DrumBeat: April 22, 2008


Bush voices concern about record oil price

NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) - President Bush Tuesday said he was concerned about record-high crude oil and gasoline prices, and said the United States needs to tap an Alaskan wildlife refuge to boost supply.

"I am obviously concerned for our consumers," Bush said at a news conference along with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Mexican President Felipe Calderon.

...Bush declined a reporter's request to comment on whether big OPEC producers like Saudi Arabia were coming to the aid of U.S. consumers, but heaped praise on Canada and Mexico - consistently among the top five U.S. suppliers.

"Fortunately Canada and Mexico are our biggest providers, for which we are grateful," Bush said.

New fuel economy standard will be 31.6 mpg

WASHINGTON - The nation’s fleet of new cars and trucks will be required to achieve 31.6 miles per gallon by 2015, the Bush administration said Tuesday.

Transportation Department Secretary Mary Peters outlined the plan on Earth Day, setting a schedule that was more aggressive than initially expected by industry officials.


Changing the current - State environmental laws drive power producers to renewable resources

WASHINGTON - The Imperial Valley of California is ideal country for solar and wind power. It rains less than three inches a year. Temperatures hit 110 degrees in the summer. The wind blows pretty steadily, too. And it's just east of San Diego.

Now, because of a California law requiring utilities to get 20 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2010, this untapped renewable-energy basin has caught the attention of Sempra Energy. The utility, based in San Diego, gets only 6 percent of its electricity from renewable resources, so it has proposed building a transmission line to bring solar power from the desert to the city.


Ineos refinery strike could shut-in 700,000 bpd of North Sea crude oil - BP

The looming strike at the Ineos Grangemouth refinery in Scotland could reduce North Sea crude output by as much as 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), a British Petroleum spokesman said on Tuesday.

...'A full Ineos Grangemouth shut-down would impact essential services which are required to operate the Forties Pipeline System,' said BP spokesman Richard Grant in Aberdeen, adding that the complete closure of the pipeline remained a possibility.


The petrol picture in Scotland

Queues at the pumps have been reported in some areas of the country, while others are still waiting for the effects to bite.

Below is a round up of the situation in your area.


US to Keep Filling Oil Reserve Despite Price

The U.S. believes current crude prices are too high for consumers globally, echoing many analysts and other governments, but will continue filling its strategic petroleum reserve despite record prices, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Energy Jeffrey Kupfer said Tuesday.

"We see no need to change the policy," he told journalists here at an industry conference.

Kupfer said the U.S.'s strategic oil reserve was a vital cushion needed in order to make up for any big supply interruptions in the future.


Oil must stay high if world to have enough supply

ROME (Reuters) - Energy producers cannot halt a rally that has driven oil to nearly $120 a barrel and the world might have to live with even higher prices if it wants supplies for the future, exporters said on Tuesday.


Oil: How High from Here?

"This (price spike) isn't an issue of supply and demand," says Joel Fingerman, principal of Chicago-based Oil Analytics, an energy consulting firm. "This is about money flow. It could stop here or at $150."

In other words, traders are bidding up the price of oil. It's the downside, in one sense, of the scramble by the Federal Reserve Board to rescue the financial markets in the wake of the subprime mortgage meltdown. Since October, the Fed has been consistently cutting interest rates -- most recently on Mar. 18, and it's expected to do so again on Apr. 28. Each time it does so, the value of the dollar falls against other currencies. Traders react by investing in other commodities as a hedge against the falling dollar, and dollar-denominated commodities (such as oil) become more expensive.


Home Prices Drop Most in Areas with Long Commute

Economists say home prices are nowhere near hitting bottom. But even in regions that have taken a beating, some neighborhoods remain practically unscathed. And a pattern is emerging as to which neighborhoods those are.

The ones with short commutes are faring better than places with long drives into the city. Some analysts see a pause in what has long been inexorable — urban sprawl.


Gas saving road trip tips

How to take your family's summer trip and still have some money left when you get there.


The Green Consumer: Myth or reality?

When polled, most consumers overwhelmingly say they want to buy green, according to Joel Makower, head of Greener World Media and author of The Green Consumer. But they aren’t actually doing it. According to the research, Makower says, “If it is green, consumers assume it isn’t good.” And that means, in many cases, green products are entering the marketplace with a deficit.


