74 comments on Gail Tverberg's Talk: Expected Economic Impact of an Energy Downturn
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
74 comments on Gail Tverberg's Talk: Expected Economic Impact of an Energy Downturn
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
Search The Oil Drum with Google
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
TOD:Europe
- Peak Gold, Easier to Model than Peak Oil? - Part I
- Carbon Capture and Storage
- Oilwatch Monthly November 2009
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
- Australian Senate: Peak Oil motion defeated 31:6
- The Bullroarer - Friday 20th November 2009
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- Early Warning
- The Energy Blog
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“So one may almost say that the theory of universal suffrage assumes that the Average Citizen is an active, instructed, intelligent ruler of his country. The facts contradict this assumption.”
—James Bryce (1909, 35)
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Nate Hagens, Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Heading Out, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Campfire: Glenn, Jason Bradford
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.










GAIA Host Collective
Gail and all,
Sometimes answers to hard problems require a new perspective. Sometimes just understanding the problem for what it is requires a different way of looking at it.
I'd like to suggest that such a change in perspective is possible and while it might not guarantee a solution in the sense of preserving our current way of living it might get us ready for the next phase of human existence.
http://questioneverything.typepad.com/question_everything/2008/04/can-a-...
http://questioneverything.typepad.com/
Hopefully yours,
George
I think we will have a hard time getting people to think money = energy as long as economists keep pointing out what a small percentage energy is of personal income. They don't realize that it is underpriced relative to its value.
Also, the cost keeps recycling through. We pay more for oil, natural gas, and coal where they are produced. Then we use fossil fuels to transport these fuels, so they are even more expensive at the point of sale. The fossil fuels are then used to transport all kinds of goods, so an increase in fossil fuels increases the goods costs. If the fossil fuels are actually present in smaller quantities (rather than just more expensive), there is a disproportionate cutback in the total amount of goods and services that can be sold - something that isn't generally measured.
Hi Gail, I really enjoyed your presentation.
Money = energy is kind of right but I have argued that money is really an energy allocation sytem. As weallknow energy cannot be created or destroyed,only changed from one form to another. It can also be stored, or accumulated and concentrated and it is the allocation of this stored energy for which we have invented the monetary system.
The most common and important type of energy traded is food and it would have soon become apparent to early traders that a way had to be devised to break apart the relative value of food so that you didn't have to kill a whole cow, every time you needed a cup of sugar.
The capitalist system holds that money will flow to those who are best able to allocate it in such a way as to create concentrations of energy which then perform a function in society which is desired by the participants. It really is no accident why the rich are the rich. They are typically smarter with the way that they allocate whatever energy they have to accumulate more of it, whereas poor people in the same society, all other things being equal, tend to waste their energy allocations on self indulgences which are energy dispersing. Society keeps score by allocating units of currency to people according to their behaviour.
Markets and finance of course are the logical outgrowth of this phenomenon and even though markets may stray and allocate money stupidly from time to time, it eventually corects and the money is taken off stupid people and may be destroyed (what's happening now) or re-allocated more appropriately.
The bigger the market, the longer the lag between stimulus-response and back to stimulus. Energy availability is perhaps the outer boundaries to which a market will always try to reach and then can grow no more. If the available energy actually starts to shrink, it will still be allocated along the same principles, with money continuing to be the means of allocation.
Every human activity is a decision to spend energy regardless of whether the measure is dollars or calories. The big problems come when we forget that money is only an abstract concept that represents our relative allocation of the available energy. Creating money alone does not create more energy but it is amusing to watch the various central banks try to do just that.
I disagree...
I think it is a pretty big stretch to assert that the wealthy are typically more efficient... The upper middle class maybe...
The newly wealthy (net worth > 10,000,000 US) are typically open to taking bigger risks (especially with other peoples' money) and quite often less scrupulous. A lack of empathy for others helps alot here.
To argue that those with inherited wealth or wealth from gambling (whether at the casinos or in the stock market) are more efficient users of energy is an even larger stretch.
Being efficient and careful isn't the path to riches in the US these days although these charactaristics might just keep you in the middle class.
Exactly. It is those who will take risks that are most often rewarded with the money. How they then spend that money will determine if they lose it or make more. You have to ask the question of how they came by the other peoples money first before you jump to any moral conclusion that it was somehow defrauded. More likley the sheeple were gambling..., sorry investing with little or no energy spent in trying to understand what they were investing in.
