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20 comments on Peak oil hits new heights
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20 comments on Peak oil hits new heights
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So Downes would consider TODers to be "outside elements" would he?
- I suppose we should lug in a few lumps of that oil shale from the backyard for him while we're out there, and see what he makes of it! ;-)
Actually it's not completely clear what Downes' credentials are to be pontificating on energy supply. He has a macroeconomics background and some involvement in Greenhouse Gas modelling. (http://www.thecie.com/person.asp?pID=1052) but he doesn't seem to have made any other public statements about Peak Oil. (I did a little search to try and see if he has been backsliding like other economists, to get to his rather unusual 2020-2030 peak date. - Or is he basing his calculations on the date that his Commonwealth Government Super spits out from the Future Fund? ;-)
- Gee I hope the Feds invested the Future Fund in Woodside not Qantas!)
Well - pseudonymous bloggers do have their work cut out for them to be taken seriously.
The various ASPO organisations are a little harder to dismiss so easily, especially when their forecasts (at least in some cases) are proving a lot more accurate than those of the old school industry mouthpieces.
As for the Future Fund, I imagine it would be index linked - so Woodside (and the big miners, including the coal ones) will make up a lot more of it than Qantas.
Actually the weighting of the Future Fund seems rather odd.
Back in January they were congratulating themselves for staying in cash...
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,24897,23260388-643,00.html
... which was not a bad call, but I wonder if they got in at the bottom of the market in March? For anybody who was PO aware, BHP at $35 was a snack.
Also they have a LOT of Telstra: $9B compared to $5B for the rest of the Oz market, $8B of International shares and $38B of cash (bonds actually, they don't say whose, but presumably they're also subject to bond-pricing losses as interest rates tick up.)
Their Offshore/Onshore balance also seems pretty risky, given that PO is likely to be crueller to offshore markets than it is likely to be for Oz, with our resource weighting...