Pakistan: LPG smuggling from Iran hurting local industry

ISLAMABAD: Continued smuggling of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) from Iran is hurting the business of local industry, industry sources told Daily Times on Monday.

They said, “Local industry is being deprived of about 30 percent share of their business due to continued smuggling of LPG from Iran that is also depriving the national exchequer from billions of rupees in term of taxes.”


Natural gas company offers to fuel AEL&P generators for less money

An Alaska natural gas company offered Monday to provide fuel to Alaska Electric Light and Power generators for between 30 and 50 percent less than the cost of diesel.

Following the avalanches that destroyed the Snettisham transmission line, AEL&P has provided about 85 percent of Juneau's electricity through diesel generation that consumes 100,000 gallons a day at an estimated cost between $300,000 and $400,000 per day - a cost fully passed on to the community.


Australia: Electricity workers walk off job

Electricity supplies were not expected to be affected in Ergon's areas of operation outside the southeast corner.

But there may be some disruption from a series of rolling stoppages by linesmen, mechanics and electrical fitters starting tomorrow, Electrical Trades Union (ETU) assistant state secretary Peter Simpson said.


Climate Change: Comparing the Candidates

The remaining Presidential hopefuls talk of transforming the economy to save the environment. But who would actually get the job done?


Starving The Poor By Pandering To Big Ag

This is not a negation of the energy crisis and the need for alternative fuels. Nor is it some silly pooh-poohing of pollution and all its ugly brood. What I take it to be is an appeal for sanity, for common sense, for adult judgment and choices among difficult potential solutions.

I also like to think that putting the gas tank and the stomach face to face, and demanding that we decide which is more important, is an existential challenge we as individuals and nations should have answered long ago but haven't bothered to this day.


Examining Energy Consumption in the Data Center

Mounting storage needs have led to soaring energy consumption, just as an energy crisis is looming. Can IT become more efficient before all the juice is gone?


Major report links smog to deaths

Short-term exposure to smog, or ozone, is clearly linked to premature deaths that should be taken into account when measuring the health benefits of reducing air pollution, a National Academy of Sciences review concludes.

The findings contradict arguments made by some White House officials that the connection between smog and premature death has not been shown sufficiently, and that the number of saved lives should not be calculated in determining clean air benefits.


Disaster in progress: North America's home heating transition

A 2006 report from the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, a nonprofit association of Northeast air quality agencies, found that average particulate emissions from one outdoor wood boiler equaled that of 22 wood stoves, 205 oil furnaces or as many as 8,000 natural gas furnaces.


Unqualified experts create fear in market, says Naimi

Saudi Arabia has dismissed claims that it is overstating its real oil production capacity and said resulting fears and speculation are to blame for the sharp increase in crude prices.

...“Take for example the issue of petroleum resources: all respected petroleum engineers, geologists and upstream professional organisations believe the world has enough resources to easily meet demand for at least the next 30 years.

“Yet, a handful of non-specialists are able to scare the world with theories about peaking oil reserves,” he said, in a reference to recent remarks by some analysts the world’s proven oil resources have reached their peak and started to decline.


Saudi Arabia urges calm in face of surging oil prices

ROME (Thomson Financial) - Saudi Arabia's petroleum minister Ali al-Naimi called for calm in the face of runaway oil prices on Tuesday, saying there was no imminent oil shortage.

'This is not the time to panic and grasp for exotic, unproven solutions,' he told the International Energy Forum being held here.


UK: Panic buying at pumps

A £15 fuel limit has been imposed at a Dundee city centre petrol station in a bid to stop panic buyers bleeding the pumps dry


Coal isn't cool but our growth depends on it

Thanks, Jim. What a good idea. Australia, with its abundant, high quality coal, should stop mining, exporting and using coal forthwith while we wait for carbon capture and storage (CCS in global warming jargon) technology to emerge. When might that be?


UK: Gas and electricity prices rise by record one-day amount as oil cost hits all-time high

Oil, gas and electricity prices hit fresh records yesterday, raising fears that the global economy is becoming "destabilised".


How Many Earth Days Do We Have Left?

Of all the resources needed to build an economy that will sustain economic progress, none is more scarce than time. That is one of the key messages of PLAN-B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, the newest book by Lester Brown -- available as a free download at earthpolicy.org.

Plan A -- the western fossil-fuel-based, auto-centered, throwaway economic model -- is not going to work for China, India, or the 3 billion other people in developing countries, and it will not continue to work for the industrial countries either.