The same goes for inherited wealth and winnings from gambling. In the case of the latter two, the chances are highly likely that it will be lost or dispersed.
The market is now correcting, as it always does and everyone who invested in these money for nothing schemes deserves to lose. Everyone! America has tried to build itself on these finance schemes and outsource real productive work to other countries. If you follow where the energy is now going you will also find that is where the wealth is flowing. You cannot necessarily measure wealth in terms of money either. Money is too easy to print. Factories and warehouses of food, mineral assets, energy stores are real wealth wheras money is just an abstract way to denominate it.
You can have as much money as you want, but if you are hungry and nobody will accept your money for food, it is worthless junk. Just ask a Zimbwean. However if you have a fish to trade for a loaf of bread, both are energy sources and it really doesn't amtter what numerical value you put on it, the fish is still only worth a loaf of bread.
I think in a time of plenty, we have been concerned about allocating money/energy to those who are best able to perform functions that are desired by its participants. This sounds like a good idea, when the economy is set to grow-grow-grow, and there seems to be enough for everyone.
We will be heading into a very different world. Maintenance, rather than growing, will be a primary concern. Having enough food to eat, and fuel for transportation will be a top priority for everyone. There will not be enough to go around.
I think if politicians expect to be re-elected, and if we want to avoid food and gasoline riots, there may need to be some re-thinking of how money/energy is allocated. There may need to be more consideration of a minimum level for all, even if this takes away from other allocations. Also, maintenance is not glamorous, and most of us wouldn't pay much for it, but if we expect to have electricity in the future, and roads that we can use, we will need to put an increasingly large share of government budgets into maintenance, even if this reduces funds for other uses and raises taxes.
Gail, where I don't follow you is in your bottom-line energy costs - I use as my fall-back position nuclear energy, but that is because it is a proven technology, likely utility-scale solar thermal or wind-power can do the same job.
My assumption is that it will cost no more than around twice the price of fossil fuel energy, which in the form of coal does not pay the full cost of it's emissions anyway.
Of course, this does not cover liquid fuels, but battery technology seems fair set to do most of the needed job, and the remainder can be taken care of by coal to liquid fuel technology.
This is not to say that any of this will be easy, and you make a powerful case for a substantial downturn, but the main problem in the past was that no one knew when they would be undercut by cheap oil from Saudi, and so investment in other energy resources was problematic, indeed many lost fortunes.
Once it is accepted that fossil fuels will continue to be scarce and expensive, surely investment in alternatives will follow.
Why is a technological society run on nuclear or renewables not viable?
Tough times yes, collapse no.
I think not being able to replace liquid fuels is going to be a huge problem. All of our infrastructure is built to use liquid fuels. I don't think replacing this infrastructure with anything else - electric or otherwise -- will happen on more than a very limited basis.
The other thing that I don't people realize is that the electric system is in nearly as bad shape as liquid fuels. Euan has written about the problems in Great Britain, and I have written a little about the problems in the United States. In the United States we have a combination of problems-
• Margins of excess electric supply are dropping lower and lower, due to deregulation and inability to build new plants (due to climate concern and nuclear NIMBY)
• The Northeast, California, and Florida are very dependent on natural gas for electricity, but long-term supply is not good.
• Few coal-fired power plants are being built, because of environmental concerns.
• Upkeep of the electric grid has been badly neglected in recent years. It now needs major upgrades and replacements, but funding will be very difficult to obtain with peak oil problems.
• Work force of electric utilities is near retirement age. Few young people have been hired in years.
• Water needed for cooling coal and nuclear power plants is in short supply, particularly in the Southwest and Southeast. See this article by Platts.
• Long time delays are expected before new nuclear plants can be built. Some problems include inadequate number of skilled workers, lack of (or poor quality of) specialized parts, and short-term uranium shortages. A change to thorium, or other different technology, will add time to the process.
• Solar and wind are not likely to scale up adequately in the time-frame required.
• Needed parts (both replacement and for new facilities) may not be available because of balance of payment issues.
• Peak oil will bring shortages that can be expected to affect the electric industry as well - lack of gasoline for workers to get to work, and to run trucks used to maintain the grid.
If the electric grid is not working for some reason, it spills over to the liquid fuels sector, because pipelines need electricity to continue to pump oil as usual.
I think part of the problem is the complexity of the whole system, and the fact that Liebig's law of the minimum works in so many ways simultaneously.
When you consider we built most of the infrastructure in industrial society with nothing before it to build it upon when everything was far more costly, this laundry list of annoyances doesn't present itself as any sort of threat to civilization.
