![]() | The Record Falls - January 2008 is the New World Record for Crude Oil (plus Condensate) Production | The Oil Drum | RFK and Garbage Trucks: Two Measures of Success | ![]() |
232 comments on DrumBeat: April 12, 2008
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Show without comments | PDF version
232 comments on DrumBeat: April 12, 2008
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Show without comments | PDF version
Search The Oil Drum with Google
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
- Medical Dark Matter
- Does it Make Sense to Move to a New Location because of Peak Oil?
- Men's Response to Shifting Roles after Peak Oil
TOD:Europe
- Offshore Wind taking off - some background on installation issues
- What difference would Nord Stream mean to European energy supply?
- Peak Fat
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- Meet Trev: A two-seater renewable energy vehicle
- The Bullroarer - Friday 5th February 2010
- The Bullroarer - Monday 1st February 2010
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- Early Warning
- The Energy Blog
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.”
—Richard Feynman
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Dave Murphy, Engineer-Poet, Glenn, Heading Out, Jason Bradford, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Nate Hagens, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:ANZ: aeldric, Big Gav, Phil Hart
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.










GAIA Host Collective
What is required to displace Heavy Trucks (and some Air Freight) in the USA ?
Ton-mile capacity is one issue, but speed and reliability is as important to get shippers to switch from road to rail. Until almost every shipper relocates to a rail spur, local and regional inter-modal service will allow "last mile" delivery by trucks.
ATM, I am looking at electrifying 65,000 of the 178,000 miles of US railroads, upgrading 25,000 miles with better signals, double tracks (or much enhanced single tracks) plus the almost 8,500 miles illustrated below.
CSX Railroad has proposed an upgrade on their East Coast Line, from Washington DC to Miami. Grade separated for 1,200 miles with 3 tracks (4 tracks from Richmond to DC).
Two tracks for regular freight operating at 60 to 79 mph, and one track (2 DC-Richmond) for passengers and express freight (low and medium density) at 100 to 110 mph.
This appeals to me for relative cost effectiveness and the ability to beat trucking for speed and reliability and even take some air modal share. At speeds above 125 mph, the ability to operate medium density freight and passenger trains on the same tracks diminishes.
I would open up and upgrade Amtrak's NorthEast Corridor (Washington DC to Boston) so it is not on the map of new tracks.
I have looked for what corridors in the USA could support enough traffic to justify "CSX" single tracks of semi-High Speed Rail. Passengers, freight or a combination. Vegetables and fruit would be major sources of freight for these lines.
Another 25,000 miles of railroads would be upgraded with double tracks, better signals and comparable upgrades, so express freight should operate at 50 to 60 mph when off one of the red lines.
I did not make a connection between Tuscon AZ and San Antonio TX, despite the heavy shipments of California fruits and vegetables to the East, because a section of 60 to 79 mph will not lead to excessive spoilage (much of this route is across flat desert). Not enough long distance passenger service either. (Most people will, IMHO, pay 2.5x as much to travel by air for distances of 1,000+ miles. And those that prefer rail will accept a stretch at lower speeds).
I would like constructive criticism on my choices, both those routes missed and "Why do you have one there ?"
Again, this is for both passengers and freight at 100 to 110 mph as a part of a roughly $400 billion electrified railroad upgrade (electrify 65,000 of 178,000 miles, 25,000 miles of double track or much enhanced single track and the below "CSX" type track).
I see speeds above 125 mph for passenger & package only service as a luxury that the USA should build "later".
If the economy of the USA alters as the system outlined is being built, adjustments can be made (I wonder about the two rail lines to Detroit myself, but they are also a connection to Ontario). And although I recognize the value of local production, I also see no practical way of supplying 5 different locally grown fruits and vegetables (dietary recommendation) to Northeast residents in February. And the fruit and vegetable capacity of California and Florida far exceeds local needs.
One of the roles of transportation is to transfer goods from areas of surplus to areas of shortage.
Once built, they should require relatively little maintenance for a half century or so.
Best Hopes for Non-Oil Transportation,
Alan
Alan, have you got any idea of where the trade-off points between diesel trains and electrifying the track come in?
Obviously it is a moving target, depending on the price of diesel or synfuel or whatever vs the cost of the electric and installation, but there must be indicators of how dense traffic needs to be to make electrification worthwhile for any given traffic level.
Even though it is relatively inefficient I am wondering if non-electric trains running on synfuel of some sort might not be a better option than electrification for remote rural areas - I know that on some lines in the UK which are lightly used it is actually more fuel efficient to travel by car with a couple of people in it than to catch the train, so it is obviously horses for courses.
That is why I propose electrifying only 65,000 of 178,000 miles of US railroads. A difficult determination to make exactly without extensive knowledge of specific railroad operations. At $120/barrel, perhaps 4 trains/day might be break even (MANY variables !)
OTOH, there are operating savings to an all electrified railroad. No loco switching, no fuel storage & handling, no diesel maintenance.
After Phase I of electrifying 65,000 miles of main lines and heavy spur lines, I think that regions will switch to 100% electrification. West Coast first IMHO.
Best Hopes,
Alan
And as the discretionary side of the economy continues to implode, we are going to need the jobs.
QUITE true !
And investing in long lived energy efficient infrastructure rather than consumerism has many benefits for us and those that come after us.
Best Hopes for Making a Virtue of Necessity,
Alan
Yes, there will be plenty of work to do, but how will the people be paid?
We're looking at local currencies as the federal dollar likely implodes.
From my profile:
http://www.complementarycurrency.org/materials.php
http://www.communitycurrency.org/resources.html
One interesting new development in locomotive power is the hybrid diesel/electric locomotive. GE has developed a main haul hybrid locomotive and Canadian manufacturer Railpower has a switching hybrid locomotive. Since most conventional diesel/electric locomotives are already essentially series hybrid vehicles without the batteries, the technology is pretty simple to add. Just replace the resistance banks currently used for dynamic braking with batteries. They usually put in smaller diesel generators, since the batteries contribute significantly to the power. Railpower also has developed a hybrid rubber-tired gantry crane for handling large shipping containers.
Hybrid switchers could become essentially the equivalent to a Chevy Volt with overnight battery re-charging stations, further reducing diesel fuel requirements and emissions. Also, by adding electrical overhead pickups, main haul hybrid locomotives could be flex-fuel vehicles, running as pure electric locomotives where electrical distribution allows for overhead lines and switching to their diesel generators where the lines aren’t economic.
Dave, if you get a chance check out an article in the current issue of 'The Railway' magazine in the UK on how "Green are the railways".
All types of railway locomotion are compared via thermal efficiency with some interesting conclusions, ie for passenger transport a diesel loco with coaching stock is deemed the most efficient.
Now I know why when in Berlin last year the DB were running regional services with diesel, double decker coaches, and driving unit on the end. All the advantages of multiple unit operation without a required loco run around at the turn around point but with all the efficiences of single loco operation.
Since living most of my life in the Mid West, I have seen a large number of track systems lay dead (not maintained) from years of back country motorcycle riding, and in every small town thru out the Mid West there are rail lines and sidings not used for decades. The Mid West was built on rail, Chicago a perfect example of underutilized track systems.
My question is, why is there a need to build new systems from scratch, when the ramp up time would be very short taking over the old systems and is the information available from the current rail companies as to where they are?
My grandfather worked as a switchman for 50 years on the Missouri Pacific Line out of Dupo Ill. He told me as a youth, "this country was built on Steel Rail and will always need the Trains".
BZ
With some minor exceptions, the red lines are on operating rail lines .
There are enough abandoned rail lines for the rest. The San Diego-Phoenix section would be built largely on abandoned or unused ROW for example.
I can see the reuse of abandoned rail lines on a large scale as spur lines. OTOH, only a few new main lines are needed.
Ownership and operation of the rail lines is an open question. I would prefer the existing railroads to own these "red lines" but with public trackage rights (just as any licensed airline can operate out of any airport) with regulated fees paid to the owner.#
An underlying theme is to build not "just enough" rail capacity, with frequent bottlenecks, but to overwhelm the demand with capacity. This is, IMHO, needed to beat truck speeds and capacity.
