why would there not be an increase in energy production? you use solar to to MAKE solar. there is your energy production increase. there is also DIY energy production that I think at some point people will take up.

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/06/sixty_six_bottl.php

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/04/pop_can_solar_p.php

What are you saying? we can't truly make solar with solar yet or maybe ever..

Right, what I am saying is even if we can manufacture solar panels using solar panels, we can't transport them or mine the material to make them without solar power..

we can't transport them or mine the material to make them without solar power..

I don't follow.

I am saying that if we can manufacture solar power with solar power, we would also have to mine the materials ect and transport them using solar power, or else your not truly using solar power. We can't get away from fossil fuels like one would think.

You seem to keep passing over nuclear.
The world is not going to be all solar for a long time, if ever.
Or are you looking at theoretical solutions to problems we might have thousands of years in the future?

The world is not going to be all solar for a long time, if ever.

DaveMart - the world *IS* Solar.

Coal, oil, wind, water - all expressions of energy from sol. (ok, ok. Wind also has a spinning globe effect.)

No matter what the source of energy, the energy conversion capital equipment must produce enough excess useful energy above consumption needs to be self-sustaining. Since fossil fuels are such high-quality sources with relatively cheap conversion capital (including refining and transport) they have been self-sustaining. The problem is they are not renewable, hence peak oil, etc. In order to expand energy production you need excess energy to mine, form, and construct the conversion capital (not to mention maintenance). These are the questions we need to answer about any proposed alternative energy production technology. Is the conversion capital self-sustaining, or does it need subsidization? If the latter, it probably isn't a good choice.

George

we would also have to mine the materials ect and transport them using solar power

electric vehicles charged from solar panels.

Where can I buy one of those?

The development of fossil fuel technologies in the 18th and 19th centuries was initiated through the use of biomass energy (a relatively inefficient form of solar energy) mostly in the form of food for workers and animals. With 21st century knowledge even more efficient solar energy utilization methods can be used to grow a solar based economy. Concentrated solar thermal can be used directly to melt metals and glass in order to make parts for more CSP systems.

We could eliminate the requirement for biomass consumption by downloading our conciousness-es into solar powered android bodies and giant orbital solar reflectors would beam sunshine down upon us 24 hrs a day. Our positronic brains would be much faster so we would need to learn Dolphin to speak to each other.

This technology is only 5 years away, perhaps 10.

I love it!!! Where do I sign up? Can our pets become androids too?

Experimenting with brain downloads is Educational and Entertaining.

It's EduTainment!

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/freeabs_all.jsp?arnumber=4107853

http://www.mcon.org/

Learn Dolphin here

http://www.speakdolphin.com/

LOL @ the peace flag photo...

thomas deplume -

As you probably know, many here at TOD hold the view that we can't get from Here to There because we are presently dependent upon a dying technology, i.e., the burning of fossil fuels to produce useful work. They say that we can't go solar, wind, etc. in a big way because a significant amount of fossil fuel is required to create the infrastructure for such systems.

I say that this view is sorely off base. If one studies the history of technology, one sees that new technologies don't just suddenly snap into being like spring flowers. Rather, they are generally bootstrapped and gradually carried into being by the older technologies, of which they gradually displace.

Much horsepower (of the kind with hooves) had been used to bring the steam engine into being, and much fossil fuel technology was required to bring nuclear energy into being. One builds on the other, hopefully in not too wrenching of a way.

One of my favorite little examples of this sort of thing is that of the Japanese Zero fighter plane of WW II. The Japanese got into the aeronautics game quite late, but they were amazingly quick learners. Contrary to blatant racist views to the contrary, they had mastered the state of the art of aeronautical engineer and were good flyers. Their Zero fighter was developed a year or so prior to Pearl Harbor under great secrecy. At the time it was arguable the best fighter plane in the world. However, I read that when they took the first prototype Zero from its hanger to the test field, they had to tow it by horse-drawn wagons because trucks were in such short supply in Japan. So here we had 18th-Century technology helping to bring 20th-Century technolgy into being.

