246 comments on DrumBeat: June 1, 2008
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246 comments on DrumBeat: June 1, 2008
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Do the official organizations calculate net exports for the world? I can't find it
This attempt used AnalyzeFirst's list of countries and then I found a couple more exporters... East Timor & Tunisia
The Energy Information Administration defines net exports as production minus consumption.
Thus it can be calculated for the world quite easily by subtracting the eia consumption spreadsheet from the production one. These are thoughtfully set up so that individual cells correspond. For instance.... the stat for Nigeria production 1991 is in the same cell (different spreadsheet) as Nigerian 1991 consumption. Excel takes care of the rest (with twiddling)
The two spreadsheets are..
Total Oil Supply: All Countries, Most Recent Annual Estimates, 1980-2007
found here
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilproduction.html
and
Total Petroleum Consumption: All Countries, Total OECD, and World Total, Most Recent Annual Estimates, 1980-2007
found here
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilconsumption.html
But data for 2007 is not complete and must be tracked down for individual countries here.. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/index.cfm
Many of the stats for 2007 are just eia forecasts.
If you find errors/omissions, please mention
Very nice data crunch!
Thanks for compiling this. Several points.
Note the slow, but accelerating, decline rate in net oil exports.
The top five account for about half of net oil exports by volume.
We have seen a top five decline of 1.7 mbpd from 2005, but an overall total decline of 1.5 mbpd. So the bottom half by volume (39 net oil exporters) offset part of the decline from the top half. However, many bottom half net exporters are showing pretty sharp declines, e.g., Venezuela & Mexico.
Again, our middle case is that the top five approach zero around 2031. My guess is that total world net oil exports in 2031 will have dropped by at least 75% from the 2005 peak.
And again, IMO this is the explanation for increasing oil prices, i.e, an accelerating net export decline rate requires an accelerating rate of increase in oil prices, in order to balance supply & demand. As they say, this is not exactly rocket science.
BTW, it looks like Saudi Arabia, in 2008, will exceed their 2007 net export level, but remain below their 2005 rate. However, it's also likely that any 2008 increase in Saudi net oil exports will be offset by Russian declines. Our middle case is that Russia approaches zero net oil exports in about 16 years.
westexas, does your model take account of the impact on net exporters of a general recognition of peak oil, coupled with a global depression?
My analysis suggests that these two effects will dominate the exports race to the bottom. When the fragile nature of oil production is generally known I expect a national push to conserve production to meet only internal demand - "keep our oil for our children".
At the same time I expect a dramatic swing into depression, which will impact non-oil exports from those countries, the economies, and thus the desire to earn some foreign currency to keep the economy afloat. Depression should also cut demand, potentially depressing prices (temporarily).
The interplay of those forces seems to be the main determining factor for future exports curve shape and thus the path the world takes. Wish I could determine which force will win with any certainty.
Scenario Conserve suggests production will be in general cut back to cut exports to zero much faster than algebra would suggest.
Scenario BAU suggests exports are kept high to keep economies healthy, against the wishes of large parts of the population.
Scenario Power Block suggests oil exports will be used to cement new power blocks, both to put oil producers in charge and to protect their assets. Oil is no longer freely traded.
Your thoughts?
From our top five paper:
http://www.energybulletin.net/38948.html
So, the only real question seems to be how soon we see a severe economic contraction.
We're in the demand destruction phase right now. Historically, once demand is destroyed -- not just constrained -- it takes a while to bounce back. US demand, year on year, in April was down 900,000 barrels per day. That's a pretty steep decline.
Once US consumption is squashed by harder times, you end up with knock-ons to India and China which would, likely, reduce oil demand there. That leaves oil producing countries to take up the demand slack. Brazil, Russia, and the Middle East, mainly.
So, IMO, looks like we're in a race between depletion plus your own export decline model and demand destruction which seems to be a growing force in the world.
I wouldn't bet on rapidly falling prices, though. The supply situation looks pretty bad with world consumption beating production in 16 out of the last 18 months (EIA figures). So, on a darker note, demand destruction also races depletion + ELM to beat shortages which, looking at the current, situation seem a possibility within 2 years.
Per the latest weekly EIA report, year to date products demanded is down 450,000 bpd. This figure does include some revisions.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_pe...
How do you get a 900,000 bpd drop?
My apologies, looking over my notes and back to sources, I made a mistake and would like to post a retraction. Thanks for pointing this out.
According to EIA figures, year on year IMPORTS were down 780,000 barrels per day in April.
The import figures were:
Jan 07 Jan 08
12.14mbpd 11.87 mbpd (- .27 mbpd)
Feb 07 Feb 08
10.79 10.53 (- .26 mbpd)
Mar 07 Mar 08
12.63 11.36 (- 1.27 mbpd)
Apr 07 Apr 08
12.58 11.76 (- .78 mbpd)
Still represents a massive decline and, according to the EIA, ethanol production is displacing a decent volume of imports which probably accounts for some portion of the difference.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/STEO_Query/steotables.cfm?tableNumber=9&...
