Climate change has impacted rain patterns, reducing rainfall levels and increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts
Do you have a good reference for the idea that warming will lead to droughts? It is often said, but not as far as I can see in the official reports. I think one of the official reports says that 2/3 of the world will be wetter and 1/3 drier. I think a CSIRO one says it will be drier south of a line from Sydney to Perth. Modelling shows that, and there is some reasons to believe it with the westerly patterns that bring rain to the south being held closer to the pole.
In a normal way the earth is either cold and dry or warm and wet. The very stable warm and wet period of the last 7000 years is very unusual. I'm pretty sure if it gets warmer it will get wetter. if it gets colder we're in trouble. A good way to look at the previous climate is the rate of change of sea level. Here's a link to Dr John Church's sea level history since the previous interglacial: http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/images/fig_hist_1.jpg. The last interglacial was slightly warmer and sea level rose more. Then it fell off a cliff -- sea level fell at 1cm a year which is a lot of ice building up every year somewhere. I'm interested in ideas about what would cause that. E.g. "The Arctic sea ice melted, then there was more snow across the North, then a big volcano blew, giving several dud summers in a row, then there was much greater reflectance and that snow never melted...". An explanation that worked with the models would be more convincing than one that didn't.
Obviously the effects won't be uniform across the globe (and saying that rainfall will reduce globally was probably inaccurate).
Regarding the increasing intensity / frequency of droughts theory, see these links (I think its fair to say that drought seems likely to increase in Australia and other mid-latitude countries, but not in the tropics) :
The [IPCC] TAR stated that it is likely there will be higher maximum temperatures and heat indices over many land areas, and reduced frequency of low temperatures, including frosts. More intense precipitation events are likely over many mid- to high-latitude land areas. Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought are likely in mid-latitudes. Tropical cyclones are projected to become more intense with higher peak winds and rainfall intensities. Other patterns of climate variability, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), may vary in intensity and frequency, with some climate models suggesting more El Niño-like average conditions, and others no change.
Do you have a good reference for the idea that warming will lead to droughts? It is often said, but not as far as I can see in the official reports. I think one of the official reports says that 2/3 of the world will be wetter and 1/3 drier. I think a CSIRO one says it will be drier south of a line from Sydney to Perth. Modelling shows that, and there is some reasons to believe it with the westerly patterns that bring rain to the south being held closer to the pole.
In a normal way the earth is either cold and dry or warm and wet. The very stable warm and wet period of the last 7000 years is very unusual. I'm pretty sure if it gets warmer it will get wetter. if it gets colder we're in trouble. A good way to look at the previous climate is the rate of change of sea level. Here's a link to Dr John Church's sea level history since the previous interglacial: http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/images/fig_hist_1.jpg. The last interglacial was slightly warmer and sea level rose more. Then it fell off a cliff -- sea level fell at 1cm a year which is a lot of ice building up every year somewhere. I'm interested in ideas about what would cause that. E.g. "The Arctic sea ice melted, then there was more snow across the North, then a big volcano blew, giving several dud summers in a row, then there was much greater reflectance and that snow never melted...". An explanation that worked with the models would be more convincing than one that didn't.
Obviously the effects won't be uniform across the globe (and saying that rainfall will reduce globally was probably inaccurate).
Regarding the increasing intensity / frequency of droughts theory, see these links (I think its fair to say that drought seems likely to increase in Australia and other mid-latitude countries, but not in the tropics) :
http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/science/guide/
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20070212/
http://climateprogress.org/2006/10/04/the-century-of-drought/
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/08/regional-climate-p...
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/early-warning-signs-of-glob...
http://www.rsnz.org/advisory/nz_climate/climchgwk01/wratt.php
http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/fcons.asp