It's time for Plan B -- an all-out response at wartime speed proportionate to the magnitude of threats facing civilization.


Solar Building a Wise, and Ancient, Philosophy

The cheapest solar technology is just situating your home or office in the right direction when it’s built. You don’t have to be Socrates to understand the concept — but it might help.


The rising protectionist tide

The current trend for countries to take increasing control over their own oil resources, forcing out the multinationals, is the one thing that could truly bring the "Peak Oil" nightmare to pass, a future in which we are condemned to use ever-diminishing supplies of oil without yet having discovered adequate substitutes.

Russian oil production, thought to be the great new "swing source" of non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries expansion, appears to have peaked in the face of expropriation and embezzlement, while autarkic Mexico, Nigeria and Venezuela have all seen substantial recent production declines in spite of high prices. There are a few counterexamples: Iraq's oil reserves have doubled since grown-up oil companies were allowed back to explore there in 2003, while recent Brazilian oil discoveries have been substantial because Petrobras has become open to foreign exploration and production partners.


Phil Flynn: Risky Business

Good old fashioned risk premium revisited the oil market complex and growing fears of peak oil. Friday, after reports that Nigerian rebels blew up a key Nigerian pipeline, the bulls ran prices again to a new all time high. The trial of militant leader is underway and his group is pledging further attacks. For the first time in awhile the market focused on increased geo-political risk.

Yet with ample supplies and slowing demand the question is why oil still drives higher. Some strong handed bulls may be having their that it’s the markets' realization that the world is just plain and simply running out of oil.


Lack of capacity foils action on oil price - Libya

ROME (Reuters) - A lack of spare global output capacity means very little can be done to tame record high oil prices, the head of Libya's National Oil Corporation Shokri Ghanem said on Tuesday.

"Very little can be done by anyone, there is not enough spare capacity to help," he told reporters. "At a price of $115 everyone is producing what it can, equally there is no more demand either."


Car Companies Target Customers (And Each Other) in Hotly Contested Asia Battleground

Every automobile on the roads of the world reflects a long and complex chain of industrial production and energy usage. Yet we live in a world where many of the highest quality resources and energy supplies have already been exploited and lower quality resources are more expensive to extract and exploit, if they are even available. So the world’s automobile industry is in the midst of a revolution in both resource availability and energy consumption.


Lifestyle change

Recently, protesting truckers slowed large sections of national highways to a halt. Around the same time, several airlines were closing or cutting operations. Meanwhile, car manufacturers were reporting some of their worst numbers in a generation.

A close look reveals that all three of these transportation problems -- and indeed many other non-transportation ones -- are tied together with a common bond, the ever increasing costs of non-renewable fuels such as oil.


Peak Oil Price Trends

Very clearly, the financial and mass media finds it is not ‘politically correct’ to explain high oil prices as due to oil simply depleting and running out.


Envirogeddon!Is it time to start wishing for the end of the world?

I would write off this hatefully regressive book as a fluke, unconnected to the environmentalism I know and love, if not for the resonances it shares with so many other green fantasies of the apocalypse. Kunstler and Weisman seem to relish the idea of an emptier earth—a longing that must have grown during eight years of Bush-era inaction on climate change and pollution. Their stories invite us to imagine how awesome the world would be if we could just live through one tiny apocalypse: Politicians, naysayers, and people who drive Hummers would get their final comeuppance.


Promise of ethanol getting lost amid global food crisis

With all the brouhaha over ethanol, its impact on food production and the near-record price of oil, the question I'm hearing the most these days is "what on earth are we going to use for fuel, then?"

How are consumers, investors and companies supposed to decide what to do when the best green fuel option has browned?


Forget carbon: you should be checking your water footprint

Ethical shopping just got harder – but the latest attempt to help conscientious consumers calculate their impact on the environment could do more to preserve scarce resources than all its predecessors.

The concept of water footprints – or "virtual water" – will tell consumers the amount of precious H2O that has been used in the manufacture of products they buy. As with carbon footprints, a "virtual water" figure will indicate the extent to which a particular product has cost the earth. And, as with carbon footprints, the message is clear: less is better.


Biggest onshore wind farm plan rejected

Plans for Britain's biggest land-based wind farm were turned down by the Scottish government yesterday, in a landmark decision with wide implications for the future development of renewable energy in the UK.