So now it becomes a curiosity. We've seen demand destruction over 450,000 bpd year on year. Increased ethanol production and it looks like we take the difference in oil stocks -- which have been inching down. Not pretty and a much worse demand picture than I realized, even on the US side. Damn, what a little error in notes can do!
I dunno- US year on year demand down 450 000 b/day ? or 780 000 b/day ? ..... anyways down it is !
frankly spoken Robert, your celebrated "ethanol-amount"....energywise, was just viped away in the span of one year only !
Actually 3 to 5 years of added "ethanol energy" was viped away during last year, as your 550 000 ethanol barrels are in real terms just some 125 000 added.
Ethanol is a scam ! Adding nothing of real value to the greater society .
It is blurring things though...
Imports are down 780,000 bpd. Demand is down 450,000 bpd. So the difference was supplied domestically or taken in stock draws. With demand falling and ethanol stocks increasing, we supply more of our liquid fuel, by percent, domestically.
So given these facts your point is, well, pointless. And why are you shouting? Is this any way to hold a rational discussion?
(Furthermore, does anyone know this guy and why does he have a lisp?)
The idea that you Robert don't see my point, doesn't make it pointless.
Think of it more like : You don't understand it or it's difficult for you-
I see it as my genetic duty to go after people who spread bad messages - you spread bad messages Robert !
But in reading a reply of yours up-thread, you make me puzzled b/c you are inconsistent in your thinking... . a touch of cognitive dissonance perhaps?
So tell me Robert, are you famous here on TOD with your perfect English and all those splendid thoughts of yours ?
One thing that is key I think is to track our net imports with respect to world net exports
So far this year US net imports are down 5.9% from last year
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_pe...
Perhaps we are ahead of the curve? :)
I have a new term for TOD Land: NOEOCD--Net Oil Export Obsessive Compulsive Disorder. Unfortunately, it's contagious.
My focus du jour is on Venezuela & Mexico (V&M). The most recently monthly data that I have seen, through March, show a six month combined net export annual decline rate to the US of 32%/year. And the most recent weekly crude oil imports into the Gulf Coast (from all sources) look pretty bad.
But if our net imports are falling faster than world net exports I think that is a sign that the US is adjusting.... though painfully
Helps with world prices too
But of course many net importers are not declining yet. Growing in fact still for a while
If each net importer was declining as fast as net exporters (total) were declining, I dont think there would be a price problem
Data: I don't think the "adjusting" term is accurate-USA gasoline expenditures are way up YOY- a true adjustment would imply a real dollar decrease in gas expenditures YOY. What is actually happening, contrary to the MSM spin, is that the USA consumer/suburbanite is going broke.
5.9% yoy decline in net imports is a tough row to hoe for sure . World net exports are declining at only 2% plus
Right now the US is bearing the lion share of the world net export decline
Demand destruction.
The demand is still there-it is the cash that is unavailable. True "adjusting" of the American economy would be gasoline expenditures consuming a declining % of income. The current situation is like describing someone's new healthy diet plan (in reality they don't have the cash for the calorie total anymore).
"The demand is still there-it is the cash that is unavailable."
If some people are unable to afford oil or the services oil provides because it is priced out of their reach, that percentage of demand has been constrained or destroyed by high prices. If the price fell again, some of those people would be able to buy the oil again, but those who have permanently changed their behavior may never consume the same amount of oil again. If, the high price of oil forces people to buy more efficient cars (increased small car and hybrid sales) or not to buy a big car (reduced SUV sales) or not to buy a car at all (reduced car sales), then that is demand destruction.
In essence, the market has been altered by high prices so that, overall, people are forced to consume less. So a part of what people demanded previously is now unattainable. Lower sales in the car market and less airline flights, more expensive groceries, less people eating out, less people taking long trips, are all economic signs of demand destruction.
I don't think that you are grasping the key problem about V&M. Venezuela is showing a long term net export decline. Mexico is on the fast track to zero net oil exports.
In 10/07, they accounted for more than 20% of total US imports, and probably more than 40% of imports into the Gulf Coast. It takes something like five days for oil to get from V&M to the Gulf Coast, versus about 30 days from the Persian Gulf. So, we have to redirect declining net oil exports from other sources to the Gulf Coast (taking as much as six times longer to get the oil to the Gulf Coast).
Meanwhile, the last four weeks of crude oil imports into the Gulf Coast (from all sources) have shown quite a steep drop. Things could get interesting this summer.
I think they get interesting next week if the inventory report shows another drop in crude supplies, thus crushing traders hopes that the 8.8 mb drop this past week was caused by bad weather or something. Oil dropped $4 that day after the report came out - I think it's clear many people are betting on a monster build next week.
Even *IF* replacement crude supplies can be procured from the Persian Gulf, the MOL will take quite a bit of oil.
(30 days -5 days) x replacement crude = XX million barrels in floating "in transit storage".
Just the 300,000 barrels that GWB got by begging from KSA will consume 7,500,000 barrels for additional "in transit storage" if used to replace lost V&M production.
And 300,000 b/day is not the problem, in excess of 1 million b/day is.
Alan
change the O and E around, NEO-OCD. That's catchy. :)
I just emailed you Jeff...also Datamunger, we should probably work what you're doing here either in with Jeff's coming post on this or as a post on its own...