I would agree that there will be severe disruption, and that shortages of oil, gas, and later perhaps coal will impact heavily.
However, in the slightly longer term it seems to me that the problems are manageable for a number of reasons.
Firstly, generation costs will still be relatively low, ie no more than twice the price of electricity generated by natural gas, using nuclear power as the base line figure to get that cost, with wind, solar thermal and PV kicking in as they reach cost targets.
The question then becomes, if you accept that alleged uranium shortages are manageable, how do you get from a to b.
There is massive waste in the current system at all levels, from ICE engines burning inefficiently, to the use of road rather than rail transport, to inadequately insulated homes and the low use of heat pumps - air heat pumps will do just fine almost everywhere, rather than the far more expensive ground source pumps.
This effectively means that vast savings in energy use can be made relatively easily.
That brings us on to another point. Many of your arguments predicate their timescales on present practice, for instance the authorisation times for uranium mines, or authorisation difficulties for coal plants, and do not take account of human adaptability, it appears to me.
IOW, the more we are hurting and we have a greater emergency, the more procedures will be streamlined.
If power shortages bite, then NIMBY's will not be popular.
The solution to many of the issues discussed, for instance dry cooling to deal with water shortages, are well known, and what is needed is the will to deal with them.
The very magnitude of the problems ahead seems likely to me to lead to a vigorous response.
None of this is to say that adaption will be easy, but most of the issues are those of realising that we are in trouble rather than fundamental problems in applying technology.
Demand for nuclear reactors from France and Japan, for instance, is likely to rapidly grow, and in France at least the power is not likely to turn off as they have so high a percentage of nuclear power, so internationally trade in their plants should be vigorous.
Demand for wind turbines and transmission lines should also be high, as will be demand for advanced batteries.
Economies such as China also tend to be very resilient at their stage of growth.
Impact in the US and the UK, and in Africa, should be relatively high, but many areas seem much better placed to cope.
With the world that will change rapidly, citizen's priorities will change quickly.
This list is not in order, but could happen due to varying severity of the crisis.
1. People won't put up with electrical outages. They will gladly trade some air pollution for a coal fired plant. With less automotive use, the total amount of pollution might be a wash.
2. Look for nationalization of energy projects. If private enterprise waits until it becomes profitable, it will be too late. The government will take over or oversee the production of commercial wind turbines, and solar manufacturing. It will also sell the products at little to no profit to get the project moving.
3. Efficiency standards will be enacted. Any private vehicle getting less than 35mpg will be banned or heavily taxed. The incandescent light bulb will be outlawed. Any non Energy Star appliances will be banned as well. The clothes line will make a roaring comeback.
4. Public transportation will be heavily subsidized or 'free' to encourage ridership.
5. Watch for more toll roads to come in to existence. Want to use it? It will cost you.
6. International collaboration - Internationalized energy research projects will be founded. Instead of many parallel energy research tracks, money will be pooled. We're all in this together, after all.
These are very interesting comments that essentially point to the need for clarification that might come from the perspective I propose.
Gail invokes the recursive nature of energy extraction that currently keeps true costs opaque. She notes that economists are loathe to do the rethinking, although the ecological economists do engage in thinking of energy as the true currency and all that that entails.
Turmoil has essentially recast the proposal noting the relationship between money as a token representation and free energy, which actually does the work. This description shows that economics isn't completely off the mark in studying markets and allocation. It is the disconnect between true currency and its artificial surrogate that is at the root of misunderstandings.
And Kohesion notes the fog that exists around understanding wealth, its creation, and its proper uses. People can be rich in monetary terms and not contribute one iota to the economy in the sense of increasing the availability of free energy.
Both viewpoints can be true.
I don't know if it will be possible to change enough people's perspectives or not. I don't know if it could be done in time to make a difference. But I am reasonably sure that for us to eventually understand and maintain a sustainable economy we will have to realize the true role of energy flow and work processes. We will have to be able to manage this by measurement (accounting) and allocation (markets, yes, but also coordination). Most of all we need a strategic view of what kind of world mankind needs to have in order to achieve actualization and balance with the rest of nature. Once we have such a view, and a means to manage our behaviors, perhaps our species can settle into a mode of enjoying the world. Prudent reshaping, wisely chosen new technologies that enhance sustainability and comfort might replace the frenetic drive to consume and corrupt. I remain hopeful.
George
Nice job, Gail!
Keep up the good work.