The 181-turbine development on the Hebridean island of Lewis was vetoed by Scottish ministers because it was at odds with tough protection for wildlife sites afforded by European law.


Capacity warning for oil producers

The International Monetary Fund warned oil ministers on Monday that their expansion in capacity was failing to keep up with surging demand, leading to instability in the market.

John Lipsky, the IMF's deputy director, told a meeting in Rome: "While oil demand has remained robust, the supply side response to rising prices has been disappointing."

...Supply projections had been revised downwards, particularly for producers outside the 13 Opec nations, including Mexico, Russia, and the UK, he said. That, said analysts, left the biggest producers, such as Saudi Arabia, with a greater role in increasing capacity.

However, Abdullah al-Badri, Opec's secretary ­general, revealed that rising costs could delay some of the cartel's expansion plans for a year or two.


OPEC Lays It on the Line at IEF: 'Increase Security for Demand'

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Secretary General HE Abdalla Salem El-Badri addressed an audience at the 11th International Energy Forum (IEF), held in Rome April 21, where he spoke earnestly about the need for demand security in an "increasingly interdependent energy world."

The oil is there, said Badri, particularly in OPEC's Member Countries, but "minimizing uncertainty" by ensuring "appropriate demand conditions" is necessary to alleviate the investment fears of operators.


Angola Overtakes Saudi Arabia as Biggest Oil Supplier to China

(Bloomberg) -- Angola was the top supplier of crude oil to China in the first quarter, ahead of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Oman and Russia as the world's second-biggest energy user boosted purchases to ease a domestic shortage.

Angola exported 8.48 million metric tons of crude to China in the three months ended March 31, about 688,000 barrels a day and 55 percent more than a year earlier, the Beijing-based Customs General Administration said today. Saudi Arabia shipped 8.18 million tons, a 38 percent increase.


China sees 2008 power shortfall at 10 GW

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's power demand this year could outpace supply by up to 10 gigawatts (GW), with temporary brownouts hitting parts of the south during the summer, the deputy head of the country's power regulator said on Tuesday.

China's power firms are building new power stations each year but coal burning generators are struggling with soaring fuel costs, an over-stretched domestic transport system and strong competition for supplies.


Australia: National bonanza sitting on shelf

AUSTRALIA may be sitting on an oil and gas bonanza after winning legal ownership of a slice of undersea territory five times the size of France.

In a landmark judgement by a United Nations commission, Australia expanded its borders by almost 35%, or 2.5 million square kilometres, including a seabed thought to harbour fossil fuels and minerals.


'Food crisis': world reaction

Readers from around the world have sent their reaction to the rise in global food prices.


Biofuels starving our people, leaders tell UN

The leaders of Bolivia and Peru have attacked the use of biofuels, saying they have made food too expensive for the poor.

Speaking at the United Nations, the Bolivian president, Evo Morales, said the increased use of farmland for fuel crops was causing a "tremendous increase" in food prices.


Eco-friendly events can leave large, unfriendly footprints

Events with green themes are drawing unprecedented crowds — and often leaving crater-sized environmental footprints.

That's the message from concerned activists and consultants who are calling on organizers of everything from green conferences to environmental festivals to green up their own acts. At stake, they say, are more than the copious waste and carbon emissions that public events routinely generate. Lost in waste-intensive events are precious teaching moments and a measure of credibility for environmental initiatives.


Marketing efforts may end up in green blur

Earth Day — a day designed for promoting environmental issues — has been around for 38 years. But the annual event has been gaining visibility thanks to marketers seeking favor with increasingly green-conscious consumers through ad campaigns, press releases and websites that ballyhoo their eco-efforts.


Oil hits new record above $118 a barrel

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose to a record high above $118 on Tuesday, boosted by a jump in oil demand last month from China, the world's second biggest energy consumer, and worries about supply from key producers Russia and Nigeria.

U.S. light crude for May delivery was up 25 cents at $117.73 a barrel by 1108 GMT (7:08 a.m. EDT), easing from an all-time peak of $118.05 hit earlier in the day.

London Brent crude was up 40 cents at $114.83 a barrel, after rising to a record peak of $115.03.

Oil has hit a string of record highs this month, driven by booming demand from emerging markets such as China that has coincided with long-term supply constraints.


