59 comments on Shell's Shale Plans...? (or Why I Am an Oil Shale Skeptic)
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An old article by Youngquist in the Hubbert Center Newsletter
http://hubbert.mines.edu/news/Youngquist_98-4.pdf
Walter Youngquist plans to publish the 2nd Edition of GeoDestinies. According to Amazon it is now scheduled for Aug 1, 2008. He will probably have more to say about so called oil shale
These are fantastic articles.
For my part, I think they will make a play trying to produce oil shales. That said, I don't think they'll be able to produce as much as they would like at the flow rates they would like to achieve. Seems like a terribly capital and energy intensive process. With such a high water demand in such a dry area, you'd think they are likely to run into limits pretty quick. That said, the US is desperate for domestic oil. So we'll see how this drama plays out.
IMO, 2-3 years is an awful long time to wait to bring these projects on line. I'd also like to see an EROEI on this freeze/electrify/extract process. My bet is it's worse than ethanol and worse than tar sands. And where are they going to get the electricity to bake/freeze the shale? Coal plants? Natural gas? Nuclear? Solar/wind?
As for cellulosic/algae -- it's starting to happen at the pilot/commercial level now. Another drama that should be informative to watch.
Oh, and an OT query -- Oil Watch Monthly??? I'm interested to see how you guys digest the latest EIA figures. Seems they've made another set of downward revisions...