Your point about future oil supply not being about reserves and being mostly about flow rate is the thing most people can't seem to grasp about peak oil. The beauty of Hubbert's analysis method is that it cuts straight through the bull and confusion about politicized reserve estimates and how oil should flow out of rock and gets to the heart of the matter, which is the real life flows produced considering all the complex factors. By doing this, it solves the riddle of who's lying about reserves and how certain rocks will behave.

In an earlier post of mine, this is the way I define peak oil:

On a worldwide basis, the phenomenon of peak oil can be thought of as a crisis in resources needed to produce oil. It's the size of the tap, not the size of the tank. As we deplete the large, easy-to-produce fields and move to ever-more-difficult fields, it takes more and more drilling rigs, more petroleum engineers, and more investment dollars. Eventually we reach a point where we are out of equipment, out of trained personnel, and the investment cost for expanding production becomes prohibitive. When production begins to drop because of all of these pressures, we reach "peak oil".