U.S. says high oil prices risky to economy

ROME (Reuters) - Oil prices that hit a record on Tuesday are clearly too high and not beneficial for the U.S. economy, a top U.S. energy official said.

The United States has been remarkably resilient in the face of expensive energy, but a rally on oil to more than $118 a barrel is an economic threat, U.S. Acting Deputy Secretary of Energy Jeffrey Kupfer told a news briefing.


OPEC says it will lift production capacity by 5 mln bpd by 2012

ROME (AFP) - The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plans to lift production capacity by five million barrels per day by 2012, the cartel's secretary general Abdalla Salem El-Badri said here on Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum here, El-Badri also said that the cartel aimed to boost production capacity by nine million bpd by 2020.


Indian oil minister visits Pakistan for talks on Iran pipeline

NEW DELHI (AFP) - India's oil minister Murli Deora was to hold talks in Pakistan this week on a seven-billion dollar transnational gas pipeline from Iran, a senior oil ministry official said Tuesday.


Kazakhstan gears up for electricity shortages

ASTANA (Reuters) - Kazakhstan plans to build new power plants and import more gas from neighbouring Uzbekistan to cope with an electricity deficit it is likely to face later this year, Energy Minister Sauat Mynbayev said on Tuesday.

The economy has grown by 10 percent a year on average since 2000, fuelled by booming oil and metals exports. A record-cold winter in early 2008 made the government cut supplies to some industrial consumers due to high electricity consumption.


Arch Coal sees power shortages if plants not built

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Electricity shortages are likely in the United States in two or three years unless more coal-fired power plants are built, the head of coal producer Arch Coal Inc said on Monday.

"We are heading toward serious shortfalls," Chairman and Chief Executive Steven Leer said during a conference call with analysts to discuss the company's first-quarter financial results.

"Much of the United States will fall below the 15 percent reserve level in '09," he said.


Peak oil in Russia?

Barclays Capital said it expected non-OPEC supply to be "at best very weak in 2008" and that it expected supply to actually fall, despite daily record high prices. OPEC producers do not have spare capacity to make up for the decline, which are thought to be worst in the North Sea and Mexico.

Russia, the second largest oil producer in the world after Saudi Arabia, has been producing less and less oil, and has seen a sharp drop in output since 2004, with a 7 per cent decline last year. Barclays Capital expects Russia's supply reduction to have significant ramifications in the global oil market.


U.S. oil firms want Libya exempted from terrorism compensation law

WASHINGTON: One by one, top executives of American oil companies met privately over the past year with the Libyan leader Muammar el-Qaddafi - often in his trademark Bedouin tent - as they lined up contracts allowing them to tap into the country's oil reserves.

But now, thanks to a law that threatens those deals, the new allies are working Capitol Hill. The American oil industry and the Libyan government, once a pariah in Washington, have hired high-profile lobbyists, buttonholed lawmakers and enlisted help from the Bush administration, all in an effort to win an exemption from a law that Congress passed in January that is intended to ensure that victims of terrorist attacks are compensated.


Peak Oil: Why Oil reserves are depleting

MUMBAI: Do you know what is Peak Oil and how the decline in oil production is affecting companies and countries across the globe?


Peak oil problems need facing now

AN audience at a recent meeting in Candelo was advised not to wait for the impacts of Peak Oil to hit Australia, but to plan and act now to cushion its effects.

The advice came from Cuban Permaculturist, Roberto Perez who works as an educator for the Foundation For Nature and Humanity, Cubas major environment organisation based in Havana.


Climate projects prevented 135 million tonnes of CO2: agency

OSLO (AFP) - Projects to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries have prevented 135 million tonnes of CO2 emissions from entering Earth's atmosphere so far, the Norwegian classification group Det Norske Veritas (DNV) said on Monday.


Climate change talks 'heading for trouble'

SINGAPORE (AFP) - Governments negotiating a new climate change treaty, due next year, remain far apart on many issues, and this should be a "warning sign" that the world is facing trouble, a top UN environmental official said Tuesday.


Norway gives Tanzania funds to fight climate change

OSLO (AFP) - A Norwegian aid package will give 500 million kroner (100 million dollars, 63 million euros) to Tanzania over five years to tackle climate change and deforestation, Norway's government said Monday.

Tanzania has one of the fastest rates of deforestation in Africa, which aggravates climate change, Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement released in Oslo.


