Not surprisingly, the hype about the Bakken's potential ends up being hype after all. Even if the Bakken's could be produced at peak levels starting right now (which it can't), it would only delay global peak production by approximately 6 weeks; so much for the "Saudi Arabia" of Northern Plains that oil company surrogates have attempted to spin.

Thanks to Gail for deftly extracting pertinent trends from the fast-moving data stream.

You know how the old saying goes: A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on top. Something similar might be said for oil too. However, we've talked about this a bit previously on this site and up until now I've been pretty skeptical but now that I've read this I'm fairly impressed. Even if this does nothing for global supplies, or make a dent in the U.S. imports, this will be a boon for the economy of these states. Or rather, it will be a boon to the finances of those who lease the land the wells are on and the few people who are actively engaged in extracting and shipping the oil. Yet, translating mineral wealth into a diversified economy has always been a challenge for the western states.

*edit* Actually, now that I think about things in a more consumption sort of capacity, does anybody know if it would make gasoline locally cheaper for this area? If I remember correctly, ND is at the end of the distribution chain.

Interesting guess that ND is at the end of supply chain/pipelines. Thought I would point out for the benefit of TOD readers, especially US readers, that ND, Montana etc... are more or less at the start of the big Cdn pipelines not so much at the end of the old gulf/SE lines.

The amazing thing about this, though, is that our Cdn lines do not actually serve our own industrial heartland in the east. All the Alta lines go into the US, mainly toward Chicago or over the mountains to the Pacific coast. We import almost all our oil in the East in tankers, plus a little Cdn offshore production.

Companies are actually starting to reverse some of the old gulf/WT lines to get "dilbit" synthetic crude to the hubs.
That leaves Eastern Canada with no SPR (yes, zero) and no local onshore production if you exclude Petrolia in Southern Ontario where the first wells were dug around 1850, before Titusville.

My GGGGrandfather is buried there (Oliver Simmons). His tombstone dated +/-1880 identifies him as a petroleum engineer. He was into refining/fractionating with Imperial. Needless to say, we're past our peak! We store vast gas there now in shallow dolomitized pinnacle reefs.

I wrote a note in one of the Drumbeats about needing someone to look into this (or some other issues) further. Piccolo wrote me an e-mail saying he was interested in doing some investigation. It wasn't until I saw a draft of the report that I knew for sure that he really could provide a lot better analysis than most of what is available.

I missed the attribution at the top, and only saw Gail's name. Good work, Piccolo.

Gail,

Thanks for following up on this and thanks Piccolo for delving in. It will be good to look harder once the USGS report is available, but I'm pretty pleased so far that this does not look like a huge amount of carbon. Nor does it look like it will bring down the price of oil. I still worry that the natural gas will be wasted on tarsands though. Perhaps the royalty income will spur some alternative energy development at the state level, which would be a positive development.

Chris

Thanks great report on the opportunities in the Bakken. Do your estimates include only the Bakken or also the Williston Basin. I have tended to notice the two discussed interchangably but it appears from your analysis they are separate as the Bakken is contained within the Williston Basin. Do you have any ideas on the Williston basins' productive capability?

This only includes the Bakken in the US. The Bakken is a subset of all the production in the Williston Basin, but it's the hottest play going at the moment in the Williston. It would not be difficult to do the same exercise for the Williston, but we'll leave that for another day.

There are probably quite a few different types of analyses that could be done like this.

It would seem like it would on other oil locations, like Gulf of Mexico, or shallow water separate from deep water in the Gulf of Mexico.

It might also work on natural gas, as with Barnett Shale in Texas.