Nate - Lots of great information. You and I must travel in different circles because I have found that when I present the Peak Oil Theory to people there is little resistance (with $4.00 a gallon gas you have their attention). They almost immediately believe it.

But the immediate question is : "What do we do about it?

I personally believe that Americans need to do the following:

Do a complete inventory of their energy usage and make a concerted effort to halve that and then put long term goal together to halve that again. Some of these might be:

1. Quit eating meat
2. Move closer to work
3. Look for opportunities to live in walk communities with mass transit
4. Cut the size of your living space. (Clear out the junk)
5. Buy and consume based on need not want.
6. Limit children to 1 or none.

This last one meets stiff resistance. As Kurt Vonnegut pointed out: "Humans have a flaw. They love to F**k and they adore little children."

Can't put it any plainer than that.

I would phrase number 5 and number 6 differently. Also why should you stop the pleasure of consuming? Saving energy can be a lot of fun! For example if you use your bicycle every day you can afford to buy a really nice bike.

1. Move closer to work
2. Commute by bike
3. Go shopping by bike (except for furniture etc.)
4. Eat less meat (like once a week at most)
5. Cut the size of your living space
6. Limit children to 2 (this still leads to a reduction of the population)
7. Use energy saving appliances (and use smaller ones and use them less often)

My experience is that people are blaming politicians that everything gets more expensive. Politicians blame oil companies that they did not invest enough into oil exploration. Nobody wants to admit, that we just have to consume less oil and that the real problem is that oil is still too cheap.

"Nobody wants to admit, that we just have to consume less oil..."

We will consume less oil whether we "admit that we have to", or not. And the people who come out of the coming genetic bottleneck, may or may not be genetically disposed to a different mind set than we have going into it.

Perhaps some of us are enlightened enough to see ways that our behavior should be changed to fit our reduced resources, but how can this enlightened view be spread to all mankind in the time available? And what are the details of this enlightened view? Just having fewer children will leave the world to the offspring of the unenlightened.

Nice to see population growth at least made each list.

If people are going to commute by bike (which is a good idea) there needs to be a shift in how urban planners do their dirty deeds in America. We can't have centralized commercial and industrial areas and sprawling residential areas and have many people biking to work. Start intermingling the two to the greatest extent possible.

And biking to work also requires a change in the idea of a bike lane. Painting a stripe down the side of a street doesn't cut it. Put a curb where the stripe is or put the bike lane on the other side of the sidewalk. Anything less just leads to bicycling tragedies.

You also will need more mass transit in the future. If we had been smart, around 1970 we would have faced the music and started building high speed rail. Instead, in cities like Portland and San Jose, we belatedly decided to use 100-year-old abandoned technology - trolley cars.

All we need is another idiot spouting crap. Let me put it in caps so you don't miss it: THE SAFEST PLACE FOR A CYCLIST IS IN THE STREET CYCLING WITH THE FLOW OF TRAFFIC. I'm not making that up. The statistics backing up that statement may be found on the late Sheldon Brown's website (RIP). Sorry, but I've long since lost the link. But put "Sheldon Brown" into google and that will take you to his website. Ferret out the stats for yourself. Compared to cycling in the street with the flow of traffic, cycling on a bicycle path leaves you between 1.4 and 1.8 times more likely (depending on the study) to have an accident. Cycling on the sidewalk with the traffic raises your accident probability to around 2. On the sidewalk against the traffic, you're around 4 times more likely to have an accident.

You might ask yourself "why this counterintuitive statistic?" Well, first you have to understand that "strike from behind" accidents almost never happen. The stats. show that only 8% of car-bicycle accidents are the "strike from behind" variety. However, 80+% of car-bicycle accidents happen at intersections. (BTW, I'm quoting police-reported accident stats here.) Obviously you don't ride a bicycle regularly because every serious bicycle commuter knows this intuitively: The more visible you are, the less likely you are going to be struck by a car. Hence the safest place is IN THE ROAD in the traffic. Cycling on the sidewalk, or on a bicycle path that is not officially part of the road, simply removes you physically from the road and psychologically from the motorists' awareness. As I mentioned, most accidents happen at intersections. If the motorist hasn't seen you, you are more likely to be struck.

