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What’s happening with Oman Crude?
I checked Upstream Crude oil spot prices this morning and found Oman crude up $23.76 to $143.85. I thought “surely that is a misprint” so I checked it an hour later. It had dropped sixteen cents to $143.69.
Oman crude usually trades about par with Dubai crude, or about five to ten dollars below WTI. It is a slightly heavier grade than WTI. Dubai crude is trading in its normal range so why the sudden jump in Oman crude? This is weird.
Ron Patterson
My oil trader friend couldn't find any confirmation for the Oman price, but it is still up there on Upstream. He did say that India is very aggressively buying crude and there are recurring rumors than India is planning to set up a SPR. We may be seeing governments beginning to try to buy any and all crude that they can get their hands on.
Thanks for this. I put up the same question on peakoil.com houers ago and this is the first resonable answer, but why are they then in such a rush to buy that they can not order some other type of crude? I can not accept that Oman 1M should be so extremely specific that it from one day to the other is worth $15 more than all other types of crude? Something is strange here or I am extremly ignorant or maybe both...
I'm not sure I fully understand this, but it looks like Oman has its own way of selling its oil.
quote:
Official crude oil prices in Oman are set by the Ministry of Oil and Gas (MOG), through a unit directly controlled by the minister, Dr. Mohammed Al Romhi. Since the beginning of 1985, a panel of experts has been setting crude prices on a monthly basis, in accordance with a spot market related formula adjusted retroactively to spot transactions during the previous month.
Unlike its OPEC neighbours, the MOG allows Oman to trade on the spot market. The crude is a marker, together with Dubai, for east of Suez exports from Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and others. This marker is called Dubai/Oman price average. The MOG is yet to become an active participant in the spot market and turn its main export crude into an official marker.
link:
http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-712243/OMAN-Omani-Oil-Pricing.ht...
So doesn't this mean Oman has moved their spot price above the market when in the past it has been below the market? Are they betting/saying/predicting that prices will continue to move up?
Maybe they now realize the true value of their oil. Maybe they read TOD!
I think the article on top, and more regular MSM coverage, is a rewarding result of TOD staff efforts to get the message across. All the experts' input makes it quite credible.
Based on research he did during Super Bowl weekend, Matt Simmons believes that "all the great oil fields of the Middle East" are set up to go into a "North Sea tailspin soon". In the interview, Simmons said this could begin in the next few months. The interview was conducted on February 24.
This may not be what is currently driving up prices, but it's something to keep in mind.
The Fading Twilight of Oil Part 1
The Fading Twilight of Oil Part 2
I just noticed that part 2 is available to subscribers only. This must have recently changed, because I was able to download it for free a couple months ago.
If Simmons is right about the ME fields going into a tailspin, then we are headed for big time *PANIC*. Nobody's ready for a fast collapse in oil production.
Well maybe not ready but I'd at least not be surprised.
Nobody's ready for a slow collapse either.
Ummm...I would like to say this to the Peak Oil Fairy out there that is making the WTI price (and others) skyrocket right now...OK, we all get it...it's real.
Please..can you just take a break from these daily crude and gasoline price records...let us catch our breath.
Man alive and holy Shiite...Bloomberg is showing 134.810 right now for WTI...what the heck will the rest of this week bring before the driving insanity of USA Memorial Day weekend and the kickoff to summer?
what the heck will the rest of this week bring before the driving insanity of USA Memorial Day weekend and the kickoff to summer?
A rising Greek Chorus accusing oil firms of price gouging?
(I'm SO looking forward to more people blaming
price gouging/speculatorsworking Capitalists making a profit)I think I definitely picked the right time to start walking to work.
Actually, 99% of the world is not ready for anything but an exponential increase into infinity.
WT, did you or anyone else notice the LARGE splash you made in today's UrbanSurvival?
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm
Export Land Model is starting to get traction.
Also, John Mauldin stole your ELM title and didn't even mention you.
A few people should email him and explain where the term came from.
What the Export Land Model Means for Energy Prices
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10311.htm
John Maudlin piece leads on to an article by David Galland which fully credits wt and talks extensively about his work.
Mine sez...
What the Export Land Model Means for Energy Prices
By David Galland,
Managing Director
Casey Research - Casey Energy Speculator
Jeffrey Brown is someone you should know. That's because he can help you understand today's high energy prices and that, as an investor, can make you a lot of money.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/arch......
Sorry, My mistake.
westexas the investment consultant? ELM can earn you money. ELP can provide for living.
To clarify slightly, I agreed to do an interview with Casey Research, which they put into their investment newsletter.
WT...you're a hot commodity...I wonder if your future contracts are in contango?
I had a long chat with George Ure yesterday. Like a lot of people, he was looking for an explanation for the recent rapid increase in oil prices. I think that we are looking at something like the following annual trend in total net oil exports: -2%, -4%, -6%, -8%, -10%. . .
As soon as we get a period of stability, where price equalizes supply & demand, we will get a sharper net export decline rate, requiring an accelerating price increase in order to balance supply & demand--especially as forced energy conservation moves up the food chain.
Wherever we are headed and whatever the consequences, IMO this is what is driving the price of oil up.
Doesn't Oman have access to the Indian Ocean outside the Strait of Hormuz? Should the Strait be closed in the event of some "interesting times", wouldn't Oman still be able to deliver oil to customers? Their LNG plant is on the Indian Ocean too, as I recall.
E. Swanson
Oman's facilities are around the corner from the Straight of Hormuz, but still within easy range of a Silkworm or Sunburn missile - their stuff is about as far down the coast from the narrows as Dubai is going the other direction into the Gulf itself. I guess in theory this would be easier to patrol as there would be less small boat traffic, unlike the Gulf itself.
I get the feeling the experts on here seem to think there is a mistake on the Oman 1M oil price.
If it is not a mistake, is that the first bit of S**t hitting the fan?
This is a misprint (error of some sort), nuff speculations. No oil-grade takes off like this whatsoever.. If it was real though, it's just a way to say "we will not sell you our oil"
Oman is just nearby Dubai, which in turn has always been rated a better oil-grade to that from Oman ..... except from this morning that is. Cheer up!
I just noticed that Dubai has not opened today, they are still posting yesterday's price. So don't cheer up just yet. It is late afternoon in Dubai, that price should have been posted by now.
Strange no news media has picked this up? It is an extreme anomaly. :-/
That's true, maybe it's just pure coincidence that MSN which is reasonably main stream media had this article for it's readers to ponder.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/SavingandDebt/SaveonaCar/WhatIfGasC...
What if gas cost $10 a gallon?
By Shirley Skeel
Editor's note: This is one in an occasional series of financial what-ifs.
Yeah, right!
On the Oman price bump could this be an example of hoarding? Seems like the price is far enough above SPOT to discourage purchase.
Hmmm.... $140/bbl appears to have been breached. Time for another poll? ;o)
-best,
Wolf
PS Okay, okay, it's not WTI.
Soon enough graywulffe, soon enough I fear... :|
WTI just passed $134. At this rate $143.69 will seem a bargain soon.