Or EO-OCD Exported Oil Obsessive Compulsive Disorder.
We could just show Datamunger's data table as in intro.
don't overestimate the effort required for this...it doesn't take much!
just 2 formulas in Excel...one to subtract consumption from production and one to sum the net exports.
Actually, since looking up individual countries gives you more uptodate data it seems than is in the spreadsheets, you can just do 44 lookups (2 hour's work...if that)
I'm surprised the eia doesn't have this sort of summary. At least I can't find it
Their spreadsheets are set up to make it easy to produce
My cyber sidekick, Khebab, seems to be MIA or on vacation. Would you be interested in generating a chart showing monthly combined net oil exports from Venezuela and Mexico to the US (daily average number) from January, 2005 to March, 2008? BTW, does anyone know if the EIA has more recent data than March for imports by country of origin?
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbblpd...
My email: westexas at aol.com
that's not the point. sometimes it takes someone a) putting the effort in and b) looking at something a different way to facilitate a greater understanding.
I hear that Venezuela's leader doesn't like us very much. Could some of that drop in exports be due to Venezuela shifting exports elsewhere?
He has certainly talked about it, but Venezuela showed more than a 7% total net export decline rate last year, which is a continuation of a long term decline. In any case, we are looking at having to replace a huge chunk of the oil imports to the Gulf Coast that used to come from sources less than a week away. Basically, we are going to have to bid the price up enough to draw crude away from other importers and/or reduce our consumption.
My prediction: it's not if, but when, we hear calls to release oil from the SPR this year because of supply problems on the Gulf Coast.
BTW, Europe is facing its own problems with net export declines from two close net oil exporters--Norway & Russia.
NOAA's predicting 12-16 name storms this year. With the first one popping up Saturday, seems the Atlantic's setting the stage for a rough summer. How many days does a hurricane add to the supply chain?
Hurricane seasonal warnings almost useless, experts say
Um.. The article says the the long range forecasts are not useful for emergency planning.
It doesn't say they aren't useful for predicting the number of storms.
What's your point?
Excellent analysis, as usual, WT.
If anyone needed further convincing that's Venezuela' situation is going downhill fast, we saw on Friday that they increased oil, gasoline, and diesel imports in the first quarter. If they are importing oil, it makes you wonder if things haven't gotten worse even faster than we generally thought (excluding WT!).
Shouldn't the negative figures for Tunisia and Mauritania be set to zero. Assuming you can't have negative exports.
Actually the eia defines negative net exports as net imports and expresses it that way in their tables
I suppose it's like negative growth
When net exports are negative, they are not summed in the table.
hmmm... since when did we start using euphemisms as data :)
If a country is a net importer, then exports are surely zero. Just because the eia or whoever have started to believe their own propaganda, no reason we should.
Just a minor point I know. Well done on producing the data BTW, don't take what I say as criticism :)
(edit) Ah! You edited your post. Ok, I now understand the totals are unaffected by the negative figures, so no problem.
Net imports down for the past four weeks YOY 5.9%. Domestic oil/condensate production dropped 1.8%. Natural gas liquids production dropped .2%. There are some large projects in the GOM nearing completion, but the demand for deepwater rigs is overheating. Declines in shallow GOM crude production, lower 48, and Alaskan crude seem relentless over the long term.
Might also add in a 5.1% reduction in total crude stocks (excl. SPR) YOY. Part of the reduction of imports is due to a drawdown in stockpiles.
Drop in products supplied only 2.1%.
In 2007 the United States was feeling the effects of a huge OPEC production cut that caused a drop in world exports. In my opinion the problem is at least in part due to OPEC supply manipulations. Your ELM calculations might consider the OPEC move affected end of 2006 and most of 2007 world production figures. Not sure of the 2008 data yet.
Reductions in miles driven, canceled vacations, and job losses will contribute to a cut in demand in both the United States and abroad. Read that gasoline was over $9.00 a gallon in France. Bottled water was $3.00 a liter at Charles DeGaul airport earlier this year. The dollar does not get you very far in Europe.
Here's one last graphic...
No I'm not that obsessive..
I didn't count them all .... Microsoft Excel did
Course it's the amount exported, not the number of exporters, that really matters
That's what I used to say, and pretty soon people ask you about the weather and you bring up net oil exports.
What I would like to be able to do is to complete the oil supply chain picture. Focusing on the US and where the oil gets recieved in....Gulf Coast, East Coast, West Coast, and how much crude each refinery takes in , then where each refinery is shipping their petroleum product (most specifically gasoline and diesel).
The EIA has data for refinery production from July 2007. The next data is suppose to be made available in July 2008. I don't know if there is any way to better track this information. Seems we (our government) could to a hell of a lot better tracking this. It would be wonderful to see thison a weekly or montly basis. Perhaps they do track as such. I only see this information published on the EIA site:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/refinery_...
http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/rankings/refineries.htm
Datamunger, thanks for collecting and presenting these data. I've wanted to see these kind of numbers for a while but never found them presented in the compact and readable form that you have done here. Please keep it up.