That's the way things usually work. As such, I think the best possible use of our dwindling fossil fuel reserves is to create a sustainable energy infrastructure. Sort of like towing a Zero fighter plane with a horse.

Much horsepower (of the kind with hooves) had been used to bring the steam engine into being, and much fossil fuel technology was required to bring nuclear energy into being.

True, but we had not hit "peak horse" or peak oil respectively at the times that those technologies emerged.

Exactly, and while what Joule says is theoretically possible, if the downside slope is too steep, or causes too much social unrest that the infrastructure can't be built, then what? I can easily imagine a scenario where the rich bunker off and continue to use oil the way we waste it today, not building that solar / wind / whatever energy infrastructure for the next generation. The majority of the planet could be left to fend for itself. Need some real world examples of that? Look at how poor nations that can only afford a little oil use it. IN many many countries, it is used by a very few rich and the army, while the vast majority of the population get none and live in poverty. This could very easily be the case. We need a plan B.

We have a built infrastructure problem. Even if we could suddenly make solar powered vehicles of all types, all of our current vehicles would lose most of their value - become "stranded assets". If we somehow had a cheap attachment to our existing cars and trucks that allowed them to run on solar power, we would be a whole lot better off--but no one even suggests this may be possible.

I give cars and trucks as an example. We would really need ways of transforming other parts of the economy to run on solar power also--all very cheaply.

Gail - I want to thank-you for posting this about the Dmitry Orlov book. I ordered it this morning on-line.

I have watched a presentation that you gave on Peak Oil (on-line I don't have the link) and I was very impressed. I have just begun giving peak oil presentations and I want to ask you about giving peak oil presentations to high school senoirs. Do you think that's too young?

Joe

I don't know how old high school seniors are in America, but here in Britain a presentation aimed at 16-18 year olds would be great! I'm 16 and have a good understanding of peak oil and have already made at least 4 people aware, so the answer to your question is no, it's not too young.

Hell no. I'm doing a peak oil presentation to 5 year olds this coming week. It will be about soil - healthy soil, sick soil, what grows in healthy and sick soil. Or doesn't.

Of course, 5 year olds come with parents attached. Doubleplus good.

cfm in Gray, ME, Milliways

With the amount Peak Oil is now being discussed in the media, it is likely that they are going to start hearing about it one way or another. If you can make a presentation to them, that would be good.

Hey - I am working on a set of presentations for exactly this purpose (will be uploaded to Apocollapse.com when I switch that on)... but I'd love input and feedback and ideas - more brains better than fewer... i am emailable (address in my personal details on here) if anyone is interested in shared work in this regard

Joe -- Go for it!

I just did a presentation for my son and his peers in a fifth-sixth grade classroom. These 11 and 12 year-old students really want to talk about the world they are growing up to live in.

My presentation included rides in the bed of my Zap Xebra electric truck, and rides on some inexpensive electric scooters. Most of these kids have already gotten rides on my pedicab or cargo trike. (Those are now sold and I am building up another pedal machine -- a pedicab/cargo trike combo.)

We talked at length about ecological footprint, over-consumption, mis-consumption, overpopulation, resource depletion (especially petroleum and water), and resource war.

Believe me, kids today do not get enough healthy discussion with adults about reality!!!

The students I've spoken with really wanted to keep going. One of my son's former teachers grabbed me by the arm playfully, but said quite seriously "I wish I still had a child of yours in my class!" as I tend to provide plenty of fodder for classroom discussion.

I encouraged the students to take the discussion home as well -- and armed them with a few websites and published material to discuss with their parents.

Go for it, Joe.

Cars depreciate so rapidly that they are pretty valueless after 5 years anyway.
The exception to this would be electric cars which cost very little on maintenance and last many years.

If 5 year old cars are valueless just try buying one for less than $5,000. For the majority of American families 5 year old cars are unaffordable.

It serves me right for commenting on another market.
Still, $5k is a fraction of the new price, so for the original buyer, who gets new cars, he has lost most of his money.
Certainly that is the way it works in the UK.

EDIT: to add addenda:

I am trying to make the point that to car manufacturers it is the new buyer that counts, and that if they keep the car for the average of 4-5 years then they have already lost most of the value of their purchase.

