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The first major shortage has already hit, the shortage of capital.
Bill, I am not being frivolous in saying that the shortage of capital has led to a shortage in loans which has lead to a shortage of customers (c.f. the housing market) which has led to a shortage of jobs which is leading to a shortage of customers and taxpayers which is leading to a shortage of capital. The first hoarding seems to be the hording of capital by many of those who have it. In watching the machinations of the markets (equity, exchange, bonds and commodities) it seems these folks are frantically trying to find safe places to hide their capital until it is safe to apply it again. The price of oil has led to huge capital accumulations in some corporations but they are not applying most of this to new activity but are simply dispersing it in share buy backs and dividends. This money is mainly going to those refered to above who are trying to protect their capital. As the job shortage increases it may balance the supply and demand of all other goods for some time. As others have pointed out there are economic "shortages" at the bottom of society and these will gradually creep up to higher income levels as the median income level declines. Baring some physical reason for a sudden shortage things may just deteriorate with no line ups or shoot outs at the pumps or anywhere else.
The capital constriction appears accurate.
I am not sure about the "no line ups or shoot outs at the pump". Instability seems to lead to more instability. It seems the economy in sustained by the ability to trust, transport and transact. Transport is in significant trouble. Trust will likely breakdown if transportation fails.
Sadly I think you are correct. However the destitute are already resorting to theft of fuel because of their cash shortage. There are no line-ups in suburban driveways at 2AM but we will probable see more shootings there soon. As far as FF shortages go I think we will see diesel (home heating oil) and propane shortages first. My understanding is they are pure distilates from crude and cracking methods are not used to make them so their availability is directly correlated to the volume of crude being processed. Crude availability and refinery utilisation come into play here. Perhaps someone can tell us if heavier crudes have less or more diesel grade and propane than the light stuff. Of course diesel demand seems to be sensitive to economic activity so that a recession may ease the problem.I also agree that once food and fuel stop arriving reliably at the retail outlets things could get ugly very fast.
I do worry about propane. Since I've started walking to work, our household is now down to using well under 200 gal of motor fuel per year. But we probably use about five times that much or more in propane, and that's with the programable thermostat set to 66/60F all winter. I'll be chopping a lot more wood for the wood stove this winter, and need to be getting solar hot water and solar space heating on a fast track. With any luck, the next administration will increase the credits for these.
WNC...If you write that piece, you should submit it to the MountainX as well. Also, check the Iwanna...occasionally I see solar water heaters pop up in there General > Heating and Cooling > Other Heating. Generally dirt cheap.
Crappy insolation where I am and the house isn't mine, so I can only look at them and sigh.
Thanks for the tip. Since plumbing and I don't get along very well, I'm inclined to leave the solar H2O to a professional. A homebrew solar air heating panel might be within my DIY capabilities, though.
I'm not sure where you live, but here in the UK residential solar thermal in contrast to PV power is a very viable alternative - it is good for up to around 55 degrees north at least, and not many people live above that latitude.
You should be able to save around 50% of your hot water bills, and could always take the panels with you.
My lattitude is fantastic, but I'm on the north side of a mountain and surrounded by trees.
Yikes! :-(
You might want to consider relocation. I'm on a south slope with an E-W roofline, giving me a good southern exposure. That's a big reason why I bought the house - I knew that some day I might need to add solar.
Instability translates into higher risk premiums, which raise ROI thresholds impossibly high.
This kind of circular dependency is not only showing up in the capital markets, but in resoource and infrastructure markets as well. Shortages of drilling rigs can be traced around a circuitous route right back to ... a shortage of drilling rigs.
It brings to mind the childhood ditty about "There's a hole in my bucket"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There's_a_hole_in_the_bucket
Exactly right. People should start noticing that high oil prices are not resulting in a huge surge of new investments in FF exploration & production, nor in a huge program of new nuclear power plant construction, nor in nearly enough new investments in alternative energy facilities, nor in major energy efficiency schemes like Alan's EOT. There is some of this going on, to be sure, but not nearly enough. It is very much a case of much too little, much too late. Lack of capital is indeed the problem, and this is ominous, because it means that it is unlikely that the investments that need to be made ever will be made. This is the fatal flaw in cornucopian thinking: even if their technofix ideas are theoretically feasible, the lack of funding will render them economically impossible.