Its hard to feel sorry for a new SUV owner complaining about $4 gallon gasoline when he is still paying much more on payments, insurance and depreciation, but easy to understand. Now at $12 a gallon, that same owner may well stop complaining and sell it or convert to CNG or electric or buy an older used high mpg vehicle. Of course some SUV owners don't drive very big distances(mainly to and from school/stores) so will just complain even at $12 a gallon gasoline until the next vehicle purchase.

http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-30851

Couldn't agree more. I just did my small part by posting a graphic, I recently created, on CNN. They had people post pictures of their SUV's and defend their reasons for driving them forever...I of course had a different take.

And don't forget wealthier people can simply buy a second or third more efficient vehicle for driving around, keeping the SUV for when needed. I've been seeing some of that where I live. High gas prices don't bother them. It's the poorer folks who get screwed because they can't afford a shiny new car every couple of years.

Rich people will always have a way to do things that mere mortals do not. Nothing changes in that respect.

Poor, however, are not directly hit by rising gas prices. Really poor do NOT drive to begin with (well may be they do in USA, but not in the rest of the world). Poor driving and being hit directly by rising gas prices is a myth, based on the assumption that poor drive. Poor are mostly hit through secondary effects through the rise in food prices and general inflation.

That leaves the middle-class. Us. The big consuming masses.

We're rightly hit by rising oil prices and we are unlikely to change our ways unless constrained by price and availability.

My premise for a while has been that the very nature of forced energy conservation requires an accelerating rate of increase in oil prices.

I am of course assuming an accelerating net oil export decline rate. Let's take all consumers in all oil importing countries and break them into five groups, ranked by income, from lowest to highest. At the bottom of the bottom quintile, we have a poor Third World consumer. At the top of the top quintile, we have Bill Gates,

Each successively higher quintile has vastly more purchasing power than the lower quintile, and energy expenditures as a percentage of incomes tend to decline as we move up the food chain, and each higher quintile has a lot more discretionary spending that can be shifted to non-discretionary food & energy spending, as food & energy prices increase.

This would seem to suggest a requirement for an accelerating rate of increase in oil prices in order to balance demand against an accelerating net export decline rate.

westexas

SamuM said:

Some major exporters have publicly announced they will keep some oil 'in the ground for future generations' (ref: KSA)

Does this information is taken in account in the ELM? In what way this can change the oil export decline rate?
Taken this in consideration and supposing that Peakoil hits MSM worldwide and that the public opinion of those exporting countries demand conservation of oil reserves (for instances, the winter in Russia and Norway is quite cold), the 2031 zero oil net export prevision can take place much sooner.

MetaPico

I made the same observation the other day -for example Jeffs ELM model predicts Norway and Russia to goto0 ~2023 but IMO once the 'cat is out the bag' and the energy crisis is well underway these countries will be forced towards Resource Nationalism well before this date.

The question is at which point between now and 0 NET exports do they start to do something we won't like one little bit?

Nick.

My own expectation for the US is that gas will eventually be rationed using a two tier price system: Level 1 - Say gas @$6.00/gallon with a limit of 10 gallons per licensed driver per week. And, Level 2 - gas @$9/gallon with unlimited purchases allowed.

To me, this might make both the middle and lower classes happy since their gas is "subsidized" in price while allowing the rich to have all the gas they want. Naturally, there would also be a trading system to allow unused subsidized gas credits to be traded.

Todd

Dec12th 2015, News just in: Black Market traded gas futures have just gone into Contango!