Here is an Economic Letter from the Dallas Federal Reserve.

This is the first government assessment of EIA's ability to understand the oil market.

As the realities of higher oil prices have sunk in, EIA forecasts have marched steadily upward (Chart 5). The 2004 projection, for example, saw prices relatively flat in the $30 range through 2025. The latest forecast, issued in 2007, anticipates a price decline in upcoming years, with oil settling above $60 for the long haul out to 2030.

Spare capacity was also addressed more realistically.

Mish seems to think Bernanke can't last long. Anyone want to give odds on how long he lasts?

Ask the Bilderberg Group.


Uncle Ben visits the Bilderbergs

However they'll probably respond something like this.

Images scaled down for size from http://cryptome.info/bilderberg08/bilderberg08.htm

Btw, Ilargi argued over at the Automatic Earth that Mish (who he normally respects) has got it wrong on this one.

Ilargi: Rebellion at the Fed? No, Mish doesn’t understand what happens. Which is that the lower ranks are used to bring home the bad news, because Bernanke can’t and won’t. That the regional heads speak out all the time, is a sign that Bernanke holds the reins firmly, not the opposite.

Shhh! The Bilderberg Group doesn't exist, remember? ;)

Bilderberg Luminary To Select Obama's Running Mate

http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/may2008/052308_bilderberg_luminary.htm

Gawd, I hope that's not true. Any chance they pick Ron Paul?

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

Durandal no one, to my knowledge, has ever claimed that the Bilderberg Group doesn't exist. The clame made by conspiracy theory wingnuts is that the Bilderberg Group rules the world.

Bilderberg Group

The Bilderberg Group, Bilderberg conference, or Bilderberg Club is an unofficial annual invitation-only conference of around 130 guests, most of whom are persons of influence in the fields of business, media and politics.

The elite group meets annually at luxury hotels or resorts throughout the world — normally in Europe — and once every four years in the United States or Canada. It has an office in Leiden, South Holland, Netherlands. The 2007 conference took place from May 31 to June 3 at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Istanbul, Turkey. The 2008 conference is taking place from June 5 to June 8 in Chantilly, Virginia, United States.

I guess they met in Virginia this year to give directions to all the world's leaders for the next 12 months. Oh yea, the Bilderberg Group is behind all this Peak Oil nonsense also. They are being paid by oil producers to drive up the price of oil. I mean hell, if they control the world then they sure as hell control the oil supply and the price of oil....Right?

Ron Patterson

Conspiracy or not don't you think it strange how little press it gets.

Castrated U.S. Media Remains Obediently Silent On Bilderberg

The mainstream American corporate press has once again proven itself to be no better than the state controlled media in places like Communist China or Zimbabwe, by steadfastly refusing to print even a mention of over a hundred global power brokers meeting in secret to discuss the future of the planet.

...David Rockefeller, Henry Kissinger, the secretary general of NATO, CEO’s of the world’s biggest corporations, U.S. politicians and European royalty were all there in Chantilly, but the U.S. media failed to show and did not even mention that the meeting was taking place, despite Bilderberg themselves issuing a press release!

A press release about a missing dog would make a few local newspapers, but a press release about over a hundred of the most powerful people in the world meeting in secret was completely ignored

Note: I'm not a big fan of Alex Jones - he believes Peak Oil was invented by BP and the global elite.

The clame made by conspiracy theory wingnuts is that the Bilderberg Group rules the world.

Which is not at all like the reality that the group has many members that are in the 'leadership/ruling class'. Right?

Now, why is it that Alex Jones is loudest media voice reporting on the event?

But if you don't want to answer my question(s) - how about George Ure's questions?

Rumors that Obama and Clinton were both in attendance are somewhat speculative (or are they?) but you'd think that if we had a real working/functional press corp that someone would have the balls to point out that with reported attendees like Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Secretary of State Condi Rice that something more than carefully massaged (sterile) press releases should be issued. Whatever happened to daylight democracy?

Alex is a bit whack in my opinion on a lot of things, but spot on in regards to a bunch of others. He's convinced that a certain fraternal order that I associate with is an evil group hellbent on global domination, and I take exception to that. Of course, his mind on it is that I'm just not filled in on the true details of the group, and I'm brainwashed or some such thing.

Even so, I listen to his radio show once a week or two, as he does a good job of keeping us updated on our loss of civil rights. I think of him for Big Brother as The Automatic Earth is to Financial Collapse. hehe

Alex is a bit whack in my opinion on a lot of things, but spot on in regards to a bunch of others.

Alex looks at the world through a filter of 'people in power lie'. And I can't fault that filter, as, from what I can tell, such a rule is right quite often.

