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Iraq really is the big unknown factor in the peak oil equation. Iraq has the worlds second largest reserves,but has only drilled about two thousand wells. Compare that to the million or so in Texas.
The problem with Iraq is at some point the US will have to let the steamcooker lid pop off so the Sunni's and Shiite's can have their civil war, and that will reduce a rubble strewn landscape to dust, that is until they eventually rebuild under new leadership and start pumping lots of oil and drilling new wells. The timing of all that will depend on how long we stay there. The sooner we leave the sooner all that can happen.
But this approach will simply create another Iran and probably Iran/Iraq war II. Given the situation the chances of a Iraqi civil war not expanding into a regional war is pretty slim.
I understand your sentiment but the US is now damned if it does and damned if it does not with Iraq.
I understand your sentiment but the US is now damned if it does and damned if it does not with Iraq.
This is why we call the whole sad situation a quagmire.
My viewpoint is pretty grim. The US has to remain so the Iraqi's can have a proper civil war and kill each other without outside interference. Note that in history fomenting civil war was a common tactic used for empire building.
Its been a long time since this was last practiced but its a time honored approach. As long as Iraqi's are busy killing Iraqi's they are helping the US. The job of the US is to simply ensure a level killing field.
level killing field
Ooh, delicious -- that's a keeper.
This "proper civil war" will not conclude while there are "empire building" troops present. As long as the US has forces in Iraq they will only allow a victor whom the US finds acceptable. But such a leader will always be seen as a lackey by his own countrymen. This is not the type of leader who can bring his country forward into the stable condition needed to fully exploit these oil reserves.
We can pull out voluntarily, or stay until we are defeated. That could be a very long time.
Sciaroni, I agree 100%. If you go back to my first post that initiated this thread, you'll see we are on the same page. Essentially we stuck our finger in a hornets nest and until we pull it out, Iraq will not be able to find a new regime to follow.