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131 comments on UPDATED: The Oil Market's Historic Swing to Continuous Contango--Has Peak Oil "Tipped"?
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131 comments on UPDATED: The Oil Market's Historic Swing to Continuous Contango--Has Peak Oil "Tipped"?
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GAIA Host Collective
The opportunity cost for both groups is the same, though. Not selling the oil means not getting the $125 means not getting whatever else you could get for that $125.
--
JimFive
Not Quite.
Yes - both groups have the same opportunity cost - however, the petro-exporter simply seeks a higher price for that which remains for export, to compensate for the lost opportunity of selling output at subsidized domestic price. And as the domestic market is always fulfilled first, the projects initiated years ago, to meet projected global demand today, at originally projected lower prices, get mopped up by the higher domestic demand spurred by the (perceived) unexpected intl price rally.
Remember- non oecd petro exporters are typified by state planned economies - therefore higher revenues feed into commodity intensive domestic activities - new oil and gas projects, new infrastructure-national projects, militarization (to recycle petro dollars/geo-political insecurity). Meantime in the OECD rising energy prics feed into energy intensive or consuming activity: spr, military deployments, new alternative energy projects and infrastructure, non conventional oil.
So both groups (oecd/non-oecd) become more commodity and therefore energy intensive in behavior as the supply-demand balance converges, and a public sector crowding out effect is evident, as are rebound effects (higher oil price than expected>higher commodity demand the projected>higher energy demand than expected>higher oil price than forecast)
As such, it is had to see what will kill the loop except and outrite spike triggered by a physical supply cut
I did not mean my comment to sound like I was opposing the Export Land Model. I think what is indicated is that the price of oil is not accurately reflecting the value of oil, in the following sense: Oil is more valuable to the producer than the money the customer can offer, up to the point where the producer has an excess. Once the producer has filled his own needs then the market price gets set based on what the consumers are able to afford. Since there is no readily available substitute for oil the first X million barrels a day are, in effect, priceless to the producer.
--
JimFive