Best Hopes for Speed an Reliability,
Alan
# This is the new model in the EU, and it seems to be working reasonably well. French TGV trains on German tracks, Swiss trains on Italian tracks, etc.
Just read where Norfolk is demanding the US pay for
infrastructure out building, improvements.
When the US does this, then either Big Rail is
cut up into regional or the whole thing is nationalized.
Either/or.
This is similar to my philosophy on mass transit. If the goal is taking vehicles off the road (and reducing car ownership), then having every bus/train full (in order to maximize fares etc) is a failure. In order to be as convenient as a car, you have to run the nearly-empty seats at 3AM. If this requires automation or grade separation or quadruple-tracking or multiple unit cars, so be it, but it has to be available in order to replace cars. And ideally, so long as it's using high-efficiency electric motors, it should ENCOURAGE ridership, by not giving regular riders a per-ride fare to pay. DC Metro does not have a monthly unlimited-ride pass, and that frustrates me.
More liberal countries have mass transit systems that we can only dream of, and sometimes even do it free - IMO profit has been a somewhat corrupting influence over here(as compared to the heavily subsidized airports and roads). If a subsidized mass transit system costs 1 billion a year to run, and gets back 200 million in fares from 10 million riders(w/ the balance in subsidies) - we really need to look at what would happen if we reduces fares to zero. If 30 million riders still cost the same 1 billion dollars (no fare-collection inefficiency, much fuller seats, and a few vehicles added to peak times)... Somebody has to ask themselves - is increasing the budget by 25% and reducing the number of cars on the road worthy of attempting that course?
Alan, do you know of any systems that fit this description?
Toll roads (ones which are actually required to pay for themselves) can be quite unpopular. Tokyo has a giant, spectacular bridge/tunnel into the bay that remains little-used all day because of the $30 toll(which was reduced from $50(where the bridge was completely empty) after firing the guy that coordinates income estimates with traffic flow estimates, who made a $12B mistake) - free roads have the opposite effect. I posit that this effect is seen in transit as well, and that maximizing profit is a distinctly different course than trying to reduce traffic & car ownership.
I agree with a lot of what you're saying here -- I can never understand why people in LA constantly complain about traffic while at the same time the MTA has to raise fares because it is so underfunded. Make transit FREE and it could have a lot more impact on traffic.
No. Make transit FREE and it will become so infested with vagrants and gangbangers that no regular citizen will dare to ride it except maybe at the height of the rush hour, and maybe not even then. The Staten Island Railway has had problems of this sort for years, ever since they stopped collecting fares except at the ferry (last, northernmost stop). IIRC we discussed this issue here a week or two ago, in connection with one of the European cities.
What about a system similar to aircraft now?
Economy (near free), and Business (the bulk of the train), so that commuters can buy their way away from most of the vagrants.
The new Dubai Metro will have three car trains.
One for women and children, one "VIP" with leather seats and one Economy car.
AFAIK, the only "class" system Urban Rail.
Alan
It still leaves the problem of intimidation and muggings at the stations. And subsidized buses and railcars are a hellishly expensive way to provide free heat and A/C for the vagrants and gangbangers.
And anyway, with the cost of energy going ever upward, it seems very, very foolish to subsidize energy-intensive services, especially when the subsidized purpose - riding around and around for no reason at all - is no purpose at all.
In Sweden, sometimes the social services pay the bus fare for homeless people so they can ride a bus all night during winter.
Hello PaulS,
We have free buses here in Chapel Hill, NC. It's a college town so if every college student drove it would overwhelm the road system. The bus is free. There are all kinds of people that use the buses: Students and UNC workers, families with children, some homeless, mexican workers...perhaps because this is a small town that it works. Even grade school students use it. There is also a carrier for bikes so you can use your bike and take it with you. We have a good bicycle pathway system which is improving year to year. It works for us.
"...perhaps because this is a small town that it works. Even grade school students use it." Yes indeed.
In bigger places, many parents will not allow their grade school kids to walk anywhere on their own, much less use a city bus on their own, even though IMO the objective risk in the cases I see is much less than it was where and when I grew up doing things like that. But times have changed - these days, putting the kids on a city bus might almost be counted as reckless endangerment. Even if it doesn't earn a hostile visit from Social Services, it will draw the opprobrium of aunts and uncles, of friends and neighbors. So the kids get chauffeured to and from school, or, failing that, a parent (usually the mother, it seems) waits with them every morning at the school bus stop, and waits again every afternoon until the school bus arrives.
This may be a symptom of a larger issue as Mike M downthread posits, but all the same, it is what parents do. And, after all, once in a blue moon something bad does indeed happen. When it does, it's hyped up in scary bright yellow lettering on freeway signs, and retold endlessly in breathless TV reports, all across the entire country. Under those circumstances, and after more than 40 years of the "consumer" movement browbeating people and scaring them out of their wits about even the most utterly insignificant risks, parents will not be handling the issue differently anytime soon.
I lived in Austin Texas when they did a 1 year no fare experiment. generally considered a failure. Homeless rode to get free a/c and heat and napped in the back. Gangs of kids rode just to do something and were rowdy. "Choice" riders (those that owned a car) dropped.
Miami's gadgetbahn, the MetroMover, went fare free a few years ago with minimal problems. Perhaps because it is an elevated system connecting downtown office buildings.
Portland has a "fareless square" that seems to work OK, (some conflict with rowdy kids etc. riding and some related crime).
DC Metro does not have an unlimited ride pass because it would encourage more ridership and they are capacity limited. They want to allocate that capacity to the highest use (off peak fares are cheap, peak expensive).
My priorities would be a well built, well maintained and clean system first, and subsidized fares second. Targeted DEEP discounts for handicapped, elderly (off hours at least), children, disabled, those on food stamps, etc. is a better approach IMHO than broad based cheap to everyone.
New Orleans has free rides to all handicapped residents and school children going to school, and 60% discounts for elderly for example.
Alan
Seniors ride the Seoul subway for free. They go to the ticket window for a free ticket and the start of each ride. Seems like a good idea - driving in Seoul can be tough at any age, and it helps give seniors a little more independence and one less financial worry. It would be good to see the AARP and their non-American equivalents push for this; maybe they already are.
Alan It would seem to me that the issue of "muggings" and "rowdies" is a symptom of a bigger issue than the transportation of a "displaced car using society". I do think that as we move forward we need to seriously re-think why we need to move around so much. The whole notion of "Time is Money" seems to be at the root of much of this issue. I do think that a return to a more intergrated and improved rail system for the transport of required goods and services is needed. When the "Disaster Capitalists" see a way to make more money than they are currently making in places like Iraq, New Orleans, Atlanta, Sri Lanka, etc then you will see a return of the rails courtesy of KBR, Halliburton, CH2M Hill, Lockheed Martin, et al and they will use the same taxpayers money that have been using all along.
Check out the book The shock Doctrine by "Naomi Klein" to get a more complete picture of the way I see it developing.
Vouchers could always be provided to those that are too poor to afford the transport fares that they legitimately need. We do the same thing now with food stamps and other things. The vouchers could be configured to enable people to get where they really need to go, while not being enough to just give people with anti-social behavior issues unlimited free rides.
Alternatively, we could provide free passes to everyone subject to revocation for criminal, rowdy, other anti social behavior, or using the transit vehicle as a way of loitering.
Regardless, there are many people who are just offended by having to share any form of transportation with those who don't rise to their class standards. Taking the bus is just simply beneath most people as it is associated with the transit choice of the poor and non white.
When push comes to shove and people have no choice, lives will be re-arranged to accommodate what the transport industry is capable of offering.
I have heard so many times the refrain, "Oh, but people are not going to be willing to give up their cars."
When having a car is simply no longer viable, they will be given up in spite of the inconvenience of using whatever the locally prevailing best option is.
In 1970, public buses had 4% of commuters in Washington DC,
Last year more people took public transit to work in DC than drove alone in their cars & SUVs. (Cars with 1 or more people still outnumber transit pax).
I use that as proof that people can be lured out of their cars by reasonably good (not great) Urban Rail.
Best Hopes for Better and More Urban Rail,
Alan
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/04/11/when-cheap-housing-...