The man makes his living pointing out all the wierd-ness of things like REXX, Adjenda 21, various bits of hardware and buildouts that are gonna put some people in a world of hurt.

He's convinced that a certain fraternal order that I associate with is an evil group hellbent on global domination,

Well, if Alex was up on his rants, he'd had one year to talk about 'old JD Van Hollen being grand master AND attorney general. (Actual active high level policos are rare) If Alex is around in a few election cycles AND JD runs for the job of El Jefe - Alex might have to take some meds to not pop a vessel. The officer line is published - you think he'd unleash his diggers VS the 50 grand lodge lines in the US of A, plus all the other grand lodges that exist.

BUT....

Next time you go your lodge meeting wear one of these:

http://www.warehouse23.com/item.html?id=SJG9002I A few of your brothers will ask 'what group is that' and you can tell 'em its your illumanti pin.

At the grand lodge meeting this year no one asked. Perhaps the word is out about me. :-(

http://www.warehouse23.com/info/eip.html

http://www.warehouse23.com/item.html?id=SJG9002I

So your Subversion Division (purple) I see. I used to have a white one (Field Operations) which I bought in a sci-fi bookshop in Edinburgh about 25 years ago. Or at least I think that's how I got it :-)

So your Subversion Division (purple) I see.

Around these parts, sure. For who's end and what the grand plan is FNORD.

(I at one time had 2 complete sets. Would cycle through them - and 2 people actually asked 'why the different colors?')

Darwinian -

While the Bilderberg Group may not rule the world, I don't think you can deny that the collection of people who attend their little annual backyard barbecue pretty much do, or at least heavily influence what does or does not happen.

So, I guess you think the whole purpose is just so the likes of Henry Kissinger, Dick Chaney, oil company CEOs, et al, can eat some hot dogs together, down a few cool ones, and talk about this year's NASCAR season.

well... yeah

if you ever attend any of these gatherings that are talked about like this, or just talk to some of the people that do, you'll find it's a lot of people who share common interests eating well, chin-wagging and hearing each other's opinions on stuff...

i hear ya

the level of paranoia about these groups is crazy ... Bildeberg, Tri-lateral Commission, Bohemian Grove, etc.

people into train spotting get together every so often... people who collect Beanie Babies get together from time to time

so do rich powerful people - they have shared interests... they probably do deals... but mostly the sit around and chin wag and see what everyone else is hearing and thinking

do the attendees collectively have more influence on world affairs than you and i and our facebook friends list? of course... but that's not the same as secretly controlling the world

if you want to secretly control the world you don't need to do it at a public gathering...

Was there confirmation that Obama and McCain were in attendance?

well i'd hope they would be - i mean someone wanting to be leader of the US should take the opportunity to buttonhole these folks if they're all in one place

again - doesn't mean there's some nefarious plot

Apparently you nor anyone else here has read the Trilateral Commission's report, The Crisis of Democracy. I read it as part of my studies into the nature of the US Empire, and I suggest it be read despite its being 30 years-old. Much information about this group and its report can be gleaned from the web. I suggest this as one of several possible starting points.

An excerpt:

"The report argues that what is needed in the industrial democracies "is a greater degree of moderation in democracy" to overcome the "excess of democracy" of the past decade. "The effective operation of a democratic political system usually requires some measure of apathy and noninvolvement on the part of some individuals and groups." This recommendation recalls the analysis of Third World problems put forth by other political thinkers of the same persuasion, for example, Ithiel Pool (then chairman of the Department of Political Science at MIT), who explained some years ago that in Vietnam, the Congo, and the Dominican Republic, "order depends on somehow compelling newly mobilized strata to return to a measure of passivity and defeatism... At least temporarily the maintenance of order requires a lowering of newly acquired aspirations and levels of political activity." The Trilateral recommendations for the capitalist democracies are an application at home of the theories of "order" developed for subject societies of the Third World."

Hi Responsible,

Good point. And about

re: "...doesn't mean there's some nefarious plot."

Possibilities:

1. Doesn't mean there is a nefarious plot.

2. Doesn't mean there is not a nefarious plot.

3. Doesn't mean there is not a plot and that its contributors share the belief that it's not at all nefarious, but rather benign.

4. Might mean there's some plot and that its contributors choose to avoid questioning the assessment of how nefarious it may be, rather see it as either A) not of a whole (no "it" there), or, B) as the only logical outcome of necessity...

5. Or whatever.

Great stuff undertow.

I was interested in the prediction as I had read following here:

http://www.mmacycles.com/articles/articles/pluto-in-capricorn/

The Sun represents the leader, or chairman, of the FRB. Pluto represents termination of his role or change of his duties in a substantial way, or a major transformation in the institution itself.

