 | CLK08 closed around $114 (Tres Yergins) yesterday..so, in the next 60 days, the front month price of CL will... | The Oil Drum | Hydrates updated |  |
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I talked about this in response to a question last night.
When do scarce resources stop being allocated by price, and armies start marching--following the lead set by the US in the Persian Gulf?
I believe it is called "paying the ultimate price".
@WesTex
although I agree in General, I would disagree in progression. Price rises now are marginalizing the world's second fifth, the Wester World's first "fifth". Once that is accomplished, prices will stagnate again as demand falls. That all takes time. Then production falls will begin eating away at price again..
Just saying it'll happen more likely in observable steps, we being at the end of step 2 right now.
I never really understood this question. There have been dozens of wars fought since WWII - and that is just ones that the USA has been involved, at least 30 I think. All wars are essentially about resources, since land is a resource.
So we are not exactly looking at a new trend here.
I would suggest that the potential scale of these particular shortages, coupled with the increase in human population over the last 60 years (since the end of WWII) might give one pause to consider whether any resultant resource war might be a wee bit larger than past ones.
Perhaps the great irony is that the US hot war against Iraq, the economic war against Iran, and the proxy war attempt to replace Chavez have lessened the amount of oil on the market and driven up the price to the point where the aggressor is about to default financially--blowback I believe is the correct term. Any further resource wars will likely have a similar result, whatever the commodity. Campbell saw this eventuality, which is why he suggested the Depletion Protocol. IMO, either we arrive at such an international treaty, or we'll continue to have trouble caused by the country run by people who think they own the world imperilling all humanity. (Interesting the close relationship between imperil and imperious.)
New price of oil in soldiers per barrel?
Too far?
Only if calculating the price of Ethanol in Third World Refugees per mile is going to far as well. Thats the scale for the next 5-10 years, after that it just becomes the poor in general.
Hmmm... so in another discussion it was something like one barrel of oil does the equivalent work of 128 people.....so 128 less people equals 1 barrel of oil? Any volunteers?
The poll is difficult because of the $unit. Is there some sort of a market-basket in which we could price it? We can't price it in energy units - or can we? Pricing in dollars - well, bail out Citibank and yeah, it will be over $127. Is that or is that not exactly the issue? Soldiers per barrel, hmmm, what do we do about the fractions - an arm and a leg? And there is really only one Yergin - unless his family wants to get in on it - so that doesn't work as a pricing unit.
What I'd find much more interesting would be a poll on the EROEI for all liquids - assuming such a number could be calculated. Maybe there are ten different metrics ranging from soldier per barrel to failed bank per barrel and count-of-billionaires-on-planet per barrel. Like the caviar index.
cfm in Gray, ME
Should probably be lives per gallon as more than just soldiers will be hit.