When Storms and Floods Menace Business

Whether related to climate change or not, recent windstorms, floods, and other natural disturbances are causing greater losses than ever to U.S. multinationals, says Shivan Subramaniam, chairman and chief executive of FM Global. The Johnstown (R.I.) company insures about a third of the 1,000 largest U.S. corporations. Subramaniam says CEOs are going to have to do a better job anticipating disruptions to their global supply chains and information technology systems, among other steps, to avoid losing market share.


Happy Earth Day!

The Wall Street Journal firmly enters doomer territory today, with two front page articles about peak oil:
First, the admission that the easy oil is over in Saudi Arabia, and that we can't count on them to grow any further:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120881050953632313.html?mod=todays_us_pa...
The article quotes Simmons, Skrewbowski, Saleri, and Hussieni. Finally, recognition on the front page that Saudi Arabia is "dipping into its last big basins of oil."
Then, right below it, is the article on suburban agriculture:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120882472974233235.html?mod=todays_us_pa...
A bus driver in Boulder, Colorado is turning front lawns into vegetable gardens, and is effectively farming on shares: the owners of the yard get a portion of what he grows, in exchange for the land and some gardening services.
I think we all know how these relate.

From the WSJ article:

But the [Khurais] project also illustrates a darker point: Even in Saudi Arabia, home to more than a quarter of the world's known recoverable reserves, the age of cheap and easily pumped oil is over.

"Khurais and Manifa are the last two giants in Saudi Arabia," says Sadad al-Husseini, a former Aramco vice president for oil exploration. "Sure, we will discover dozens of other smaller fields, but after these, we are chasing after smaller and smaller fish."

The second quote especially seems to contradict some of the assumptions of those who are expecting endless increases in production from the middle east.

And what does it tell you when their only two potential one mbpd range fields are problem plagued fields that the Saudis have barely bothered to produce in the past? BTW, waterfloods, especially in a lower permeability reservoir, are never sure things.

It tells me that oil has been rising at about 20 cents a day for the past six months or so, and that there is no end in sight. It tells me that Shell is sending their people out to NPR, trying to let everyone know that we have two choices: cooperation in powering down, or a "scramble" for resources involving young men in kevlar, tanks, and helicopters. Shell isn't saying that last part out loud, of course, but what else does a scramble between nations mean?

There seems to be an emerging pr campaign: Shell says cooperate as oil production floats downward, Saudi says we are saving some unknown, hidden fields for our grandchildren. Just different ways of saying the peak was probably in 2005, and hang on for the ride.

Good to point out Shell's recent PR/educational moves.
My colleague comments on the Shell scramble/blueprint scenarios here:

http://www.commoncurrent.com/notes/2008/04/shell-oil-scenario-oil-supply...

Since he and I work more on the "blueprint" side of government policy and programs, the blog discusses our efforts there.

Cheers.
Ken

That's great news that some people are pulling their heads out of the sand. Now if only the same could be said for the IMF's Lipsky:

"While oil demand has remained robust, the supply side response to rising prices has been disappointing."

Is it just me, or is that like saying "Bad Dog!" to the dingo that just ate your baby?

Their heads were actually in their own tookus' and apparently that is where Lipsky's (and Yergin's et. al.) still is (are). Perhaps if their heads were in the sand they could have seen that there was less oil there than they had been positing.

Kuntsler and some others are always talking about "the death of suburbia". I have heard high rises referred to as "green". Try growing crops on your high rise balcony - assuming you have one.

I think rural towns are going to be the hardest hit by peak oil, not suburbia. There was an article recently on small towns in Northern California. If you didn't work in the town you were in, it could be a very long drive to get to your job in some other small town. And the jobs were not high paying, so any large increase in gas prices would seem to force a move, as there is no public transportation - unlike suburbia which usually has some mass transit, even if not at the same level as a city.

I disagree. I think that the less densely populated the region, the better. People living in really remote areas will fare better than those living in agricultural deserts, rural people will fare better than those in the suburbs, and suburbans will fare better than city dwellers. The more land, better topsoil & more water one has available the better, altho when mass starvation impends defending a crop from hungry marauders won't be easy.

I think it depends on how long electricity continues to be available most of the time. Once we get to serious electrical problems, the less dense areas will fare best, especially if people can get sufficient water and grow their own food. Areas with a very deep water table will have problems, especially if they don't get a lot of rain.