April 11, 2008, 2:23 pm
When Cheap Housing Isn’t: How Transportation Changes the Equation
Posted by Keith Johnson
Ana Campoy reports:
I've recently noticed that in Asheville NC they have an Emergency Ride Home program.
This program makes wonderfully good sense, and should be a real "winner" when it comes to encouraging people to consider alternatives to driving for their daily commute.
I am so impressed with this idea, I wish I could research it further and develop it into an article for TOD:Local, but I'm afraid I just don't have the time.
Subsidies are bad. The effect here in Sweden from subsidized mass transit and heavily taxed gasoline is that as oil has risen in price, the ticket price for mass transit has risen a lot faster than the gasoline at the pump, due to the leverage.
Assume fuel costs being 33%, wages 33% and capital costs (the buses and stations etc) 33%. Close enough to reality.
If the bus company get 75 SEK for every customer, and 25 SEK from the customer (roughly correct figures) and the price of diesel at the pump increases by 10%, but not the subsidy, then the bus company need to increase the ticket price by 3.3 SEK or 13.2%.
But the driver of a car has costs where fuel is only 20-25% of the total cost of the car per mile. A 10% increase in the cost of diesel (or gasoline) will only increase what he pays per mile by 2%.
So what has happened in Sweden as the fuel price has risen, is that the cost of mass transit has risen more than the price of gasoline. If a driver only looks at the cost of fuel, and ignores service, insurance, capital costs etc (which many do), they immediately see that mass transit has risen more than car fuel, so they stick to their cars.
Subsidized mass transit is doomed.
And anyway, the politicians does not want to pay more to mass transit. Sometimes they have "free mass transit day" here in Sweden, but they won't increase the number of busses, so you end up with a full bus and people being left at the bus stop, cursing. If it even stops, might just drive past unless someone is getting off.
I really don't see any solution, unless we see oil in four figures, which I belive we will eventually. But then the solution won't be mass transit, it will be massive unemployment so fewer people will go to work.
Unfortunately once a government subsidized transit system is implemented you are doomed to a high cost monopoly. Now that BART (Bay Area Rapid Transit) in San Francisco California, has a strangle hold on the Bay Area the union monopoly wants a total compensation per person of about $125,000 per year. This for train operators whose only job is to prevent the doors from trying to close if someone is standing in it. The trains were designed to run fully automated, but the union insists that thousands of employes are needed to keep it “safe”.
A monopoly by any other name is still a monopoly.
The reason they are striking for that much total compensation is that you need a salary that large to buy a house in Silicon Valley, or to rent an apartment for that matter. My sister ran an apartment complex ten years ago and she simply wouldn't rent to anybody that didn't have a family income of 65 thousand, which means a total compensation of 90 thousand, which is counting taxes and benefits. I understand that this seems high to you, but it really is expensive real estate around here.
The union isn't going to get the raise though. We're broke, we are running very large deficits statewide. Figure on a rollback in salaries as soon as house prices go back to normal.
You have touched on reasons why both government and corporate ownership and operation of toll goods does not work very well. The corporations just want to maximize profits, which means jam-packed mass transit during peak hours and no service at all when and where the riders are few. Governments tend to either pour in subsidies to the systems (resulting in better service when and where riders are few) but creating a black hole in their budgets, or they end up having to starve their systems in order to milk them for revenues to subsidize other projects and programs.
There is a better alternative, but to my knowledge it has rarely if ever been tried anywhere: public ownership of toll goods.
By public ownership, I mean that the toll good (mass transit system in this case) is owned and operated by a board of trustees, directly elected by the population of the service district and NOT appointed by the government. This point is crucial. Only by having the trustees b eing directly elected do you establish an effective feedback loop to assure that the right balance is maintained between fare prices and service extent and quality. If fares are rising too high, people have another alterntive than just driving their cars - they can vote for trustees that will run the system more efficiently and lower fares. If service quality is getting too poor and inconvenient, people have another alternative than just driving their cars - they can vote for trustees that will improve service quality, extend lines out to serve more people, and extend service schedules.
This is the only sure answer I know of to the problems you raise. Unfortunately, I'm not sure how to make it happen. Obviously, corporations hate this and want everyone to think it is the most evil thing in the world. Less obviously, governments and politicians also hate this, because it reduces their power a little. The only ones that might like this are the ordinary people that have to continue to suffer, but we all know how much THEY (we) count.
Don't know how familiar you are with the geography of southern California, but the history of rail into San Diego is fraught with problems trying to overcome what I may euphemistically call the elevation challenge. The easiest solution (for E-W) was to go through Mexico, and therein lay an additional challenge, especially if the US ever decides to build a truly secure border wall/fence.
As far as connecting California is concerned I doubt that the port of San Diego is that important (it is primarily a military asset.) Rather, connecting the agricultural output areas of the central valley, and perhaps the "inland empire", to the high speed network should take priority IMO.
Also, wonder if you have considered that one reason to continue the high speed rail from central AZ into west TX would be to handle the product going from the ports of LA/LB eastward? On any given day the string of Evergreen/Cosco containers going east is impressive.
I have limited knowledge of San Diego geography (never been there).
Going from Los Angeles to Phoenix was problematic, and San Diego has enough people to justify a link.
Union Pacific has an unused, but not abandoned, ROW from Yuma (CA border) to Phoenix. There is also (from memory) an abandoned RR ROW just north of the border (it may go south ?) out of San Diego.
Overall, I have budgeted over $100 billion (about $120) for about 8,500 miles. Thus the pressure to cut (a real world issue BTW).
I think that 60 to 79 mph transport through most of the West is doable (even when 100 mph freight service is available, many container shippers would prefer cheaper 60 mph service).
This is also true of many veggies and fruits that keep well. Onions and apples should not be expressed IMHO.
Would savings in time sensitives veggies pay the cost for 98% express travel vs. 75% express ? The passenger loads from LA to Houston and beyond would not be large, as long as flying is a higher cost option. So the economics would have to come from freight.
Would loads from California to Chicago go south or just head towards Kansas City at slower speeds ? Given the reduced miles from a direct route and the higher costs of higher speed (even @ 100 mph from LA to Chicago via San Antonio), most would take the shorter, slower route IMVHO. The fewer miles would reduce the time penalty.
Difficult questions, and perhaps delayed until Phase II.
Alan
One would think that Southern California with its roughly 20 million people would make for an excellent place to which to run high-ish speed rail, but the geographic challenges are large.
San Diego county is beautiful but the mountains are almost impassable even for autos, into the desert. There are only a couple of routes in and out of the county that handle all the traffic. The history of rail into San Diego is one of frustration - that is why today's major rail line follows the coast up into Orange county.
Here is the route that the San Diego and Arizona Eastern RR tried, going through Mexico:
http://www.sdrm.org/history/sda/photos/sdamap2.jpg
In modern times the Metropolitan Transit District took over the remaining ROW (one of the few smart things they've done, IMO) and leases some of the capacity to a couple of small freight companies. To give you an idea of what you are dealing with, here is the Wikipedia photo of one small portion of the route:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Carrizo_gorge.jpg
Getting out of LA going east... you likely will need to follow the valley as created by the San Andreas fault (earthquakes be damned....), as in I-10 (through Riverside county). To go NE, as towards Vegas, one runs into mountain troubles again but there is a rail line that winds through the mountains - I've watched the trains meander slowly through the passages on my (driving) trips to Vegas (as the rail line is close to I-15 in some spots.)
Residents/businesses in SB, Ventura, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernadino counties would have to use that one passage above.
So there you go, the irony of it all... a region of 20 million people, and thus a large need for transportation, but no obvious route out for high speed rail. Second irony - lots of sunshine (for solar generated electricity) but unlikely to find an electric rail road out of the place...
As for connecting the line all the way through to TX, I was not thinking so much about fresh produce but rather in servicing the needs of the Chinese companies whose ships land in LA or LB, and who wish to ship eastward to the mountain states.
I wonder if, as far as spending capital on electrifying rail, it would be better to concentrate on the portions of the US east of the Rockies initially, and let the Californians deal with building a regional network to get people/goods from SF to SD.
