248 comments on DrumBeat: April 25, 2008
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248 comments on DrumBeat: April 25, 2008
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(top link http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=afwStwp54V7o&refer=e... )
The verb Forestall means :
To prohibit from occurring by advance planning or action: avert, forfend, obviate, preclude, prevent, rule out, stave off, ward (off) ... according to answers.com
Is this the silliest point in time? Where people are allowed to say the maximum of stupid things....
Impossibilities are approved and printed with Fat Types in MSM, never double checked.. just swollowed and accepted!
The 2 things that amazed me about the Bloomberg article:
1. They mention peak-oil outright and give its simplified definition.
2. They don't 100% trash peak-oil researchers.
The last line is actually a big statement on a major financial web site.
If Russian production is declining as well, will KSA's "slower growth pace" really help out the world situation.
Step by step...MSM is facing up to some hard, cold facts.
Obviously there is a “silent approval of PO taking place/imminent”, since they state that it (PO) can be Forestalled! Why forestall anything that doesn’t exist nor will happen …?
Also strange from within that article :
Right now WTI is at 118 $ ....and it is early 2008.
Your post Paal caught my eye. 114 by 2015, yet right now in 08 its 118?! Really makes you wonder if these guys worked on this article in a mountain hideaway and then published it before watching the revolving ticker on CNBC to see what oil is actually trading at. Either that, or they work for CERA.
Exactly. I think it would be unrealistic for any of us here to expect the MSM to suddenly have a sea change of opinion and embrace peak oil. Nevertheless, they ARE mentioning it, AND not immediately dismissing it as some sort of nutbar conspiracy theory.
As the term becomes more prevalent in the media I think more inquiring minds will come across it, look into it, and take it seriously (this includes other journalists).
The process is maddeningly slow, but look how long it took AGW to be taken seriously... granted, peak oil theory may be older, but it was in the face of ever-increasing production or deliberate supply shut-ins whereas AGW was slow on the uptake in spite of increasing temps and emissions.
Besides, if the MSM 'got it' who would we make fun of?
What has been quietly accepted (without mentioning it) is that Peak $40 oil has passed. Suncorp said the other day they need a floor of 75-80, none of the proposed non-conventional work at $40. Realistically, you cannot compare "oil" extracted or derived in the future at a cost of e.g. $400 a barrel to today's oil.
It's a process of "Handling the Internalization" of the message.
They cannot come right out and say anything.
How J6P receives the amalgamation of soundbytes and internalizes them IS the task at hand.
It's not so much handling the message as handling the internalization of the message.
Watch how topics come up, watch the EXACT wording used by Expert from the xyz Foundation. (fill xyz in with your fav. Like AEI or Heritage, or or)
In my book, any time peak oil gets mentioned anywhere, no matter how it's framed, is another chance that someone ignorant of the subject may copy and paste the term into Google and eventually find their way here.
I would prefer peak oil be mentioned in a more fair context, but still. I believe MSM has avoided using "peak oil" in lieu of euphamisms for over two years now in order to cloud the topic in the public's mind. Searching for the goldmine of information gets much easier when you know the correct terms upon which to search.
bernstien apparently bases his conclusion on the claim that there is no subsidense above ghawar. what an unmitigated crock of s***. the pressure in ghawar is being maintained with water injection, there would be no subsidense.
Furthermore, the oil at Ghawar is >6000 feet underground, overlain by and encased in rock. Why would the ground subside, with or without water injection? It's absurd to say the least.
Perhaps the Bernstein analyst, the much discredited Neil McMahon, thinks that oil fields are big underground caverns or somesuch.
Last thing I remember from this guy, he was saying that oil prices were going back to $35 - this was when they were at about $60. Worse than Yergin..... 'nuff said.
the pore volume of all reservoir rock is compressible. in the range of 4 x 10^-6 vol/vol/psi. in the case of unconsolidated rock, the compressibility is much greater. as the pore pressure is reduced, the pore volume compresses. in some cases, this can result in subsidense at the surface.
the removal of 60Gb (or about 84 gb of reservoir volume) from a reservoir at 7500' depth could result in subsidense, depending on the compressibility and flexibility of the overlying strata. the reservoir pressure in ghawar has been maintained by water injection for most of the reservoir life, so recent subsidense is a non issue.
hypothetically, i dont think we have enough data on ghawar to say if subsidense would or would not have occured, had the pressure been allowed to deplete.
