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93 comments on TOD Local Open Thread: Any Hope of a Buyer's Strike?
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I constantly hear engineers like yourself saying they don't think the electrification of transportation is possible, even in a decade.
Then I see all these media releases about new batteries, new technologies, new fuel sources and I can't help but think one of them has got to take hold.
The lithium ion batteries are a great option, no? Two days ago a fellow TODer pointed me to a company that makes ethanol out of algea secretions, another promising endeavour, they are planning on building a 100,000 gallon a year plant if I remember correctly as a pilot project which can be explanded to a great degree.
With all of our ingenuity behind this, what is your reasoning for the failure of all of these options? (not just the two I mentioned)
Thanks, I look forward to finding this out as it is a question I ask myself daily.
It's a matter of time and money. Replacing the vehicle fleet with electrics is not something that happens over night, nor is it cheap. Batteries are getting better, but go buy a 12V 100 amp-hour lithium ion battery. You'll see why lead-acid batteries are going to be around for a long time. Your algal ethanol plant is so tiny that it isn't worth talking about. 100k barrels/year (rather than gallons) is worth a glance and 100k barrels/day is genuinely interesting, but nothing like that is on the horizon.
Although many options will be put into practice and help mitigate the problem, mitigation does not mean solve.
"I see all these media releases about new batteries, new technologies, new fuel sources and I can't help but think one of them has got to take hold."
They will, it just takes a while. For instance, the Chevy Volt will take another 2 years to start manufacturing, and another 2 years to ramp up to real volumes (100,000 per year). A lot of companies are competing to produce PHEVs (plug-in hybrids) and EVs, but it will take a little while.
It won't take forever to make a difference - 50% of vehicle miles are driven by vehicles less than 6 years old - but it won't be tomorrow.