I wish I knew more of the topography of Southern CA (I may call some people involved in S Cal rail).
I note that the $60 billion California High Speed Rail project plans some large and long tunnels.
TBM driven tunnels have been decreasing in price by about 3%/year (inflation adjusted, i.e. flat costs in recent years).
Lower speeds allow smaller tunnels (and/or less fuel consumption).
Overall, I am budgeting about $14 million/mile. Some flat and easy stretches at $3 or $4 million/mile allow for more expensive sections.
BTW, there is an existing plan to double track and increase speeds to 110 mph from Los Angeles to San Diego just for "local" traffic. $4.2 billion for that section (2002 $).
If it was not such a high value market (freight and people) I would cut it from the list. Note that most of the "red lines" are east of the Mississippi.
H'mmmm...
Also, most of the containers from LA/Long Beach are heading east of the Mississippi River. The Panama Canal will be expanded in 2014 (new Pananmax ships = 2.5x old Panamax) and this will unclog a major bottleneck.
Alan,
Only East of LA is there a fairly level passage through to the East side of the Sierra, Yuma and into Arizona. San Diego to Yuma is blocked by the Cuyamaca range, and everything north of Bakersfield is blocked by the much higher Sierra. I don't remember the elevation of the pass between San Diego and El Centro but it is probably 3500 ft or more. I think LA to Barstow, Yuma, then Gila Bend, and Mesa is the better path, then North to Phoenix and South to Tucson. East from Tuscon through to Albequerque should also be possible, but on the other side of Albequerque there is another range.
I grew up in San Diego and Tucson and have vivid memories of laboring uphill with the AC off and the windows open, and then enjoying the downhill half. There were always older cars stopped by the road with radiators billowing steam.
It's funny how we have isolated ourselves from the elements with climate control and high horsepower engines. With electric vehicles, even trains, we'll need to again recognize the immense amount of energy required to ascend mountains or to keep cool in the hot desert. Travel at night can be wonderful, as is travel by train.
Keep up your crusade for reviving train travel. It makes a lot of sense.
Chris
Why in the name of all that is holy would you go up over the hills to Barstow first when you have a nice flat (relative to the I5 corridor) straight line out along the I10 all the way to Florida?
Take her straight along/above/below the I10 from LA through San Berdoo, Palm Springs an on to the Arizona border. Hell, the way things are going you may not even need a bridge to cross the Colorado River.
Cheers
Sorry, forgot about those hills. I only went that way a few times because we usually went by car between San Diego and Tucson.
Just out of curiousity, are the Sierras the main reason gasoline is so much more expensive in California? California isn't that much further from the Gulf than New England is, but our gas in the Northeast is a lot less than in CA.
FWIW, you can see some of the topography with Google Earth. Turn the thing down so you are looking from the side, and exaggerate the vertical scale a bit, and the mountains really show up well.
Alan,
My brother's buddy contacted you via e-mail. My bro and I came from So Cal. He can give you some quick pointers. The line I pointed out in another post on this sub-thread is the most direct. The only reason I can think of to need so many tunnels is if they are planning on going through the high desert vs. the low desert. The only reason I can think of to do that is avoid riding along the San Andreas. But, you have to go over it no matter what you do, unless the terminal is well east of LA and then burrows through the mountains.
You could also go south through Orange County then loop down and over to the temecula area or north into Riverside... but both would likely require some tunneling.
Going due East from LA would require no tunnel I can think of unless you want to avoid any gradient at all and tunnel through the small rise at the Redlands/Yucaipa border.
Cheers
I found a history of the San Diego and Arizona Railroad,
http://www.sdrm.org/history/sda/history.html
With several billion dollars, this section could be tunneled (and they did find an "All American" route, but more $), but the costs outweigh any advantages.
Best Hopes,
Alan
You talk about two levels of service - a premium (and faster service) for perishable stuff, and a standard service for stuff that doesn't need it. But isn't there additional cost in maintaining two different levels of service? What would be the extra cost in having just one level of service (at least in terms of the speed of the trains when going from one city to another)?
You could provide different levels of service at the switchyard. You could arrange things such that premium freight is unloaded first (perhaps putting all of the premium cars at the head of the train??).
Today's USA RRs have assorted capacity constraints, which prevent RRs from competing on speed and reliability with truck freight. And many cargoes cannot ship with today's RR speed and reliability.
Rule of thumb is that a single track with good sidings can handle 36 trains/day, double track 110 trains/day. Add 15% for electrification (faster acceleration & braking).
Look at the CSX proposal. 1,200 miles of grade separation. Three tracks, two regular, one high speed (two high speed trains, one N bound, the other S bound) can pass with one pulling over onto a slow track for several miles).
I think that one corridor could carry 100% of the East Coast rail and truck traffic without congestion. Perhaps 170 to 200 trains/day. Add a second corridor converging from the West and I have no doubts about capacity > demand.
CSX can reliably deliver cargoes at lower cost than trucks along the US East Coast (DC to Miami) and beyond to Boston with access to Amtrak's NEC (Note NEC congested at rush hour and needs some new tunnels under Baltimore and in Connecticut).
I see operational advantages more than disadvantages with the 3rd track being higher speed rather than a just interchangeable track (there are advantages the other way too).
Being able to cruise at 110 mph from, say, Charlotte to Atlanta or to Richmond/DC would attract passengers that 60 or 70 mph would not attract. Not as good as 180 mph, but still, IMHO, quite attractive vs. driving or flying.
And a dual use semi-high speed rail track can be justified by passengers PLUS express freight.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Supposing that your 110mph option was built, would it be possible to upgrade later to 180mph at any reasonable cost?
Otherwise the US will end up with a more or less permanently inferior and slower rail network to Europe - that may be the way it will go, but it would be nice to know if there are other options that could be utilised after we have got other energy sources up and running, assuming that we manage that without breakdown.
Thanks.
95% or so of US RR ROWs are 100' (30 m) wide. CSX proposes separating them enough (30' on one side from memory) that one track can be worked on and the other two kept open.
Only by violating that restriction can a 4th track be added to a 100' ROW. And expanding the radius of curves significantly means major ROW additions for curves.
Tilting trains add perhaps 30 mph (USA rail standard are different from EU and this # is not firm) at the price of much more expensive rolling stock (with higher maintenance as well).
I suspect that a Slow-Fast-Slow type upgrade would be possible, but with the number of express freights (SBB, SwissRail has designed special freight cars for 160 kph/100 mph service, not faster) fast A to B times will be "constrained".
Once established, express freights will not be dislodged (nor should they be).
There is a problem with physics and the "super elevation" (ramping) on curves for different weight/axle load cars with varying centers of gravity (pax has low center of gravity).
Upgrade tracks for 300 kph service and try to run freight on the same track (see under construction 44 km link between Spain & France) and it only works on straights or VERY large radius curves.
I can only see service above 140 mph (maybe 150 mph) on a separate track with mainly new ROW. I am not confident above 125 mph on the semi-HSR I have proposed with "reasonable" upgrades.
Best Hopes for One Day Cursing My Name for Clogging up All the Good ROWs with these Damm Slow 110 mph trains,
Alan
Our passenger service might be inferior, but our freight RR service would be the best in the world :-)
Alan
Alan,
What is the difference between high speed track and low speed track?
How is the track used by bullet trains like Shinkansen different from regular tracks?
Besides tie spacing and methods of affixing rail to maintain precise gauge (I am NOT an expert here), the biggest issue is super elevation. This is how much the outboard rail is raised above the inboard rail and angled away from horizontal.
Heavy freight cars with high center of gravity will derail on HSR track curves and their high super elevations.
HSR can handle MUCH steeper grades than freight rail (Frankfurt-Koln has 4% grades for example) and regular freight likes grades no more than 1.2% and begins to fail below 2% (all sorts of issues in those #s, extreme cases can handle almost 3%). Being able to handle terrain without digging or elevating is a cost saver for HSR.
HSR requires MUCH larger radius curves than freight rail.
Coal trains and the like beat the rail and rail bed severely and make it unsuitable for high speed rail. Those my caveat of light and medium density express freight.