Its not uncommon for subsidense to happen. Long Beach CA comes to mind as and example you have have many others from both mining and oil and gas. The indonesian mud volcano is probably the best example. But what does this have to do with oil outside of the fact it can happen if you withdraw the fluid. Its very common in water wells but I can't think of a worse way to measure reserve levels.
Throwing a abacus down the stairs works better.
there are examples of subsidense in some faily deep north sea fields. maybe euan means could shed some light on this, if he's around.
i dont think bernstien is trying to claim that their analysis is able to determine flow rate:
"Rapidly depleting reservoirs tend to collapse slowly in small ``micro-earthquakes'' if oil and gas are extracted"
i believe that statement implies that "rapid depletion" is not occuring. and he is correct in a sense, pressure depletion is not occuring.
Ekofisk has undergone subsidence in the Norwegian CS.
"Ekofisk has undergone subsidence in the Norwegian CS."
apparently ekofisk is a different animal (not related to compressional subsidense).
i found this on wiki:
"Detailed geological investigation showed that it was the result of delayed compactional diagenesis of the Chalk Formation reservoir rocks. As hydrocarbons were produced and replaced with water"
yeah I know.
Different beast altogether.
Compaction is going on in the north sea and the North Sea southern basin is subsiding anyway (eg Essex and Holland ) Just as Scandinavia and Northern Scotland are rising due to isostatic readjustment.
The Ghawar satellite story is just nonsense
I'm very foggy on this point. To the extent that brine displaces oil, wouldn't subsidence only be associated the pore compression due to the pressure differential between "normal" reservoir pressures [more or less the pressure of a standing column of brine to formation depth] and whatever additional pressures might be present due to gas in solution?
Ekofisk has a water column (north Sea)
And then a few thousand feet of uncompacted claystones that are fairly recent and results of rapid deposition and undergoing de-watering and are therefore prone to continued compaction and loss of volume These ultimately follow a normal compaction trend , though overpressure was a problem , but near surface are uncompacted.
Add the weight of a few thousand tons of platform(s) on top of this.
Ekofisk reservoir is a soft chalk. I believe the entire column is still undergoing diagenesis and prone to compaction. Then extract the oil at virgin formation pressure from the chalk. Quickly...
But, it is not Ghawar and the subsidence (or lack of) is not an issue at Ghawar.
Someone up top suggested that many seem to believe that oil is found in giant underground pools. It is true that many people do seem to think this and I have heard this myself.
This article is not worth anymore time from any here except to say it is doo-doo.
Just how is a satellite going to determine limited subsidence, unless we are talking a very detailed SAR radar (something Geoville don't mention in their website service list)?
I have to wonder if someone might have been repurposing JoulesBurn's work - but they couldn't be that crass, could they?
I don't know if they like my work or not, but I am definitely a fan of their brand of comedy:
Satellite Sleuthing Gone Bad
Can't wait to read Abqaiq and Eat It Too.
I can't either. Oh wait...
ASTER elevation data is no better than +/- 12.5m at best (according to a NASA doc). So there is zero percentage chance that they could be estimating reservoir collapse using it.
I'd also suggest that from the diagram,
if that's what they have produced, would call their work even further into question. The red looks to be gas, so ignoring that they actually suggest no drilling in most of Ghawar. Hardly something to base a "everything's fine" on, particularly since Aramco have already stated loads of infill drilling.
Do people actually pay for work of this standard?
They alluded to the current "research" on satellite-based interferometry in their previous performance. It seemed ridiculous at the time because, as others have pointed out, Ghawar is kept under pressure -- but I didn't comment on the idea because I didn't want to discourage them from actually going forward with it. Sort of like knowing that someone is going to slip on a banana peel.
I don't know where they got their data from (not ASTER), but SAR can resolve small changes.
SAR can't do miracles, even UWB with a wide aperture, particularly from orbit with all the effects that can produce. That goes double when the region you're talking about is covered by shifting sand dunes.
Frankly I'd have to say the whole thing doesn't pass the sniff test.
"Do people actually pay for work of this standard?"
All the time when they want a particular answer.
Hang on a minute....
Is that all they have? Satellite data?
Ghawar is a grain supported carbonate reservior with water injection to maintain formation pressure with a relatively light overburden cover and on land.
Interestingly, the article states "Rapidly depleting reservoirs tend to collapse slowly in small ``micro-earthquakes'' if oil and gas are extracted too rapidly for water or other substances to fill the gaps, McMahon told Bloomberg News in December" while they keep up pressure by waterinjection.
