<Energy Strategy for ETH Zurich: A Critical ReviewThe Oil DrumHerman Daly: Towards A Steady-State Economy >
<DrumBeat: May 4, 2008DrumBeatDrumBeat: May 6, 2008>

233 comments on DrumBeat: May 5, 2008

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

NeverLNG on May 5, 2008 - 10:54am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

On balance, short attention spans and future discounting seem like adaptive traits. Human beings always have to process new information to survive in their continually changing environments, but trying to constantly pay attention to everything forever all the time just leads to mental breakdown. This site focuses on peak oil, which is good, because someone has to do it. But other disasters are quite likely to overtake the average individual before the true effects of peak oil are felt and accurately related to that reality.

The average person isn't really going to pay much attention to "peak oil" or "global warming" over any protracted period -- it's just too diffuse. It's the same with economic meltdown. I read the Automatic Earth for its amusement content --"look what those crazy people are doing now!" -- not for investment advice.

Individuals can only deal with events that directly impact them in the more or less immediate present.

So I agree. Light a candle, and go bravely forth into the darkness.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Leanan on May 5, 2008 - 10:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

What economic meltdown?

Service sector in surprise rebound

Jobs: 'Not as bad as we thought'

More signs the world isn't ending

Factory orders in surprisingly strong jump

I'm off to buy a flatscreen TV!

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
NeverLNG on May 5, 2008 - 11:17am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It's Monday, and I just came back from a fine sunny day at the beach, ready to hit the pavement running. I'm so happy to discover the world isn't ending after all!!

"You can see the panic wave cresting and an attempt at stabilization," Van Order said. "We're moving through this but it may take longer to get through. But you've got to feel better than you did a month or two ago. There's less teeth grinding."

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/02/markets/thebuzz/index.htm

Seriously, the world is a great place. The Oil Drum is one of those things that make me believe there are a lot of people out there who really care about each other and the world. Three blind men can't adequately describe an elephant, but possibly 3 million of them can -- if they can learn to communicate with each other.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Dryki on May 5, 2008 - 12:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

There's less teeth grinding.

Exactly.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Robert Marston on May 5, 2008 - 2:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

For my part, I thought oil prices would relax a little. But I was wrong, wrong. Geopolitical turmoil now appears to be only window dressing. We have serious fundamentals driving up and keeping the price of oil high. Now I know this will sound like preaching to the choir but here goes:

1. China + India + Russia + The Middle East go on a major car buying/consumption binge.
2. Peak oil in traditional oil fuels is being masked by unconventional and biofuels. That said, the world is still struggling with all its might to stay on the bumpy plateau and not to slide down the cliff. The analysis in recent media reports has been little more than mind fogging propaganda. We're in a false sense of bliss driving into the teeth of this thing.
3. People should know something is dreadfully wrong when US gasoline consumption falls 7% from the previous year in February and the price of oil doesn't even pause.
4. Oil currently at new record (120+) and rising.
5. It's getting pretty obvious we have a serious problem right now. Not 2035, not 2018, not 2015, not 2010. NOW.

Rob out...

*goes off to plant potato gardens for friends and family*

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
chemE on May 5, 2008 - 4:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

>>3. People should know something is dreadfully wrong when US gasoline consumption falls 7% from the previous year in February and the price of oil doesn't even pause.<<

New competition for that 45% of World Gasoline output that the United States used to burn.

http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html

Surely the MSM does not expect the US to burn an expanding percentage of static/declining world gasoline output forever.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
LevinK on May 5, 2008 - 11:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

If there is some increased economic activity I don't think it is the average folk reaping the benefits. I have several friends working in restaurants and all of them are telling me the same: people are cutting back and it's much slower then last year. Hardly a surprise, given that I am cutting back on some things too, despite my income being above the average.

But of course who am I to believe: our government's statistics or my own lying eyes?

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
fleam on May 6, 2008 - 12:02am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Things are slow here, and the two pillars of our economy, real estate construction and tourism, are faltering. Well, RE is crashing actually. And tourism is down. Much of the tourism is visitors from Europe, for some reason they're fascinated cowboy towns and us wrangler-wearing locals. But the Empire is becoming more and more hostile to outsiders, and many overseas are deciding not to visit the US. It's kind of like visiting Germany in the very beginnings of Nazism, it's a nice place if you're oblivious.

A local gas station closed, no signs saying they're closing, we just noticed they're empty. A couple of friends went to the Subaru service center to ask about a part, and it's empty - building abandoned. Houses are also emptying, and the "garage sale'ing" is good.

We have a lot of 'refugees" coming here from other parts of the US, the great American tradition, going on the road in hard times to try to find a better situation. Lots of middle class people who are on the road ..... you get talking to them and find out they're losing everything, hoping one of their kids living on Disability here will take them in, that sort of thing. This area is sort of famous for being one where you can live in the woods and still be fairly close to town....

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
slinky on May 6, 2008 - 12:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

fleam,

"It's kind of like visiting Germany in the very beginnings of Nazism, it's a nice place if you're oblivious."

Too true. In my opinion, this next 4 years will be a last gasp effort by the ptb to hold on, and then everybody bales. (bails?) I think we are now on our own. Your posts indicate this is probably more true than I had hoped for. Time's up. Keep yourself alive, and use your art and musical leanings for good and survival after the system collapses.

After Ob, Cli, McC, things are gonna be really wierd. Hell, they already are now. It's not this crop of candidates we worry about, it's the ones after. Some freakazoid is going to come to power 4 years from now. Let us beware. It's on the wall and the ink is still fresh. I have never been one for the "run for the hills mentality", but seriously, run for the hills. Run away, live to fight another day.

Good night, hale and heart !!!

Jeff

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
aangel on May 5, 2008 - 11:43am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Chris Martenson (the same author as The Crash Course — which I highly recommend everyone watch) points out that the actual job loss number was 287,000 but the Bureau of Labor Statistics "adjusts" them with its Birth/Death model and comes out with 20,000.

According to the BLS, the economy shed just 20,000 jobs. The data actually said that the economy shed 287,000 jobs, but the Birth-Death model added back 267,000 jobs so there was only a -20k decline reported. Now, -20k sounds a lot better than -287k, and the -20k was used by the financial markets to bid up the stock market(s) on the basis of the fact that folks were expecting a far steeper decline in jobs.

It's fascinating (and sad) how many bad numbers the world is using to make its decisions.

The full exposition is available after a free registration here:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/headlines-may-2-2008

-Andre'

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Undertow on May 5, 2008 - 7:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'm off to buy a flatscreen TV!

Better be quick!

Get the picture: TVs may cost more

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- If you're looking for a deal on a flat-panel TV or home theater system, this may be the time to act.

Several independent electronic merchants say prices could creep higher in time for the year-end holidays.

These retailers blame a trifecta of higher production costs in China, which still accounts for a majority of the world's electronics production, ongoing weakness in the dollar and record-high fuel costs for elevating vendors' costs and eventually retailers' prices in the second-half of the year.

Down day on Wall Street

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slumped Monday as oil prices touched a record $120 a barrel, Microsoft abandoned its bid for Yahoo and analysts speculated that Bank of America could renegotiate or walk away from its deal to buy Countrywide Financial.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Joe Average on May 5, 2008 - 12:11pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"Too diffuse"? I'd have to say, "Too depressing"! No way we non-futurists want to hear the end is nigh. Has to be HUNDREDS of years left to sort out our woes! And anyway, there's always Super God to save the day.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.