127 comments on DrumBeat: April 13, 2008
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127 comments on DrumBeat: April 13, 2008
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The King appears to be saying that he doesn't buy into significant reserve growth for his country, that future high prices won't have the effect of creating additional reserves. In other words, he appears to be skeptical of the theory (unproven, of course) that the world economy and the future well-being of billions now rely upon. From a mainstream economist's perspective, the King is truly radical.
Related to this is that he seems to be suggesting Saudis won't be raising production. Ever.
Very good observation, Pedestrian. I wonder if, as well, his most excellent majesty hasn't recognized that the longstanding line that market forces are keeping several million bpd of production offline is beginning to look like the shallow lie that it is in the face of relentlessly increasing oil prices.
Shifting the narrative from exaggeration about reserves and distortions about adequately supplied markets and large inventories (essentially all new demand is coming from countries like China with no known inventories), to concerns about the well-being of future generations of Saudis, improves the credibility of the 'managed' production scenario. The king probably considers this to be a superior 'information' strategy in the face of arguments from regime opponents that the kingdom's primary resource is being frittered away.
It's all propaganda and not very good propaganda at that. Either the Saudis are willfully holding oil off the market to make a killing -- short term gain for long term disaster -- or they are just attempting to obfuscate the fact that they can't substantially increase production.
I hate reading these statements. They aren't even comforting lies. What the Saudis have failed to understand is that a good lie holds in it at least a part of the truth. This stuff here is just mumbo-jumbo -- with added mumbling for effect.