And it concludes by asserting "The field may be showing signs of ``mild production decline rates at worst.'' "
Which is still a decline off course
Actually if they are blowing down the gas caps on ghawar right now then we should
have some decent seismic data from the area. I'm guessing that gas cap blowdown probably generates a lot more seismic activity then water driven oil extraction.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V9Y-4FR8PT6-2...
And
I found this
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V7P-3VB9B6V-1...
Plus KSA has a seismic array did not find the data.
However the second paper is interesting since it seems to identify the source rock for Ghawar I have not seen anyone calculate how large a reserve could be based on the size of the source rock formation. However given KSA's wild claim it might be interesting to bound them based on the size of the original source rock deposits.
Would blowing down the gas cap manifest itself as a measurable P-Wave or the like?
Dunno myself but it seems to me that it could be big enough to show up on seismic. Considering your basically not replacing the gas with anything else.
I'd assume that its a good contender.
http://www.ig.utexas.edu/research/projects/eq/faq/tx.htm
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v257/n5528/abs/257661a0.html
Blowing down the gas cap on a field the size of Ghawar's gotta have some effect.
Even more telling is the straw man: their study "concludes that the Saudi peak oil production conspiracy theories, based on little or incomplete current field data, do not fit with our findings." I am not sure what conspiracy theory they are referring to, since a conspiracy usually involves more than one person and an agreement to commit a bad act. They certainly cannot be referring to Matthew Simmons, since his arguments are made by himself, for good purposes, and on a significant amount of data. Jeepers, for the money these guys make, they should be able to write better than that and knock down a better argument than that-- unless the data they do have is so compelling that this is the only type of argument that they can refute. The rest of our arguments, eh, they won't consider just now. So, carry on, BAU, oil prices have reached their limits, go back to your credit cards and ARM's and SUV's.
anybody who has been reading tod would recognize this scam. but bernstiens claim has enough plausibility to sound authoritative. i think another term for this is goblygook.
and as i have heard many times: if you cant dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit.
The eternal skeptics' question: "Who profits? Who pays?"
Perhaps peak oil denial is just a conspiracy to increase the price of oil without inducing general panic.
Perhaps peak oil theory is just a conspiracy to stampede the masses into paying more for oil.
Perhaps we are entering a new and dangerous phase of civilization, and no one, least of all the leaders, know what to do.
the underlying reality will be clear soon enough.
I am beginning to wonder what good it does me to watch the asteroid approach the earth. Who will listen to Chicken Little -- if the sky is indeed falling, no one can push it back up. Reading the Oil Drum (and now, the Automatic Earth) has a sort of morbid fascination for me -- and I justify my sick obsession by convincing myself I am learning some things that will help me survive the coming tectonic shifts.
Start watching Japan:
The net loss of 153.9 billion yen ($1.5 billion) in the three months ended March 31 compared with profit of 33.1 billion yen a year earlier, the Tokyo-based firm said in a statement today. The loss was 15 times larger than the most pessimistic estimate among six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Nomura fell 5 percent to 1582.21 yen in German trading after the announcement.
Nomura joined rivals including Merrill Lynch & Co. in reducing the value of bond-insurance contracts after a slump in subprime-infected mortgage securities triggered more than $300 billion in losses and writedowns worldwide. Chief Executive Officer Kenichi Watanabe, reporting earnings for the first time, must also contend with a 27 percent drop in investment banking fees and an insider trading scandal.
``It's clear they haven't managed to boost their main businesses to cover the losses, and that's problematic,'' said Yoshihisa Okamoto, a fund manager at Mizuho Asset Management Co. in Tokyo, which oversees the equivalent of $26 billion."
This story's being covered up.
Bloomberg.com: Japan
Nomura Posts Record Loss on Bond-Insurance Provisions (Update5) ... More News. Government Bonds Fall Most in Nine Years, Sparking Halt in Futures Trading ...
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aC2ilbTGV2Bw&refer=japan - 4 hours ago - Similar pages
But there's nothing in the story about that last sentence.
NeverLNG writes: "Reading the Oil Drum (and now, the Automatic Earth) has a sort of morbid fascination for me -- and I justify my sick obsession by convincing myself I am learning some things that will help me survive the coming tectonic shifts."
I have a similar fascination. I think I'm watching a slow motion train wreck from several cars back from the engine and I just can't take my eyes from the scene. In my minds eye the trains are going too fast to jump off. Several do and most don't live beyond the jump. I can see the other train with dozens of rail cars similar to mine just around a long, long curve. I hope a TV commercial break doesn't cut in. This is gonna be sumptin'.
