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327 comments on DrumBeat: May 7, 2008

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Cornelius on May 7, 2008 - 9:09am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Daniel Yergin/CERA call for $150 oil??

TIME TO GET SHORT!!!!

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Leanan on May 7, 2008 - 9:11am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Does this mean we have to change the definition of a "Yergin"?

And clear a spot in the Cornucopian Cemetery for him?

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skip on May 7, 2008 - 9:52am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

How can Yergin have any credibility anymore? Why don't they quote someone like Colin Campbell or Ken Deffeyes or David Goodstein - folks who have been right all along? Also, how come on the NBC Nightly News or CBS Evening News they rarely, if ever, have a graph of world oil discoveries or world oil production or world population? Why does the mainstream media continue to do such a poor job even as the situation grows more and more dire? Just rhetorical questions . . .

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slinky on May 7, 2008 - 10:16am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi skip,

Yergin has NO cred. Stop viewing msm. Matter-o-fact, stop watching msm anything. Your head's in the right place. Msm is a tool. Bad tool. Scripted. Your heart will send you messages..."sumpin just don't seem right here"...because something ain't right here. Msm newz is nothing more than infotaintment. And lousy at that. No info, lotsa taint. Turn your TV OFF.

Jeff

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skip on May 7, 2008 - 10:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi Jeff,

You're right. I should turn the TV off (except for the News Hour with Jim Lehrer).

Skip

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Gwydion on May 7, 2008 - 11:28am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

You're right. I should turn the TV off (except for the News Hour with Jim Lehrer).

Sing it brutha! One thing I can recommend is on air HD-TV. Because of it's mandate by congress, most PBS stations have been broadcasting over the air in digital for some time and the News Hour is filmed in HD. I have an HD TV card for my PC and since the News never looked so good! The one problem is that if you have weak signal, it's much worse than watching regular analog TV because you don't just get a bad picture, you get a picture only occasionally.

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Twilight on May 7, 2008 - 1:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

PBS & NPR have also been quietly corrupted. I admit I still listen to NPR sometimes, but often as not I find myself shouting at the obvious bias, distortions, omissions, and outright lies. To some extent it is more insidious, because people who would not otherwise pay attention to the MSM still believe it to be trustworthy.

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Will on May 7, 2008 - 3:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

NPR could be saved, I think. But it would have to get rid the propaganda chorus called "Marketplace"... which is about the worst excuse for business journalism imaginable. My wife firmly believes that Kai Ryssdal is an actor. "It's not his fault" she always tells me when I reach for the mute button, "he's just reading his script."

Whatever...

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Gwydion on May 7, 2008 - 3:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

NPR started going down-hill as soon as they brought in Kevin Klose to be president. His former job really was spreading propaganda: he used to be the in charge of radio free europe broadcasting the wonders of capitalism to the former communists: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=2101415

I noticed right about this time NPR stopped running so much news and started running things like sports and fashion.

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jokuhl on May 7, 2008 - 4:11pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Moyers was on Democracy Now! today, and talked about his NPR experiences a bit.

http://www.democracynow.org/2005/6/22/bill_moyers_the_radical_right_wing

AMY GOODMAN: It’s great to have you with us. Bill, let’s start with the latest news. Today in Washington, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting is expected to vote on the president of their corporation. The person who is considered the favorite pick of the Chair, Kenneth Tomlinson, is Patricia de Stacy Harrison, State Department official, before that co-chair of the Republican National Committee. Your response.

BILL MOYERS: I don’t know her, but I think it’s a serious mistake to put in charge of the Corporation for Public Broadcasting a partisan, whether Democratic partisan or Republican partisan. It undermines the credibility of Public Broadcasting. It accentuates the effort of the appearance that the right wing is succeeding finally after 30 years of trying to eliminate Public Broadcasting. If they can’t eliminate it, they’re going to control it with their partisan operatives. It’s a very serious inside job.

All the attacks on Public Broadcasting in the past have come from outside. They’ve come from the Nixon White House, from Newt Gingrich when he was Speaker of the House, and they’ve been rebuffed because the Corporation for Public Broadcasting was led by principled Democrats and Republicans who took seriously their job of resisting pressure from Congress and the White House to influence Public Broadcasting. They can’t do that anymore. Now this is an inside job. Kenneth Tomlinson is there as an ally of Karl Rove to help make sure that Public Broadcasting doesn’t report the news that they don’t want reported. Miss Harris is a Republican partisan. She will work from the inside also to make sure our system is politicized.

