The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand | Future Scenarios: Mapping the Cultural Implications of Peak Oil and Climate Change

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TheTransition on May 27, 2008 - 2:49am

A new evaluation of the net energy return of gas production in North America using a methodology developed by Cleverland and Costanza suggests net energy return is in the process of a collapse so severe that gas production in Canada will effectively fall to almost nothing by 2014 and that similar results apply to US production.

GailTheActuary ran a piece on the TheOilDrum not long ago showing flat or growing NatGas production in North America over the next 15 years via unconventional production, particularly "Tight Gas".

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doctorbob on May 27, 2008 - 4:15am

The reference Holmgren gives for this view of declining North american gas ERoEI is http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3673, a guest article by Jon Friese, posted by Nate Hagens on 27 Feb this year. Friese's conclusion: "The natural gas industry has clearly been mounting a heroic effort to keep natural gas production on plateau in North America. This effort has raised costs dramatically. The EROI of Canadian production shows a rapid decline. Drilling statistics suggest a similar EROI decline is happening in the US. The falling EROI makes it impossible for natural gas production to maintain both low costs and current levels of production. It is clear that most of the reserves in the official forecast will never be developed."

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