No worries about the commercial break, since you are actually on the train.
Be hard to deplete reservoir pressure below virgin with no pumps, huh Elwood.
Flowing wells.
Unbelievable waste of time and money.
FF
"Unbelievable waste of time and money."
agreed, the bernstien article is a waste of time. but many ignoranties(new word) wont know the difference and buy it.
you mean
Ignoratii
as in
Literatii
or
Gliteratii
ignoratii or ignorantii,
couldnt find either on dictonary.com
They are not in any dictionary.
They are colloquial terms for the great and good (writers , artises, politicians, celebraties and and other gang leaders in London)
"concludes that the Saudi peak oil production conspiracy theories, based on little or incomplete current field data, do not fit with our findings."
AND
they should be able to write better than that
They CAN, but that's NOT the job at hand.
See my post above about what their "Task" is with giving the news.
Same link:
How on earth did Saudi oil production get to be a conspiracy theory. Sure Saudi is very secretive about their production but that is just their nature. They were very secretive from day one, from even before there was oil found in Saudi Arabia. Saudi, and every other Mid East OPEC nation is behaving exactly as they have always behaved, very secretive and always denying that there are any real production problems.
But saying it is a conspiracy theory makes it sound a little kooky. It makes it sound if the idea that Saudi is peaking is a theory of a bunch of wingnuts and to be taken with a grain of salt. But geology cannot be a conspiracy theory. Facts of geology can be denied, the creationists are doing that today, but that does not make it a conspiracy theory. It just means those doing the denying are either really dumb or a really big liar.
Ron Patterson
As I have previously noted, Peter Huber--who believes that the sum of the output of a group of depleting energy sources will show an infinite rate of increase--is considered mainstream, while people who believe that a finite world has finite limits are considered akin to space alien cultists.
I don't know how you figured it out, but as a space alien I really resent being called a cultist!
That, of course, is essentially a religious position -- unassailable, because data doesn't matter. The Earth is the center of the Universe because God made it that way.
Schools nowadays teach only adherence to received wisdom -- critical thinking is anathema.
Can anyone doubt that we are headed back into a medieval theocracy?
.
Does data matter with this claim? This is just as goofy a misstatement as the ones in the article you refer to. I know for a fact that one teacher teaches critical thinking, and that would be me. I do this pretty much every day in my 9th grade English classes.
I can't believe I'm alone. In fact I know that I'm not.
Well said and well done, Bosuncookie.
Wayback when, with the exception of an exceptional physics teacher, most of the critical skills I learned in school could be attributed to English teachers.
My daughter's grade 12 philosophy teacher showed his class a battery powered electric drill of several years vintage and his grandfather's manual drill just the other day. He described his unsuccessful attempt to replace his worn out batteries for the electric unit and described out he completed his home project with his grand-dad's hand drill.
He was teaching them about durability, sustainable systems and resilience, as well as waste. He led the class to consider the vulnerability of technically complex systems, and so on. He is a wonderful teacher, showing and directing his students to films and books dealing with peak oil, among many related subjects. Of course, they are also become familiar with the great philosophers, but most importantly they are learning how to frame questions.
There are a lot of goofy misstatements on TOD. Some of the most silly claim that the liberal arts and humanities are useless luxeries, or close to it. To prepare for a post-peak world, it is opined, young people had better concentrate on 'practical' matters.
There is nothing more practical than learning how to think clearly, critically and imaginatively.
Thanks. I'm just as big a critic of our educational system as the next person; in fact, I chafe under many of the maddening contradictions inherent in my school and my district. So often we seem to be doing the opposite of what we're supposed to be doing...
Having said that, many people toil mightily in the trenches every day working against the myopia of No Child Left Behind and a world gone mad with standardized testing.
Sometimes the sweeping generalizatons get tiresome. In a nation projected to have 3.46 million teachers this year, surely there are a few teaching critical thinking!
Link: http://www.ericdigests.org/2000-3/demand.htm
I have nothing but contempt for the public education system. My granddaughter was struggling badly and her teachers and the system itself fought against us getting any additional help to her. We moved her into a private religious school and she is doing wonderfully there. My wife and daughter spend several hours each evening working with her but they did that when she was in public school too so that is not the difference. The difference is a teacher and school system that was open to customizing the child's lesson plan to help her catch up without being a constant failure.