So please stop spreading unsubstantiated lies which will result in more bicycle accidents and cyclist deaths. The best sort of bike lane is in fact, a painted lane in the street with NO CURB OR BARRIER separating you from the cars. It forces motorists to be aware of your presence, which in turn, lowers the chance that you are going to get into an accident. If you haven't heard the cognitive mechanism that underpins this, search for "inattention blindness," or type '"Daniel Simons" gorilla video' into google and check it out.

I saw a posting today by West Texas distilling a news report of SUV's loosing heaps on trade-in value and some dealers actually refusing to take them (SUV's) for trade-in on new purchases.
So, why not poke congress to develop some sort of legislation whereby a person can write off the value ( need to use something like 80% of sale price perhaps since the value is dropping so ) of an auto that they can't sale and can't afford to drive. I guess the irs would have to take possession of the vehicle and I have no idea what they'd do with it. Transform it into oil well rigs perhaps. Or make bunkers to protect themselves from the auto insurance companies, tire mfg, and all the other auto related folks who'd be after their hide.

This was lots of fun to write.

[P]NM promotes programs of energy conservation.

These energy conservations programs appear to be a smoke screen to try to mask business interests.

PNM appears to be asking customers to conserve on electricity so that new construction and other causes of electricity increases, like power hungry flat panel LCD and plasma TV purchases, can continue.

Continuation of new construction may not be sustainable for energy shortage reasons. ...

http://www.prosefights.org/pnmelectric/pnmelectric.htm#dearcommissioners

6. Limit children to 1 or none.

My wife and I saw this all coming nearly 30 years ago and decided to have only one child, aborting a second. The wisdom of our decision is now clearly apparent.

Somewhere in an alternate universe a 30 year old physicist finally solves the cold fusion problem and calls home to tell his proud parents.

Even if we had cold fusion, the idea of continuing a growth based BAU type economy/society is a complete waste. There will ALWAYS be limits to growth and the continuation of this type of thing. cold fusion or whatever you have, your still putting off bigger problems for later, there is only so much land area and arable food. The problem with the world is we are relentlessly pursuing growth and are encountering diminishing marginal returns, this is a problem only we, not technology, will solve.

Back in this universe, there is no way that a 30 year old physicist is going to get something usable from the Cold Fusion effect. Firstly, because the youngest guy in the field that I know of is 48 - all the potential young people have got scared off by the severe career damage that results - and secondly because all the research that can be done on a shoestring has already been done. Cold fusion is a quantum nanotechnology / surface physics phenomenon, and only a really well-funded lab or corporation could do meaningful work in this area. Thirdly, the CF / LENR community represents a much smaller fraction of the science community (i.e. no more than about 40 active research groups worldwide) than does Peak Oil in its corner.

TOD-ers, you have no idea what it is to struggle against a really dominant cultural paradigm, believe me.

My point was murdering a child in the name of peak oil might be counter productive. We may need that individual. By all means use protection and birth control, but to try to place some noble afterthought on abortion that they were trying to help the environment is crap.

The same ethics could be used to unplug all the people on life support, then kill all that can't or won't work. Or maybe we just let the next SARS sweep the aerth and kind of thin the herd you know?

I did get your point, and it is a fair and valid one, but I couldn't let an opportunity to plug Cold Fusion (my favourite subject) go by.
Sorry for being such a philistine.

How sad.

Yes how Sad...that you would need to heap guilt on. Here is an interesting video for you:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1484635787266506285

A rush to judgement stems from an inability to express empathy...

As soon as a society devalues children and human life in general enough to either stop reproducing or killing children outright, that society is truly doomed Or as Spock would probably say (just watched Star Trek 4 with my THREE beautiful/intelligent children) "it is illogical to kill your own children, or work for the extinction of your own species"