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48 comments on Report on First General Assembly of ASPO Switzerland, May 24th 2008, University of Basel
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48 comments on Report on First General Assembly of ASPO Switzerland, May 24th 2008, University of Basel
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Of course ... as long as the food exporting nations still are able to produce a surplus that they are willing to sell.
Food shortage will not become a problem immediately here in Switzerland, because there is more elasticity in food production than in energy production. When the times get harder and people have less money, they'll reduce their consumption of meat and turn to eating more of the cheaper food items, like potatoes and bread.
As the demand for meat shrinks, the sizes of the herds will get reduced, and more vegetables will be produced instead, thereby increasing the ability to feed more people.
I hope it will never come to racist pogroms, but people aren't rational. Whereas each individual person is open to logic arguments, masses rarely are. In times of hardship, it is natural for humans to turn around and look for a culprit to blame. The Swiss are no better than other people in terms of xenophobic tendencies.
It may be neither "useful" nor "rational," but in times of hardship, people remember their roots. National identities become stronger, not weaker in such situations.
This may have negative consequences (like in the case of racist pogroms), but it is not purely negative. It gets neighbors to band together and help each other out.
In other words, as long as there's no war, revolution or general societal breakdown in Europe...
Capitalism can create a surplus at arbitrary production levels by starving the locals and history is replete with cases of famine-striken countries exporting food.
In any case, we seem to agree on the bottom line: that the viability of Switzerland as we know it is being decided abroad.
There has indeed been a relationship between the size of the herds and the availability of cheap grain for import in the past. The way I see it, it's more of a supply story than a demand story though.
It's only one of the things that could happen. I noticed some comparisons with WWII in this thread and they're somewhat valid but look at what happened in WWI with the general strike!
There's no such thing as a nation of neighbors.
In any case, what we face is an economic problem. Whatever people end up identifying with, these feeling are not convertible into wheat bushels... international trade is what's going to make these bushels happen.