Hopes that Helps,
Alan
BTW, mixed use is possible, as long as extremely large radius curves are used. Mixed freight and HSR on Frankfurt-Koln required
* maximum grade of 1.25% (occasionally 2.0%)
* curves with small superelevation and minimum radii of 4,800 m to 7,000 m
* maximum line speed of 250 to 300 km/h
HSR only required
* maximum grade : 4.0%
* minimum radius : 3,350 m
* maximum speed : 300 km/h (186 mph)
Building for mixed use costs significantly more if there are many curves required and/or in hilly terrain.
EU axle loads for freight are slightly over half of US axle loads and the EU does not (AFAIK) run double stack containers (higher center of gravity). USA figures for mixed freight & HSR would be more extreme.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cologne-Frankfurt_high-speed_rail_line
My solution is to build "improved freight" quality tracks and run at lower, but still fast, speeds. 110 mph leaves a small cushion (as does excluding high density/high axle load freight), 125 mph pax service appears to be about the limit for economical mixed use IMHO.
The main difference is the turning radius of the tracks, the straight forward parts are the same. To have different speeds you need enough parallell tracks and thus it becomes a right of way isses. Make the straight parts wide enough, buy areas for wide curves when it is cheap and plan for building new parts with greater turning radius.
Large turning radius and low steepness of the track are cost drivers since they drive the ammont of cuts and embankments, tunnels and bridges and also makes it harder to round obstacles and NIMBY areas.
High speed railways for light trains like passanger only trains can accept steeper tracks by using stronger engines and accepting a slow down travelling upwards and this can save significant money. This has been used in France but the intrest of using it in Sweden where we only can afford to build high speed rail in small increments is low since most of the tracs will carry some cargo traffic or be backup for cargo carring tracs. One non high speed example for this kind of trade off is the new commuter train station in central Stockholm that has started building for wich the new commuter trains has gotten stronger engines to make it easier to thread the train tunnels thru the swiss cheese bedrock in central Stockholm.
The central question for high speed passanger rail in the US is probably your economical strenght in about 2015-2035. You ought to be able to afford all new high speed rail lines, incremental improvements in your current infrastructure should help this since it is good for your economy.
One thing to remember Magnus is that US rail axle loads are extreme and we ship double stack containers, which makes the center of gravity higher.
Do not underestimate the issues of super elevation (Swedish tilting trains were invented to compensate for low super elevations of freight track).
Best Hopes,
Alan
Double stacking would not be a good idea on our electrified railways ;-) But we have a slowly moving project to enlarge the free space to handle a 3,6 x 3,6 m containers, the pioneer customer were Stora-Enso oversize paper containers.
I should have thought about it since specialized wagons for outsize heavy cargo like high voltage transformers use a system for sideways displacement of the load to handle the elevation in curves and obstacels on one side. I read some more about them when one such wagon capsized this winter wreacking itself and a very big transformer.
Alan, your California route looks like it runs: San Francisco > Bakersfield > L.A. > San Diego. Is this right? What about the central valley (Sacramento to Bakersfield), or are you classifying this an upgrade case like the northeast corridor?
I ALMOST included a spur from San Jose to Sacramento, but thought the cost for the few saved minutes perhaps not worth it. That is an expensive and built up area. Even 100 mph service requires a wider buffer zone (180 mph even more).
These are straight lines between urban areas, so subtleties of routing may not show. I foresee vegetables being trucked (smaller trucks) from field to central depot on rail siding. Two, three, or four times/day during harvest a small loco comes by and picks up full refrigerated rail cars, which are brought to a switchyard. And every few hours a refrigerated unit train leaves the switchyard (high value means that trains can be as short as 20 and 30 cars, but longer is better).
Should that unit train leave on 60 or 110 mph tracks ?
How far till the unit train reaches the semi-HSR tracks is part of the equation, and I do not know the California tracks well enough.
Let me investigate.
But I hope that this illustrates my thought process.
Alan
I wonder what the tipping point for large scale greenhousing becomes feasible? Eastern NC, the DelMarVa peninsula and Southern NJ all have lots of open space, good soil, and relative proximity to large eastern markets. Being close to the ocean, none of them has terribly harsh winters. NC has a hurricane problem, but AFAIK, NJ and the DelMarVa have never had a direct hit.
Florida could benefit from ocean transport, as it's the cheapest way to move things, and would only be slower than trucks to the Northeast market by a day. California may have a real problem. The Imperial Valley is a natural desert, but is only productive through massive irrigation.
Anyone remember how to store food in Mason jars? My mom did it in the 60's and 70's. Maybe it will make a comeback. . .
Well, some of us still can food. Besides vegetables and fruit juice-we have a juice press-(hot water bath canning mostly) we also can meats (pressure canning). However, it's clear a lot of people have stopped canning. A neighbor offered us a lot of canning jars from his mom and we were the only people he knew who still canned. Interestingly, our local, boondocks store still carries canning supplies.
We also dehydrate and freeze vegetables. Our dehydrator holds 2 bushels of stuff and we'll have close to 40 cubic feet of freezer space once we get our small freezer back from my MIL.
Todd
My wife & I have been canning food for 30+ years. Maintaining constant pressure in a pressure canner on a woodburning stove requires practice & attention. We eat virtually no meat (turkey on T'giving or a goose for Yule, some years) so do not can it. Giving up meat is one of the best things you can do, for your health & for the environment. We do eat eggs from our own hens, but do not keep a rooster. In the past we had dairy goats but no longer. Dehydrating food is a good way to preserve it, but you really should use the sun rather than an electric food dryer. Freezing food is not a good way of preserving it. Freezers use electricity & food may spoil during a power outage. We do have a small freezer inside the refrigerator but when the compressor on the big chest freezer died we decided not to replace it. I applaud your food preservation efforts. You could gain even more efficiency by giving up meat & by reducing your reliance on electricity.
I do a lot of canning (both hot water pack and pressure), and am planning to do a lot more. I suppose it is a lot of work, given how cheap one can buy a can of whatever at the store. Of course, if those prices in the store suddenly go through the roof, or if the cans are simply not available on the store shelves any more, that is a different matter. Sure, one can stockpile, but then what do you do when the stockpile is used up? By growing your own food and canning it, you establish a sustainable system. (Well, you might need to stockpile canning lids, but that is a much smaller propsition.)
Haven't really tried juice, seems like a lot of trouble for something that is, after all, mostly water. If I had more land with more production, and more time, then I could see the sense of it.
I don't have a freezer, so I do very limited freezing. I can't see the wisdom of buying a separate freezer unless one is already set up with PV or wind so that they can stay up even when the grid is down.
I do a little cold storage, but unfortunately I don't have a proper root cellar. I'm going to try to improvise burying some insulated containers along the north side of the house. I might try using a "clamp" to store some potatoes in the garden next winter. Some vegies (parsnips, carrots, leeks, Jerusalem artichokes, kale & collards, chard) will winter over in the garden with a heavy mulch protection or cold frame over them. I might see how long I can keep lettuce and spinach going under a cold frame as well.
Dehydration and salting/anaerobic lacto-fermentation are next on the to do list.
An adequately insulated submerged root cellar (dirt is cheap) is amazingly fun to design, because you can use lots of different materials, and it can even be used as a refrigerator or freezer if you rip out the circuitry/compressor from one and build it right. The sky's the limit (or at least, the lawn).
"Staying up" isn't the same as "staying cold." Freeze a swimming pool half-full of ice with the right circuitry, plop a platform down to keep things in, cover it and insulate it adequately, and you can run it off minimal renewables without needing constant power, because it won't melt for weeks or months.
Abandon Norfolk to Jacksonville line because of
Intracoastal Waterway.
Huh ?
14 mph is pushing it for barges.
I cannot see people taking a week to get to from Miami to DC, and Florida produce will spoil at those speeds,
And besides, barges burn diesel and trains can "burn" renewable electricity.
Alan
Barges take all non perishables/bulk. As efficient as trains. Then trains on trunklines. Then trucks/mules.
No exceptions. Except for people and what they can carry
with them.
Sail will make a comeback.
And Florida's Coastline will disappear to 25 miles inland.
Like NOLA.
On a 20 year timeline.