I don't believe in the kind of apocalyptic collapse that many here do, but I would like to point out that a small farm is very difficult to defend against a fair sized number of armed men (say, 20). If one genuinely expects a collapse then it would make sense to get in a position where you're the guy in charge of the raging mob, wealthy and powerful enough to offer protection from the raging mob or a member of the clergy who often end up either in charge or acting in lieu of a justice system. At least that's the way it played out when Rome collapsed.

How did these 20 armed men get to the farm? On camels? You see, if things get that bad, transport will be back to animal/bicycle. I think that the more likely scenario in that case is that no one ever shows up.

A well-organized group of people determined to rob and steal to survive, or even prosper at the expense of others during a period of lawlessness, will move from household to household, and from homestead to homestead, stealing supplies as they go. It is not improbable that they can hopscotch through the countryside this way.

People will not sit still and starve, and even some of those who would never have dreamt of harming a neighbor during good times, will rationalize "temporarily" setting aside their morality in order to feed their families. Rabble-rousers will demonize the "haves" as being either: 1) the rich who "got us into this mess," 2) "profiteeers" who have benefitted from chaos at the "average person's" expense, or 3) "hoarders" who are responsible for a scarcity of supplies and who are "holding out" on "the rest of us".

Protection will come as it always does, through an organized militia that is better coordinated and has better arms and communication than the roving bands of thieves. Justice will be dispensed locally. If a larger force comes one's way (an army), you'll give them what they want and profess loyalty to their cause, or flee and become a refugee.

FiniteQuantity, you need to look around the corner. The problems you describe of small town workers losing their jobs and having to move long distances for another job is an issue for 2008. By 2009 people everywhere will be losing their jobs and by then a rural location will be a much better survival choice. This is not going to play out as "a rough patch in the economic road" but as a collapse of the economic system as we know it.

If society collapses you had better be very rural and very well armed and very skilled at all the things one needs to do to survive. A collapse of society would be so bad that a large bottle of sleeping pills might be the best item to horde.

Sharecropping + prolongued strife over land = feudalism.

If society collapses

Not if. When.

The 3 scenarios outlined in the Hirsch report assume a "crash program rate of implementation." In the most dire scenario, mitigation is not undertaken until global oil production peaks. This will leave the world with a "significant liquid fuels deficit for more than two decades" that "will almost certainly cause major economic upheaval".

Thus far, mitigation efforts in the U.S. have been (at best) non-existent. At worst, counterproductive. Biofuels are an unmitigated disaster.

Optimists say "we" can turn this sorry state of affairs around once people start to feel the effects of a deteriorating food and energy environment. This is rubbish. As one poster puts it, "we" will do nothing (one has to define we). As an example, consider the idea that the the market, technology, and human innovation will save "us". Naomi Klein writes that "far from saving us from catastrophe, the market is developing fortresses to shield the haves from the victims of the future":

The market, however, appears to have other ideas about how to meet the challenges of an increasingly disaster-prone world. According to Lloyd [an executive who is trusted by such clients as Goldman Sachs and Marsh & McLennan], the really big money - despite all the government incentives - is turning away from clean-energy technologies, and is banking instead on gadgets that promise to seal wealthy countries and individuals into hi-tech fortresses.

Serious mitigation won't be undertaken until well after the peak, if ever. Some posters still seem to think non-collapse is still in the cards. However, if the Hirsch report was updated, so as to include the latest information on Saudi, Russia, & net exports, I believe this assertion could be put to rest once and for all.

One thing is clear. As civilization rolls off a cliff, there will be no shortage of bickering and blaming. The pro-nuclear camp will insist that it is the anti-nuclear crowd that is standing in the way of viable technological "progress". On the other side, the blame will be put on the shoulders of the technophiles, who refuse to accept realistic limits to growth.

This will merely confirm what some here have said all along: ours is a people problem, not a technical one.

This will merely confirm what some here have said all along: ours is a people problem, not a technical one.

I think that is exactly right, the question before us then isn't what to do about then energy problem. It's what to do about the people problem, also known as the collective action problem, the prisoner's dilemma, and the tragedy of the commons. All of which are manifestations of the human proclivity to engage in zero sum games. Until we solve this problem Rome will fall again and again and again.

Peak oil and global warming are not the problem, they are the consequences. the problem is a collective action problem and an inability to make good long term plans.