Are there good teachers in the public school system? Certainly! But the system as currently structured is inherently flawed, focusing more on getting kids pushed through to the next grade and passing standardized tests than in actually teaching the children. Thus it IS fair to criticize the system generically. The fact that there are a few good apples in the bunch doesn't change the fact that the entire basket of apples is mostly rotten.
As the son of a professor and a public school teacher, I always wanted my children to go through the public school system. And in fact my kids did have a couple of VERY good teachers there - but this was not enough to make up for a public school system that has hopelessly failed, finished off by no child left behind and the glut of children with learning disabilities from over-vaccination and dietary problems. Now my children are enrolled in wonderful private schools where they are learning critical thinking skills - but paying for this is a major burden. I will be taking my soon-to-be-worthless 401k money and spending it on education.
In a real sense it was destroyed by money. The NCLB program is designed to pull money out of the school system to the benefit of the testing companies (i.e. Neil Bush, etc.), and once test scores were tied to funding there was no hope for it. Similarly, the initially well intentioned vaccination programs long ago became big business, and the primary motivation is now profit, with disastrous results.
Money destroys everything.
Money destroys everything.
My view: Man's greed (for money etc.) destroys everything.
Yes because all those people who created every damn thing ever created by people were not looking for a profit.
There is nothing wrong with profit gained from creating something. The problem is when most things are created just for (or mainly for) the profit. That's when quality suffers and people justify doing questionable things. Hence our corporate society of mass produced rubbish. Hell, even a guy in his garage can build a better racing motorcycle than multi-million dollar companies (Britten). Passion and drive often produce far superior results than pure profit seeking.
http://nz.youtube.com/watch?v=5HhGQJ2hn8Y
I'm not a Christian, but Timothy 6:10 comes to mind. Often misquoted as "Money is the root of all evil", it is "For the love of money is the root of all evil..."
Yes, I know there are teachers out there busting their buns to teach critical thinking -- my brother-in-law taught 9th grade history for decades, and he was awesome. But it was always an uphill struggle, and in recent years, there was more discouragement than encouragement from the administration and the parents. He is very thankful to be retired and teaches only part time as a sub.
My hat is off to those who are out there doing the work, but in general, although my comment included no data, it must be true that The Oil Drum would be mainstream if the average person thought rationally. It isn't -- it is relegated to kookdom -- because the average person in this culture thinks magically.
Uh, you've hit one of my buttons: claiming the majority of people aren't "rational" when, IMO, they are generally uncurious about the world, of short attention span and prone to excessive regard for their own conclusions. (Yep, there's a potential self-applicability of that final one :-) ) People are generally rational in the areas that interest them (even if it's only figuring out which brand of TV dinner to buy). Part of the difficulty is that curiousity is in undesirable in its own right until you're a functioning adult, yet to get it in adults parents and teachers have got to deal with curious children, who are always more work than nice children who do exactly what you want them to do without any surprises.
Regarding the excessive regard for things you've worked out yourself, I suspect that's inherent human nature and you're only disabused when the physical world doesn't respond in line with your pet theory. There's a Feynman quote from the Challenger disaster that I really like: "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled." To understand it the background is that NASA engineers responsible for the O-rings had written reports giving arguments why the O-rings would work acceptably in low temperature conditions and had given a good presentation that convinced those higher up the management hierarchy. They'd "won" the debate, but the winning the debate without being right doesn't matter.
I'd be inclined to say that the average person doesn't think about oil magically because they don't think about it at all, and to the extent that oil signals impinge on their lives, up until the last year or so there hasn't been one that's signaled "something's wrong".
That's because it calls for an act known as "criticizing".
And criticizing is unpatriotic.
Vespucciland, love it or leave it.
yes Ron, that article is one of the more interesting ones. It had a little "of everything" ..
and thus it concludes my question : Is this the silliest point in time? Answer; YES indeed it is !
The establishment is tossed between their "ultimate hope n’ wishes/BAU" and "the crude reality", this is spawning heaps of silly-talk and a good portion of cognitive dissonance. This result is given “by default”
The Geoville page on Saudi analysis: Spatial monitoring of surface movements and oil production facilities | Applications and Projects | Geoville.com May be of interest.
There's a PDF on that page but it seems to be merely a synopsis in German.
Thank you for finding this.
looks like a consultant looking for work(and promising stuff that cant be delivered). but anyhow what does the pdf say aus duetche ?
If you are curious, you can copy the text of the pdf and put it in Babelfish or some other translator. It's always a rather amusing rendition, but it's better than my German. Nothing new in the pdf, but it is obvious that GeoVista does not understand oil fields and see this as a new opportunity.