Ah, yes, but mass transit is not above the laws of economics. In Louisville KY, the local transit authority (TARC Transit Authority of River City) announced that they will raise their rates, and more importantly, begin cutting routes and reduce the number of buses running. Why at their moment of vindication would they do such a thing?

Diesel fuel: Diesel, once considered the cheap, simple, efficient fuel has now become the crème de la crème of motor fuels. Using a dirty source in sulfur ridden distillate elements of crude oil, and attempting to clean it up with a valuable and more prized than ever fuel in natural gas, Diesel now suffers the worst of all possible worlds, being a bi-fuel that is price linked to both crude oil and natural gas. Combine this with the lack of commitment on the part of the U.S. to carry at least a minimal share of the refining load, and Diesel becomes the new Champagne fuel of the crude oil inventory.
The majority of transit buses in the U.S. run on Diesel fuel. There have been discussions of converting some of them to natural gas, and some cities and transit authorities have done so, but that program was based on natural gas prices in the $3.00 to $4.00 per mm/BTU range, $5.00 topside. Ironically, Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) was conceived using the same “plentiful and cheap” natural gas scenario.

So mass transit authorities face a conundrum: Unless the bus is absolutely full of passengers paying as much as can be extracted from them, the cost of the “clean” Diesel fuel they must consume cannot be justified.

This is yet another one of those scenarios that had someone described it to a normal thinking person 5 years ago they would have been met with derision and ridicule. We see once again the weakness of linear thinking.

RC