EDIT: I guess that should read CPB and PBS

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GLT149 on May 7, 2008 - 9:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I used to listen to NPR nearly on a daily basis. I have gradually stopped listening over the past 5 or 6 years. I now listen perhaps once a month, if that - and only for a few minutes (after that I get nauseous). It's the machine's dumbing down of America. Its monotone self-righteousness and fluffy distortions cause the masses to sleepwalk into stupidity - floating on the clouds of self-delusion into the plastic happiness of never-neverland. I mean who really listens to that crap.

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slinky on May 7, 2008 - 10:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi GLT,

Yeah, I agree with your sentiment. Even NPR, PBS. and CPB, (is cpb in charge of those two?) are just a skoshe above the netwerx. Might as well be the 5th network. Well, f*ck 'em, we have the web and places like this. I'm going up to the top of my building and throwing my TV onto the pavement, and I'm gonna film it too. jokuhl, I'll send you copy to play with.

Jeff

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paal myrtvedt on May 7, 2008 - 9:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Or maybe he has recently understood how it all is linked together – plain and simple. In MSM they use the phrase Peak Oil straight forward nowadays – even without thong in cheek. Just a few months back MSM referred to Peak Oil as “a theory” …. “Claimed by those so-called peaksters” .. The times are changing f_a_s_t

(but is there room for forgivness for Yergin? Sure NO! He has been lying all the way to benefit himself , ONLY)

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triphop on May 7, 2008 - 10:11am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"Thong in Cheek" Now thats an image that really stands out.

Wikipedia thong entry

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paal myrtvedt on May 7, 2008 - 10:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

c'omon triphop, I had such thongs in my mind ! :-)

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triphop on May 7, 2008 - 10:20am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Paal, I have to say that my thongs are better than your thongs.

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paal myrtvedt on May 7, 2008 - 10:28am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes they are ! And sometimes I find English complicated ( just heaps of random letters - one placed after another)

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AlanfromBigEasy on May 7, 2008 - 10:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

But not so many letters as with degraded/simplified Icelandic.

Alan

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shmuu102 on May 7, 2008 - 9:40am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think we can call this a "Yergin Inversion"

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NeverLNG on May 7, 2008 - 9:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yergin inflation. The currency is debased.

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half full on May 7, 2008 - 11:44am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yergin re-valuation.

Just be sure to state "new Yergins" or "old Yergins" when discussing exchange rates.

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artaxt on May 7, 2008 - 3:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'm thinking we should treat them the same way. Based on Yergin's previous predictions, we should expect to see $300/bbl within the next two years. I'll guess December 30th 2009.

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Robert Marston on May 8, 2008 - 4:41am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

How about the great Yergin CYA? This guy has been so wrong, his cred as an oil oracle devastated, now he hedges with his '100 genies.' What I want to know is who is going to hold him accountable for his irresponsible research?

One other point -- that situation Russia vs Georgia is bad. Potential flash-point written all over it.

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Calorie on May 7, 2008 - 9:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Daniel Yergin, March 14th, 2008, WSJ ECO:nomics conference:

The “peak-oil” debate returned on the final day of The Wall Street Journal’s “ECO:nomics” conference, politely pitting a reluctant oil-industry worrier, Christophe de Margerie, head of France’s Total SA, against Daniel Yergin, head of bullish Cambridge Energy Research Associates. The question they hashed out: What does a $110-a-barrel price say about the supply of oil?

Mr. Yergin’s view: Not much that’s fundamental. Today’s high price is “not about the supply and demand of oil, it’s about the supply and demand of dollars,” Mr. Yergin said, citing a “flight to commodities” by investors skittish about the credit-market crunch. That shift is artificially inflating the price of oil as a hedge against inflation and a weak dollar, he said.

“This is the fifth time we’ve run out of oil,” he deadpanned, recounting past ostensible crises in the industry and talking up his company’s big database of global oil information. “With the data, you don’t see a peak.” CERA currently thinks the new ceiling of global oil production is 105 million barrels a day, and that’s only because personnel and equipment shortages are delaying new projects.

