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143 comments on Has Peak Oil--As a Meme--"Tipped"? (Out of Futures Backwardation and into Contango)
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143 comments on Has Peak Oil--As a Meme--"Tipped"? (Out of Futures Backwardation and into Contango)
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Jeff,
Thanks for the article especially the definitions. Can you (or anyone else) please explain how one would go about buying an option or where i can find this out, Oil Trading 101? For example:
Who or what are the counterparties = who are the trades done with? No point doing the trade if the counterparty cannot deliver.
I remember reading when $100 was first broken the trader bought the minimum quantity, 1,000 barrels? so presumably trades are in multiples of 1,000 barrels.
If I buy an option to purchase 1,000 barrels at $129.15 for Dec 2015 how much does this cost 1,000 x 129.15? Is a set percentage paid for the option and how much margin is required to guard against a falling price?
Is any acccount taken for inflation or a collapsing dollar? What would happen if oil were to be priced in gold or Ameros or Euros...
Does one have to take delivery of the oil or is there something similar to Contracts For Difference in the FX market where you just pay/receive the loss/profit?
Tony: I'd recommend talking to a full service commodities broker for advice on this--if you tell them how much money you want to invest, how much risk you're willing to accept, and where you think oil prices will be at X date in the future with what degree of confidence, they should be able to provide a good buy recommendation. In general, oil futures control 1000 barrels of oil, and require a margin (how much money you need to put up) of about $9000. Then, for every dollar it goes up (assuming you're long) you get $1000 deposited in your margin account at the end of the day, and every dollar it goes down you have to put $1000 into your margin account (if it falls below the maintenance requirement--about $7000). So, the problem with futures is that you can lose more than you put up in the first place. Options, on the other hand, can never lose more money than you paid to buy them (assuming you're the option holder, not the seller). So, for example, if you bought a December 2010 call option with a strike price of $150 for $3,000, and oil went to $200/barrel by the expiration date, then your option would be worth $50,000 at the expiration date. If oil was still at $130/barrel at the expiration date, your option would expire worthless. Generally you won't take delivery--you'll sell the option (or future) prior to that point. That's a very bare-bones, simplified explanation--there's lots more information available online, but I'd still recommend talking to a full-service broker until you feel confident enough in your understanding of how the markets work to trade on your own via an online broker.
Jeff, many thanks for your explanation.
I wasn't originally thinking about trading as never done anything with commodities was more interested in how it worked, but a call option might be a bit of fun instead of buying a red Ferrari:-)
If you're just interested in a wildly speculative "bet," then you can probably pick up a call option on December 2010 oil at a strike price of $250/barrel for under $5,000...