-Tim

Rural towns will be hard hit, of course, and poverty will be rampant.

However, rural poverty will be quite tolerable compared with urban squalor. For a while, anyway, people will imagine that their chances are better in the city, and the rural poor will continue to sell their sons and daughters into urban slavery, but cannibalism is self-limiting. Cities are not the wave of the future.

It just occurred to me that the safest place to live might be the Washington DC metro area. With the world's most powerful military and all our politicians headquartered there, it is likely that they will do everything in their power to keep that place running.

It just occurred to me that the safest place to live might be the Washington DC metro area. With the world's most powerful military and all our politicians headquartered there,

I don't know. One might have said the same thing about Baghdad and the Green Zone.

The Green Zone is starting to remind me of the Alamo.

Re: Getting to a job....There is an underlying assumption that business as usual (BAU) continues in some form and that people have jobs to get to. I have long argued that BAU based upon an economy that relies on consumer spending for 60%+ of GDP is a dead end.

Aside from population overshoot exceeding our resources bases, one has to consider all of the turmoil in the financial markets and the vast, essentially unpayable, debt of individuals, corporations and governments. In my view, a collapse of some kind is inevitable. Whether it follows the five stages of collapse outlined by Orlov - http://www.energybulletin.net/print.php?id=40919 - or not is unimportant to me.

What is important is the degree to which people can provide for their own needs. In this, I agree with dd above that it is more likely that people in less densely populated areas will probably have a better chance.

One decided advantage of living in the boondocks as I do is that one has to have a large skill set to survive. We have immediate knowledge of what it takes to get by because that's the way we live now. We are also used to living low on the hog and making do. We are used to co-operating on projects and helping each other.

Here's a real life example of what I mean: We get snowed in for 1-3 weeks every winter and often more than once. The power may or may not be on. It gets old after a while but it's hardly the end of the world. My question would be, "How many urban or suburban people would take this as the natural course of life?" But, isn't this closer to what the future may hold than BAU?

Todd

I agree, Finite.

I agree because I live in Exurbia, in the outer asteroid belt, and people ARE losing their jobs, scraping by on what few benefits they can get (and out here in Reddest Red America, getting a gov't check even if just for Food Stamps is a badge of honor) and the percentage of homeless is the highest you'll find outside of San Francisco's Tenderloin.

And hi-rises if they are surrounded by ponds and fields, classic say Vietnamese style intensive farming, are very green. As green as Viet or Indian type shacks? No, but far more green than the 2-3 acres and a horse and 100+ miles commute daily that's the norm here. Or the gov't check for people not growing anything (you can't here) and living on Kraft mac and cheese.

high rises above about 5 stories are pretty hard to negotiate without elevators. Not so green, I think

Looks like it's now out from behind the paywall.

Saudis Face Hurdle In New Oil Drilling

Mudd and Diesendorf publish paper on nuclear resources and it's eco-efficiency

This paper is a case study of the energy, water, and carbon costs of uranium mining and milling within the context of the nuclear energy chain.

http://pubs.acs.org/cgi-bin/sample.cgi/esthag/2008/42/i07/html/es702249v...
Sustainability of Uranium Mining and Milling: Toward Quantifying Resources and Eco-Efficiency

They are now just using FUD instead of directly lying. That's something. For instance, in the Olympic Dam mine they are giving the energy cost as if it was a uranium mine instead of a copper and gold mine with minor uranium, iron ore, and silver values.
That's an improvement over direct lying.

From NPR's Morning Edition:

Shell's Chief Strategist: Two Scenarios in Oil's Future

Oil prices reached $117 a barrel this month, triggering speculation about where the world's energy supply is headed. Jeremy Bentham, head strategist for Shell Oil, which recently released an energy forecast looking to the year 2050, talks with co-host Steve Inskeep about his company's outlook for the world energy market.

RADIO CLIP [7 min 47 sec]
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89831088

Very peak oil without saying so. It sounded like another step in laying groundwork for the new no-fuel reality.

Shell's CEO sent an email to all company employees in January basically outlining the same scenarios. In the email, he explicitly stated that employees could use the information in their external communications.

I think that the senior managers at Shell have a very good idea of what is coming and they want to ramp up the PR campaign as quickly as possible.

"I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran," Clinton said in an interview on ABC's "Good Morning America."

I guess when you are contemplating mass murder, it really does take a village.