-7 million barrels per day to be added net of any decline for the end of 2009 and into 2010 as those new additions scale up. If the increase in large projects also indicates more small projects then say 0.5-1.5 million b/d each year from that increase.

So if we are at 87.3 million b/d Jan 2008.
Then my prediction is a little over 90 million b/d at the end of 2008 (not the full 3.5-5 million b/d increase because of lag in scaling)
For the end of 2009, over 94 million b/d and for the end of 2010, over 97 million b/d.

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Undertow on April 13, 2008 - 1:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

So if we are at 87.3 million b/d Jan 2008.
Then my prediction is a little over 90 million b/d at the end of 2008 (not the full 3.5-5 million b/d increase because of lag in scaling)
For the end of 2009, over 94 million b/d and for the end of 2010, over 97 million b/d.

So, to be clear, you are predicting that world total liquids will (on average) increase by between 300,000 and 400,000 b/d every month from now until the end of 2010?

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WebHubbleTelescope on April 13, 2008 - 3:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"The Horn River Basin, very little was known about the play until Feb 28, 2008 .."

Hmm, you know I have been posting about oil stuff for quite awhile but I don't recall ever intentionally using the word "play" to describe a prospective reservoir. I always knew what it meant, but it seemed to insider talk for my tastes. So when I see it used, I immediately think about the possibility that AdvancedNano reads too many press briefings or worse, is some sort of shill.

A similar thing occurs when I read about an earthquake. If people read only newspapers, everyone would go around calling it a "temblor". Now I look it up and find it is just Spanish for "earthquake". So these journalists go around and use the word Temblor because they probably secretly want to impress somebody. Or they happen to be a Mexican seismographer.

Play (n): Oil industry jargon for a prospective reservoir. Used by investors to hype something.

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advancednano on April 14, 2008 - 12:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I did cut and paste a some of the sentences from the press release on the natural gas discovery. So what. I gathered information (which happened to be company reports and press releases) on over a dozen of the biggest oil projects. It seems likely that if an oil project is going to start producing or is producing this year then the company working on it would have a pretty good sense of it was going to happen. If a company says that they are going to start up a project this month, I would tend to believe them since there is little uncertainty. If they are promising for the next year or later then a lot more can go wrong.

So I added information and research to this oildrum discussion. My website http://nexbigfuture.com you can see that I have almost 2100 articles (43 of which are about oil). You and other here whenever they see any information from a company or from someone who has a position that is positive on any industry or company have a knee jerk reaction ... shill. Which is an assertion without facts.

You parse one or two words in one of serveral 1000 word posts.

Why don't you try to find some information about why particular projects will not happen if you believe your case (as one of the other commenters Robert Marsdon did). Bring some information and research to your position.

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advancednano on April 14, 2008 - 12:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes my prediction is an average of 225,000 b/d increase in 2008
avg 333,000 b/d increase in 2009
and avg 250,000 b/d increase in 2010.
Overall avg 277,000 b/d from now to the end of 2010.

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367 comments on The Record Falls - January 2008 is the New World Record for Crude Oil (plus Condensate) Production

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