Daniel Yergin, May 7th, 2008, WSJ, Some See Oil At $150 a Barrel This Year

The world's diminished spare production capacity remains the strongest single catalyst for high prices, Mr. Yergin says.

It does appear that Yergin is in the process of pivoting.

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Nate Hagens on May 7, 2008 - 10:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

They can't use the dollar sound-bite anymore. Oil has gone from $107 to $122 in the timeframe when the dollar has rallied from 1.6 per Euro to 1.535 per Euro. So a 12% rise in oil vs a 3% RISE in dollar.

Next sound-bit is likely to be 'those damn kids on theoildrum'...

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Prof. Goose on May 7, 2008 - 11:56am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

G-d, this pisses me off. Yergin has no one holding him accountable...not even his own freaking conscience. Dastard (look it up...).

And if it ever becomes a Scooby Doo moment like that Nate, that is when we will know that it's over.

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CreosoteChris on May 7, 2008 - 4:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Cut the guy some slack.....

Maybe Yergin is finding that his CFO customers, p****d-off with making strategy decisions based on wildly-inaccurate CERA forecasts, are no longer willing to stump up large wads of wonga for them.

He's just like the rest of us - needs to make a living, if he wants to hang on to his McMansion and his V8 commute-mobile. He's beginning to understand, because his livelihood no longer depends on not understanding....

Regards Chris

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Will on May 7, 2008 - 6:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Goose....

Enjoy the moment.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you...
then you win.

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Prof. Goose on May 7, 2008 - 8:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It's a tough moment to enjoy though.

I don't revel in the people who are going to suffer over this, I don't revel in the idea that the people who have voices and resources just think this adaptation will occur without pain to the common populace, and lastly, I don't revel in the sheer lack of critical thinking that surrounds this problem in government and in our polity.

Other than that, I am jumping up and down gleefully.

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Will on May 8, 2008 - 9:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Not asking for revelation. Asking that we appreciate an important moment. CERA is done. The lying is over. We can move forward.

Gandhi's genius was his attitude about winning. Despising Yergin is easy. But Yergin was just symptomatic of social inertia. If it were not him playing the joker, another would have been used.

The people with "voices and resources" KNOW what's ahead. Yergin can embarrass them to action... but only if he continues to recant. There's nothing more powerful than a liar admitting the truth. Yergin is Saul. He is on the road to Damascus.

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Leanan on May 7, 2008 - 12:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Who, us? We're just peak-oil pranksters.

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ChrisN on May 7, 2008 - 4:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Or, as Phil Flynn likes to call us, "peak freaks." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQ_5S0bbjwU

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shargash on May 7, 2008 - 1:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Here's a new one. It's one of the best ones yet.

Oil Rises to Record as U.S. Productivity Gain May Boost Demand.

However, from an earlier article:

U.S productivity unexpectedly accelerated in the first quarter, helping combat inflation, as job cuts meant the remaining employees did more work.

Basically, they're arguing that people losing their jobs is going to increase demand for oil.

Idiots. TPTB need to get themselves some better stooges.

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better_late on May 7, 2008 - 3:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I saw this one earlier. Everyday at Bloomberg is a new laugh.

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doug fir on May 8, 2008 - 12:42am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Nate,

I saw your point of concomitant oil and dollar rally noted in a MSM story tonight looking for a reason for today's price. Some may wake up.

The way they inserted Yergin nearly floored me, reads almost as if he's an old hand predicting high prices.

"I understand there are macro factors at play as well. Global supply disruptions and geopolitics, limited spare capacity and increasing extractions costs are the factors Cambridge Energy Research Associates chairman and CNBC contributor Dan Yergin thinks could take oil prices to $150 a barrel."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/24506187/site/14081545?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%...

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Starship Trooper on May 7, 2008 - 1:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

All oil blends at http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_crude are now trading above 3 Yergins.

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Apuleius on May 7, 2008 - 3:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

CERA has a conference coming up. Oh, to be a fly on the wall..

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alan on May 7, 2008 - 9:23am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

westexas to predict oil prices at $300 a barrel in 5, 4, 3, ....

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AlanfromBigEasy on May 7, 2008 - 9:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Or is it $75 oil ?