Except that that five year old electric car needs to have its batteries replaced.

Cost?

$6000 (today, never mind a peak oil world). That's not cheap maintenance.

We have no need to replace vehicles at all; cars, trucks, light rail and even bicycles are now obsolete.

Star Trek type teleportation is here, Yay!

http://www.physorg.com/news102681027.html

only 5 years away, apparently.

perhaps 10.

um... Heisenberg uncertainty principle?

Not an issue as the principle uses quantum entanglement, no measurements are made on the particles.

We can use Zero Point energy to power the teleport device, we just need to work out how to shield the proton from nuclear forces and Bingo! Zero carbon ( as a nod to AGW ), Free, Limitless Power!

5 years away apparently, perhaps 10.

Anyway, if I'm going to wish-upon-a-star for a magic-pixie technofix for PO I'm going to pick a cool one.

We have a built infrastructure problem. Even if we could suddenly make solar powered vehicles of all types, all of our current vehicles would lose most of their value - become "stranded assets".

cars could be converted to electric cars and the remaining parts sold or the cars scraped.

I am newly playing the electric car conversion game and the unequivocal advice I have been receiving is to "start with a lightweight, standard transmission" car. Many other types of cars and trucks, though entirely possible to be converted, are too heavy to provide much range. The extra batteries needed add more expense, too.

Perhaps these batteries, when available, will provide a good balance between performance and price:
www.fireflyenergy.com

I suspect we will have a lot of scrap metal soon. I've been pondering how to melt it and use it locally rather than having it dismantled and sent somewhere else. My initial research seems to indicate that massive amounts of energy are required to melt it, up until now available primarily from fossil sources.

Yeah, steel melts at 2500 degrees or more, depending on the alloy. How would you get that temp without fossil fuels? That's a pretty big bonfire...

Gail -

Unfortunately, the retrofitting of almost anything is generally fraught with all sorts of serious problems and compromises and usually turns out to be more expensive and troublesome than starting from scratch. (Think of the cost of adding a major addition unto your house as opposed to the cost of buying a house big enough to begin with.) I can hardly think of a more hopeless technical exercise than trying to retrofit existing ICE cars to run on solar power. Any even halfway viable solar-powered car has to be ultra light, slow, and purpose designed.

The best thing would be to let the old fleet of ICE vehicles to die a slow but merciful death, whilst at the same time vigorously promoting vehicles tied to various forms of alternative energy. Various financial incentives could speed up the process greatly.

I tend to think that the current fleet of SUVs will eventually wind up being used as de facto pickup trucks for various contractors, which is about the only legitimate use of such large vehicles.

Don't forget: during the mid to late 1970s the back rows of used car lots were filled will all sorts of muscle cars that the dealer could hardly give away (today the finer specimens in pristine conditions command six-figure prices). So, in many respects the market is pretty efficient in getting rid of unwanted and/or obsolete technology. But one has to give it time, something which we don't have a hell of a lot of.

Most of the compacts and subcompacts could be converted to EVs, which could be recharged with solar.

A fair number of the pickups and SUVs might be kept running for quite a while with WWII-era "producer gas" devices. This would be feasible for local travel, at least.

If we somehow had a cheap attachment to our existing cars and trucks that allowed them to run on solar power, we would be a whole lot better off--but no one even suggests this may be possible.

What about the hybrid conversion kits we've already started to see like the Poulsen hybrid? I don't know how well these work now but there is probably great scope for improvement in these. Add this to the work ppl are doing with things like the Solar Prius project and converting cars to solar-electric doesn't seem that far fetched does it?

If we somehow had a cheap attachment to our existing cars and trucks that allowed them to run on solar power, we would be a whole lot better off--but no one even suggests this may be possible.

Isn't the issue that sunlight is too diffuse an energy source to allow cars to run on solar? Even if the roof and hood were covered with highly efficient solar cells that charged battery packs, the amount of energy you collected from them would at most allow you to drive a few miles per day, even in Arizona. If you're charging from PVs on the roof of your house, that's a different story. I'm still waiting to see how scalable / cheap Nanosolar's non-silicon PV panels will be.