And truck is always the last leg. Once something gets on a truck it doesn't go back.
Perishables will only be for the wealthy anyway. Or
to transport within, say, 120 Klicks.
I don't think "speed" is the sine quo non here, IMHO.
Electricity will be found to be non renewable.
Wind/Solar Farms, maybe produce 5%.
I do like your grid from a geo political viewpoint.
Thank you for responding. Geaux NOLAGC!
Barges currently run on diesel, but might be converted to emulsified coal (emulsified in water or something burnable) with a decade + changeover.
Barges, and to a lesser extent railroads, suffer from circuity. That is the distance traveled from A to B is longer than a straight line between those points. And barges are EXTREMELY fuel efficient coming down-river, less so going upriver. Slack water in between. Some barges come down-river on the Mississippi and then take the slack water return trip back via the Tenn-Tom Canal to save on fuel during the spring (when currents are higher).
http://www.tenntom.org/MAINPAGES/ttwmaps.html
Good map of Lower Mississippi waterways.
Switching freight from truck to electrified rail trades 17 to 20 BTUs of diesel for 1 BTU of electricity (perhaps 3 BTUs for express service).
Switching from electrified rail to diesel barges might trade (it varies) 2 to 5 BTUs of electricity for 1 BTU of diesel.
Speed does have value.
My approach is less forcing people out of oil burning modes and more about creating a superior non-oil transportation alternative.
Where the economic benefits drive the transfer and "non-oil" is just a nice extra to the user.
Just my approach,
Alan
I don't think transporting most of the NE's vegetables would be at all necessary - or wise, given California's growing water constraints. The California to NE route essentially amounts to transporting tons of water from a dry, water limited place to a wet one. Far better to combine this with a system of widespread gardening and local farming and produce most of the Northeast's winter produce there.
Fresh greens can be fairly easily produced without supplemental heat in hoop houses - the only really unsustainable components being 8 mil plastic or something similar that has to be replaced every 5-10 years. Double layered with spun floating row covers, fresh salad greens, collards, kale, scallions, etc... Add in root cellared (could be done in large scale dug cold storage) cabbage, apples, potatoes, onions, turnips, carrots, parsnips, beets, celeriac, etc..., forced turnip and beet greens, carrots and parsnips mulched and kept in the ground, sprouting seeds and locally/home preserved food, and you've got it covered. The problem will be enabling people to make such a radical dietary change - one of the reasons I consistently argue that agricultural changes have to follow dietary ones. Moderate transport, perhaps by ship, of citrus and bananas from Florida could supplement this.
Sharon
"The problem will be enabling people to make such a radical dietary change - one of the reasons I consistently argue that agricultural changes have to follow dietary ones. Moderate transport, perhaps by ship, of citrus and bananas from Florida could supplement this."
Spot on.
Love your work.
Exception-
grain/fiber production will move from mule/truck to
barge to rail (or seagoing sail).
You know Sharon, five years ago I was right with you. I live in the northeast and have a solar greenhouse for supposedly year round food production. Since then I've concluded the problems are insurmountable, namely:
1. Climate change/unpredictablility. This winter has been unbelievable. Record snow levels that still haven't dissipated. Normally I would have plenty of spring greens by now but due to record cold and snow in March I don't have much at all right now and my garden still is covered with snow. Whether this is due to man-made global warming or not things certainly are getting screwed up.
2. Overpopulation. There are just way too many people to feed by local food production even if everything were going right, which it isn't. Obviously, our population problem isn't going to be solved by voluntary birth control measures, wouldn't you agree?
3. Widespread apathy/indifference. Most people I am acquainted with don't have any intention of learning to grow and preserve their own food, let alone cut and spit their own fire wood, compost their own humanure, or any of their other countless activities they would need to engage in a post-petroleum world.
We all have a lot to learn. We live in a small town in in eastern Massachusetts and there are just a handful of "farmers" left, but most are retired or part time. But we've seen a groundswell of newcomers who want to learn how to be more self sufficient. Building community skills seems better than individual ones or giving up. I've come to think that the apathetic ones will either change or leave, if the worst happens. Shoving global warming or peak oil down people's throats doesn't work too well, but consistency and patience might work.
And without being religious or sappy, faith and hope seem to have a place here.
How do we transition from being in the fringe to mainstream? Maybe through books? Sharon, your writings are wonderful. I know it's hard to do, but I hope you're writing a book or two in your copious free time while farming and raising a family.
Chris
I'm lucky to get 3-4 years out of the 6 mil UV treated PE sheeting I cover the hoophouse with. Untreated PE won't even last a single growing season. Where are we going to get polyethylene sheeting in the years to come? This might be a good thing to consider stockpiling.
Elliot Coleman (author of Four Season Harvest would disagree. He grows and sells a wide range of stuff year round in New England. Salad greens, cabages, broccoli & caulifower, kale & collards, spinach, chard, other potherbs, root vegies all can be grown and made available fresh during the winter. Winter squashes & onoins can be stored and sold throughout the winter as well. Lots of good eating there.
Apples can be stored & sold fresh throughout most of the winter as well, although they do tend to start looking not so good by late winter. That's the time to crak open the applesauce and canned apples for baking!
As far as greenhouse production goes, protection from frost is only part of it, and that alone does little more for you than simple cold frames. The other big issue is sunlight -- there is simply too little of it to ripen most summertime crops in the wintertime. So what you would need to grow summer crops like tomatoes, peppers, eggplants, summer squashes, cukes, sweet corn & green beans are not only greenhouses, but greenhouses that also have artificial lighting. Now you are really talking expense and much higher energy inputs. Compare that with the expense and energy inputs of transport from Florida and I'm not sure that it is worth trying. Of course, tomatoes & corn can be canned or dried, peppers canned or frozen (ditto with summer squash, but mainly good only in casserole recipes), cukes pickled. Green beans can be canned or dried or frozen or even salted. Most local fruits really must be fresh on a seasonal basis only, and then it is canned or frozen (or in a few cases dehydrated) the rest of the year. Citrus from Florida makes a nice change from that, and should continue if at all possible.
Thus, in summary, it is quite feasible for people living anywhere in the northeast (or really anwhere north of Florida for that matter) to have at least 4-5 servings per day or more just of locally grown fresh vegetables, plus a local fresh or canned apple or two a day, plus several servings of canned or frozen or dehydrated local vegies or fruits. All this without even resorting to a serving of Florida citrus, which would be a nice "icing on the cake" so to speak. From a purely nutritional point of view, there is no real need to transport in anything except Florida citrus during the winter months.
Anyone remember how to store food in Mason jars?
Yup. Wisconsin Aluminum foundry makes a gasket-less pressure cooker.
The local Goodwill sells the empty jars at $.99 cents (do the math VS new jars)
You must have a line between either Dallas to KC,
or Dallas to StL.
Any node thru So LA must go N of Lake Ponchartrain.
Or be column elevated.
Forget Florida.
"Latest delay of Boeing 787 pushes back first delivery to third quarter of 2009
By Dominic Gates
Seattle Times aerospace reporter
Boeing now expects to deliver the 787 Dreamliner between 14 and 16 months late — yet industry analysts greeted the plan as good news, saying the company Tuesday finally gave them a schedule they could believe."
I believe not.
I had a Dallas-Ft. Worth > OKC > Tulsa > Kansas City connector, but I erased it. I cannot see enough people or express freight to make it worth doing faster than 60 to 70 mph. The travel market is not large enough for people to justify semi-HSR. What freight do you see ?
New Orleans has a double track, unlimited capacity RR bridge over the Mississippi River. Once the busiest RR bridge in the world (perhaps it still is). Replacement cost ? Perhaps $10 billion.
New Orleans is also served by 6 of the 7 Class I RRs in North America, so it is a natural rail transfer point (including regular to semi-HSR rail).
New Orleans is also the closest Gulf port to the Panama Canal, so container etc. traffic should expand when the Panama Canal is expanded in 2014.
Alan
Any of the lower elavation spots need to be looked at for the possibility of being underwater in about 10 years or so? Florida will be half the size? What about the LA Gulf basin?