Confused in New Orleans,

Alan

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Patently oil on May 7, 2008 - 10:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Alan,

Yes, I agree. I'm so used to being a contrarian that I'm having a hard time accepting this. I wouldn't be suprised if they drop back down for some reason like recession.

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PaulusP on May 7, 2008 - 10:52am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Alan don't be confused. The present volatility of oil prices is only the beginning. It may as well drop to $75, to rebound to $750 shortly thereafter.

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davebygolly on May 7, 2008 - 2:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

What is true is that the ongoing run up will not be without zig zags. But short of total collapse, worldwide, it's hard to imagine $75 ever being seen again. One reason is that $100 would be a point to buy and hoard til the run up resumes. Only total collapse could prevent that from working, IMO.

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greenish on May 7, 2008 - 10:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I was hoping it'd drop to 95 or so for a week so I could take a new step and buy a future or two. You can't get cheap far-off call options on crude anymore.

Wonder why?

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westexas on May 7, 2008 - 5:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Actually, my prediction for a while has been a geometric progression--$50, $100, $200, $400. . .

The only real question is the time period between the doublings.

The Yergin Indicator suggests that oil prices will trade at about twice Yergin's predicted price within a year or two of his prediction (in the summer of 2007 he predicted that oil prices in 2008 would be back down to $60, without a geopolitical event).

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davebygolly on May 7, 2008 - 5:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The only real question is the time period between the doublings.

Not to be picky, but once you say that, you no longer (except in the case of equal intervals) have exponentiality (geometric)! (You are guaranteed monotonic increasing -- meaning no dips.)

But your point is, IMO, valid, unfortunately.

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garyp on May 7, 2008 - 9:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

There is something wrong with that 'gas gauge'.

The rise in US petrol prices from a March a year ago is something around 15% (92p to 105p), not 26%. That's part of the point of high taxes, the price rises are damped.

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emdeef on May 7, 2008 - 10:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think you mean UK petrol prices

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garyp on May 7, 2008 - 11:28am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Oops, yes.

Rather than a gauge it would be nice to see them plot price against %age rise. Then people might work out how high taxes can be a good thing.

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WNC Observer on May 7, 2008 - 10:40am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

But it is a COOL graphic!

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crobar on May 7, 2008 - 9:36am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It's very hard to say whether this means $450 oil coming this year, as per past predictions, or $10 oil.

These people really are laughable in how they follow trends, who is still paying for their 'predictions'????

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Leanan on May 7, 2008 - 10:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Kevin Drum expresses his surprise:

Saying Daniel Yergin is an optimist is like saying Chris Matthews is annoying. Yergin basically thinks peak oil is Luddite crankery and that new technology will allow us to continue increasing production for at least the next several decades. He's the Pollyanna of the oil patch.

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bruce from chicago on May 7, 2008 - 10:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Kevin Drum has been one of the rare liberal political bloggers who has been following peak oil for awhile. I usually check his blog, http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/, daily.

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BC_EE on May 8, 2008 - 12:19am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Is this a spin-off? The Kevin Drum

C'mon you guys, I can't believe you didn't go for that one and I had to catch it on PDT zone.

Or is it that cheesy?

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doug fir on May 7, 2008 - 10:46am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The article states:

"At the pump, $150 oil translates into gasoline prices of more than $4.50 a gallon"

I thought the old rule of thumb translated $1 retail gas for each $25 WTI barrel increment. Is this out the window, or didn't it apply at these higher crude prices. I keep thinking that our current retail gas must catch up to $120 crude once refining margins come back.

You'd think Yergin's days are over. He's gone from a peaker to cornucopian and now back. Which way is the wind blowing? He's been so comically incorrect you wondered how he ever kept getting quoted.

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doug fir on May 8, 2008 - 12:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Any comments on the 1 to 25 rule of thumb?

Told the Yergin story at dinner. My son asked me if Yergin discovered the earth was round today too.

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BC_EE on May 8, 2008 - 12:22am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

He must have been the energy adviser on Kerry's presidential campaign.

FTR, I didn't really like the flip-flop BS and I don't have a party affiliation. Wait! I'm not even American so I can't vote... I'll be darned.

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Bl4ckVo1d on May 7, 2008 - 1:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

You have to multiply his predictions by 2. $300 oil is on the way.

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327 comments on DrumBeat: May 7, 2008

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