BZ
As we still have houses in Jacksonville and my inlaws have homes in Ft. Lauderdale and Miami, I thought it would be prudent to have a look at the effects of sea level rise on the map at the University of Arizona (sorry lost the link, SE it). Our historical house in Jax will fare well - there was a reason they built on high ground in the old days. (Take a hint developers, ever seen Plantation, FL? gurgle, gurgle).
With 3m sea level rise the east coast of Florida turns into "Key Daytona". Ft. Lauderdale returns to the brackish marshland it was always meant to be. The Keys will once again be a great diving location with all the interesting structures underwater. "Look Bob, Hemingway's house! Let's swim down the street to Sloppy Joes."
Note about the Intracostal from Norfolk to Jax, ever try it even in a pleasure boat? I can't see bidirectional barge traffic managing that waterway too well.
I think you are conflating, will have emitted enough CO2 to be committed to X amount of sea level rise after Y years, with in Y years we will have sea level rise of X. The later is not true, as the ice caps will take hundreds of years to adjust to the hotter climate. Currently IIRC sea level rise is about 4mm/year, which is about an inch and a half per decade. Of course that rate is likely to increase, but the land won't be disappearing all that rapidly.
Baring collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, that is.
The best parts of Florida are the parts that are already underwater, I'm figuring to get some plankton nets to drag behind my kayak to supplement my diet ;-)
I've got to go. I'll reply to this though. And later.
There's entirely too much traffic from Dallas thru
KC/StL/Memphis to ignore. See the NAFTA Corridor for ex.
And NOLA will have to move. It becomes more vulnerable by the day.
The Bridge over Bay St Louis for ex.
Best regards,
James
I looked again at an extension from Dallas to Okla City > Tulsa > Kansas City > St Louis.
The distance from San Antonio to St. Louis would be about 100 miles shorter than SA > StL via New Orleans. OKC and Tulsa are not major cities, so this is a toss-up as to whether it is worth while. Marginal or Phase II at best.
Alan
"The distance from San Antonio to St. Louis would be about 100 miles shorter than SA > StL via New Orleans."
At the very least you're creating a bottleneck thru
the increasingly vulnerable NOLA.
"OKC and Tulsa are not major cities,..."
But they are major commodity producers (oil/gas).
And the area controlled by Dallas/KC/StL/Memphis
is a key commodity producing/freight moving area.
And the key, IMHO, for the future will be reliant, steady,
constant flow, not speed and power.
But any advanced tech, like electric trains, will
be used to facilitate this commodity movement.
Or your electric train grid will not be viable.
More if wanted.
Again. Thank you for your reply. I think your grid
points out the fracturing pullback of our system, BTW.
Best, Always,
James
The "red lines" are NOT the totality of the electrified rail grid, but the premium semi-High Speed minority (perhaps 13% of all electrified lines) of the electrified system (as I wrote above).
About 8,500 miles out of 65,000 electrified rail miles would offer premium, higher speed service.
And electrified trains are hardly "advanced tech". San Antonio shut down an local electrified line to Pearl Brewery a decade ago and donated a 1907 electric locomotive to a museum. All railroads in Switzerland are electrified except one tourist line.
Partially for passengers, partially for express freight (mail, packages, fish, fruit & vegetables, priority inventory).
Commodities do not need premium service, 60 mph service is more than "good enough".
In order to attract freight from trucking, I believe that railroads have to meet or beat trucking speed and reliability. That means excess RR capacity (with alternative routes, see 65K miles electrified) so that congestion rarely if ever slows down shipments as well as some limited premium service.
The idea of major cities having several inter-modal centers and very short trains shuttling from the central switch yard to the dispersed inter-modal facilities is a good one.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Don't get me wrong, Alan.
No one wants you to succeed more than I do.
And I did realize that Your grid was/is "step up".
Entirely doable.
"In order to attract freight from trucking, I believe that railroads have to meet or beat trucking speed and reliability. "
My uncle loves to tell of how bread was delivered from Little Rock changed over at a hub and delivered to our small town
80 miles away by 7:30AM daily.
We've just got to change personnel and their mental paradigm to return to that.
Best Always,
James
Slightly off topic, but this new book may be a useful resource.
Transport Revolutions by Richard Gilbert and Anthony Perl.
The complete Chapter One -- I have only skimmed this but look forward to reading in full. It is an excellent historical review of cases when enormous and rapid shifts occurred in transportation patterns and mode share.
Presentation PDF: Transport Revolutions in Calgary's Future
Presentation PDF: Preparing Transport for Oil Depletion: Focus on U.S. and China
From the book description:
I am suprised you do not have an East Coast-West Coast connection for your 100-110mph system. My estimate is that 100-110mph will only save about 9 hours in travel time from San Francisco to Kansas City over a 60-79mph system. However the savings in time might be larger depending on the difficulty in tranfering freight between the two speed regimes. When I travel Interstate 80 the traffic in heavy trucks appears heavy enough to justify rail upgrades and this system may attract traffic presently on other east-west Interstates.
Electrification costs and rail upgrade costs are outside my expertise and may outweigh potential savings.
Mountains in the way will escalate costs dramatically. The faster the train, the wider the radius of the turns. Quite an issue in rugged mountains.
Only the Gadson Purchase (Southern 1/4th of Arizona) avoids major tunnels, twisty routes, etc. Which is precisely why the USA bought that section of land from Mexico.
Also, true high speed rail (180 mph) is not attracting significant market share for trips of 500+ miles in the EU or Japan today. The Brits rarely travel to Spain via Chunnel and TGV. Likewise Berliners and Italy.
If experience shows that "things have changed", then a Phase II may be in order. Connecting Tuscon to San Antonio seems to be the most cost effective first link. Shorter and over good terrain.
Alan
You are probably correct about the cost and Tucson to San Antonio being a better route. My observations are further north and may not apply to a wider area.
My last trip along HWY 30 in western Iowa paralleled a rail line and those trains weren't going anywhere near 60 mph that day. I do know that some of the loss of freight from rail to trucks 40 years or so ago was because of excessive delays from the trains.
Your ideas about electrified rail to replace heavy trucks is one of the few bright spots I see in an environment of potential fuel shortages and of higher fuel prices.
The biggest cause of "slow orders" on track is deferred maintenance/track quality. Primitive signals can also slow trains.
Shunting to sidings for bi-directional travel on single tracks is another.
Besides the 8,500 miles of 110 mph service, I also plan 25,000 miles of improved double track (or very high quality single track). Almost all of these 25K miles would be capable of at least 60 mph and much of it 79 mph (unlike today).
Over 100,000 miles of US railroads would not be electrified or improved in any way (other than no more deferred maintenance). Later, as demand and resources allow, more could be done. And more abandoned rail lines reopened, etc.
I am trying to be practical and see what is needed to transfer about 85% of truck ton-miles to rail. Ed Tennyson came up with a less aggressive plan that he thought could displace 67% of trucks for $250 billion (no 110 mph service among other differences with my plan).
BTW, Tilting trains can run at higher speeds over tight curves, but there are other issues (meeting US safety regs with tilting is not easy, rolling stock becomes much more expensive, etc.)
There are "fuzzy edges" to these plans, it is difficult to do everything exactly and optimally while facing an uncertain future.
I wanted to give a general cost (and rough time schedule) for making a fundamental transition to Non-Oil Transportation. Hopefully a worthwhile addition to the debate.
Best Hopes,
Alan Drake
Rising fuel costs impacting aviation should alter that, and provide the incentive for a large build of high-speed rail in Europe to improve international connections.
The thing is, though, that one alternative to increasingly expensive airlines for long distance trips is to simply not take the trip. Thus long-distance high speed rail is not just competing against airlines, it is also competing against not taking the trip at all. That is a tough competition to win.
A bit of both, I would have thought. If air fares are too expensive, then those who have the cash for a holiday are likely to make use of the excellent French TGV, and holiday closer to home - there is then huge incentive for the Italians and Spanish to improve their links.
France is also one of the few places that will be able to make sure that the electricity is on, so I would see it becoming an even more popular holiday destination, whilst places like Turkey, Croatia and Bulgaria loose a heck of a lot of business.
Of course, if we do suffer a massive financial collapse then none of this would apply.
Several comments from former RR employee that worked in midwest, TX and California:
1. Much produce is grown on irrigated land in TX and northern Mexico and shipped to midwest. This has been going on since the 1930's when RRs introduced refrigerated cars using block ice for cooling. Today I bought organic tomatos grown in TX and they probably came to St Louis by truck.
Friend that works for BNSF says they run 40 or more freight trains per day from TX to KC, STL and Chicago. UP RR runs another 40 or so per day so combined traffic is at least 80 trains per day (40 each way). Add in new traffic shifted from trucks and you get 60 each way per day and could go on three different routes through Oklahoma City, OK, McCalister, OK and Little Rock, Arkansas.
2. We don't need sidings at ever industry, but we do need intermodal yards at several locations, maybe three to eight, in each metro area so that trucks can be marshalled at several points and not have them going across every city adding to traffic, pollution, expense. These several intermodal yards could then assemble a short train which would pick up more cars at a second yard then head to the next major city.
3. Intercity passenger trains need not travel faster than 110 mph max (80mph average)to attract people from their cars. Some short distance corridors can justify 135 mph or 150mph trains where passenger volume is huge, but these require great investments so only apply in maybe 12 or 15 corridors in the US.
4.Any corridor that has more than 10 or 12 freight trains and 6 to 8 passenger trains should be electrified. I think your milage figure of 65,000 is about right. As more lines are electrified the cost per mile will come down as parts are mass produced and companies compete for the construction contracts. Over a ten year period this program could easily provide 1 million good paying new jobs. We should be spending at least $50 billion per year on this program of electrifying our RRs and building new rail transit.
I see 4 cities in Louisiana linked to the network but none in Mississippi or Arkansas. Gee I wonder where you're from.
The four cities along they Louisiana coast were to prevent the line from crossing too much water. A limitation of the software used. It will draw straight lines between designated cities/airports and compute the straight-line miles. I added a rough guess on circuity depending upon terrain.
http://gc.kls2.com
OTOH, there is not too much in Arkansas or Mississippi to either originate express freight or passengers or as a destination for either.
I do not consider gambling (a major industry in MS) to be worth long term capital investment to attract gamblers. So neither Las Vegas or the Casino Coast (or Atlantic City) got new rail lines.
Alan
Just one recommendation/observation:
Why not a DC-Baltimore-Wilmington (DEL)-New York City-Boston line? The region from Norfolk, VA to Boston on the east coast is a 2 trillion per annum economy. I think it would benefit from an interlinking line of the type you're proposing.
Of course I have zero expertise in rail so I leave the question to you.
Cheers
Rob
That line already exists :-), the one major line Amtrak owns, the NorthEast Corridor or NEC.
Electrified from Boston to Washington DC (you missed Philadelphia), with almost high speed rail (150 mph), Acela.
I think Acela was poorly engineered, and the tracks could certainly be improved in places, but it is not on the map because it already exists. Good catch though.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Ah! I should have known better! I've ridden the Acela! So they're able to mix cargo transport on that line as well?
Also, something I wanted to mention... I know it's off topic. Please forgive me Alan, but I thought it was an important bit of news if you guys haven't seen it yet:
From the IEA...
http://omrpublic.iea.org/
"Global oil supply fell by 100 kb/d in March to 87.3 mb/d, led by lower supplies last month from OPEC, the North Sea and non-OPEC Africa."
This has got to be monumental. The world is scrambling to produce every liquid an engine or generator can burn. Prices are as high or higher than they ever were. Demand is still pushing forward. And the IEA reports a supply backslide?
Better get those electric lines up, Alan. With the way things are going, we'll probably need them sooner rather than later.
Alan,
Ever play this game?
http://www.daysofwonder.com/tickettoride/en/content/overview/?game=us
I doubt Alan does. Stupid game. I like badminton.
Ever play football? or soccer? or chess? Or 'Call of Duty 4'? What game will satisfy you?
Baseball. How bout 'Hunt for IED's in Anbar Province'? WTF, dude?
Let's play another game.
What province is Ramadi located in?
Double or nothing?
Who's the 7th biggest producer in OPEC?
Working on another ban OilCEO?
Never even heard of it. Interesting concept.
However, I prefer to play with the rules set by reality :=)
Best Hopes,
Alan
Oh well, your post made me think of it.
Fun game BTW
Going though Mobile between NOLA and Atlanta instead of Birmingham might make more sense.
I think Mobile might be a top 10 US port once they open their containerized cargo port.
Alan,
You may consider moving the Atlanta to Chicago line approx 100 miles west to include the large Norfolk Southern railyard in Chattanooga and to better avoid the rough terrain of the Appalachians. Chattanooga also provides access to the Tennessee River which links to the mighty Mississip.
Regards,
Gunga
Yes.
Alan
Alan - RE: 1st mile/last mile intermodal
I see several things that need to be worked on.
While it is possible to load and carry semi cargo box trailers on railroad flatcars, the standard intermodal shipping container works a lot better. One of the big things we need to do is to speed up and facilitate replacement of the installed base of semi cargo box trailers to flatbed trailers configured to haul standard intermodal shipping containers.
Compared to the cost of building out a wide web of spur rails or relocating a large number of plants adjacent to existing rail spurs, the cost of building small-scale local intermodal container loading/unloading facilities might be considerably lower. I'm talking here of handling equipment in transfer yards that is all considerably scaled down from what we've all seen at the major ports - something that would handle just hundreds of containers per day instead of thousands. Remember that the container has to be loaded and unloaded somewhere. If each plant is located next to a rail spur, then each plant needs its own handling equipment -- equipment which might not be utilized continuously enough to be very cost-effective. Centralized, shared facilities might be a much more economic approach.
As far as refrigeration is concerned, I see no reason why refrigeration units could not be built into a standard shipping container. Perhaps it has already been done. Supplying power to these by truck tractors would work exactly the same as for the existing refrigerated trailers. Providing power while on trains would be a bit tricky, but I assume that there is way to do it; again, it is probably already being done.
A far as transferring power from one car to another from a single pantograph pickup, I got detailed real world info from Ed Tennyson (SEPTA in Philly uses a single pantograph to transfer power from 1 EMU to the rest of the train, when EMUs are joined together).
Rubber covered jumpers work fine, but people cut them off for the copper. Several brands for transfer via the coupler, he recommended Ohio Brass.
I like the idea of a major Metro area having several inter-modal transfer points (say four to six in Dallas-Ft Worth area). Short trains are shuttled 1 to 3 times per day from central switch yard to each transfer point. If someone is in a hurry they can pick up at central switchyard. In the case of Dallas, containers could be xfered to DART and run on their rails off-peak as trolley freight.
Such a system would significantly reduce truck miles on Urban highways.
But such a transition will be step by step. However, it helps to know where you are going when you start :-)
Best Hopes,
Alan
How fast are the costs of electrification rising? We read of such large increases in the costs of nuclear and coal power plants. I wonder to what extent the same trend is hitting electrification.
Any idea how many pounds or tons of steel, copper, etc are needed per mile of electrified rail for a single track? How much additional material is needed per mile when there are multiple tracks?
2004 numbers were $2 million/mile for single track and $2.5 million/mile for double track.
Labor is a significant component. Cheap electrification can be done with wooden poles (Ed Tennyson used 18" diameter treated poles that may still be in service for SEPTA).
Typically the carrier wire is stranded aluminum & steel (Al for conductivity and Fe for strength) and only the contact wire is copper (a very low % silver alloy# is preferred for wear resistance and additional mechanical strength). Other train trolley wire designs are in common use as well.
# Measured in troy ounces of silver per ton. 1 troy ounce has exactly the same electrical properties as pure copper, but improved physical properties. From distance memory I liked 3 or 4 troy ounces of silver per ton.
Best Hopes,
Alan
That's really cheap in the bigger scheme of things. Electrify double track 3000 miles from coast to coast for $7.5 billion.
Any idea what price of diesel makes electrification cost justified for at least some sections of freight track? When (I originally typed "if") we start seeing $6, $8, $10 diesel will we see track electrification?
I assume Warren Buffett knows when he'll want BNSF to start electrifying.