Natal Pluto represents the debt structure of the entity. Transiting Pluto in opposition to it might be the awareness that the FRB either does not have the money we thought it had, or its power as an independent and rather secretive institution is being threatened – and maybe successfully.

Why would this happen? Why would there be such substantial changes to the FRB? Probably because the country is in some kind of a crisis, and the political leaders want a scapegoat. Or maybe because things are being revealed about the FRB’s past history that calls into question the reason for its very existence. These revelations may create an outrage. Maybe they pertain to the sub-prime crisis we are now going through or maybe something else entirely different that creates such an outrage, and a demand for stripping its powers.

This was written beginnning of 2008 about 2008 planetyry transits and it seems to be panning out like he predicted. It would be interesting to see if th Fed and or Bernake are washed up this year. Maybe some shadowy rich people who think they are Gods have zippo influence over planetary orbits and can't make reality do what they want just as Bush could not.

I guess the astrologer's view is just as likely to be accurate as that of a certain oil expert whose name begins with a 'Y'.

I asked an astrologer friend last autumn to make a forecast for 'oil' and he muttered darkly about Pluto in Capricorn and said that the excrement would hit the fan in January (correct). His prognosis for the immediate future seems to be very gloomy indeed.

Obviously the EIA and the UK BERR look elsewhere for their rose-tinted information.

BobE

I couldn't help but notice---they're not riding their bicycles there!!! WHYEVER not??

'The latest forecast, issued in 2007, anticipates a price decline in upcoming years, with oil setteling above $60 for the long haul out to 2030'.

Above $60? EIA forecasters get actual pay checks to make such breath taking predictions? Sometimes I believe that all those making predictions of this nature live on another planet and receive data via old tv broadcasts such as 'I love Lucy'. Of course, along with those Lucy broadcasts they would see old commercials, such as Gulf gas stations with smiley faced attendants pumping gas for happy folks for $.29 cents per gallon...you remember, when Gulf was putting a little tiger tail sticking out of the gas lid of autos?

'Above $60 per gallon'??? Obviously the Fed or EIA believe the dollar is going to strengthen to some miraculous level by some miraculous mechanisim.

This is all just more talk by a bunch of azz hats that would be challenged if they attempted to work in one of those old Gulf gas stations. I would bet dollars to donuts that none of them could take a tire off a rim and put a new one on or find the gas cap on a 57 Chevy in less than 10 minutes.

Anyone that takes these clowns seriously needs professional help.

"find the gas cap on a 57 Chevy in less than 10 minutes."

Either the tail fin or license plate?

And I'll never forget 44 cent gasoline being outrageous at our local
Gulf station while drinking peanuts in coke and watching Hot (his name)
repair a 4020 tire. Memories. Thanx.

Mac...gas cap behind drivers side tailfin vertical chrome piece. Yeah, Toms Peanuts, cooked in coconut oil were by far the best when dumped into a coke. :)

Boby...you are right about the tiger tail and Esso. Gulf used twin plastic horse shoes IIRC.

At different times when in hs I worked part time in a Phillips 66, Gulf, Esso and a BP while in Newfoundland. Dad was in the air force and we moved a lot. I always found work to support my motorcycle habit.

Not to be picky but the "tiger in the tank" was Esso which later became Exxon. Slogan was popular in the early to mid-60's.

That explains why Esso gas stations in Canada look exactly like Exxons. ;)

Apparently, Esso was having trouble selling gasoline in Japan. Then, they discovered that the word "esso" was Japanese slang for a car that wouldn't start or that ran poorly (perhaps like "clunker" in English).

So, they hired a marketing firm to find a word that was meaningless in all modern languages - and the word was "Exxon".

Not so sure why "Esso" is still used in Canada. Either:

  1. they forgot about us
  2. nobody here speaks Japanese
  3. we enjoy driving clunkers

I don't think that's true at all.
First of all there are Esso gas stations in Japan.
http://www.self-express.jp/

Second of all wikipedia gives a completely different explanation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exxon

Exxon formally replaced the Esso, Enco, and Humble brands on January 1, 1973, in the USA. The name Esso, pronounced S-O, was a trademark of Standard Oil Company of New Jersey and attracted protests from other Standard Oil spinoffs because of its similarity to the name of the parent company, Standard Oil. As a result, the company was restricted from using Esso in the USA except in those states awarded to it in the 1911 Standard Oil antitrust settlement. In states where the Esso brand was blackballed, the company marketed its gasoline under the Humble or Enco brands. The Humble brand was used at Texas stations for decades as those operations were under the direction of Jersey Standard affiliate, Humble Oil, and in the mid-to-late 1950s expanded to other Southwestern states including New Mexico, Arizona, and Oklahoma.

In 1960, Jersey Standard gained full control of Humble Oil and Refining Company and, through a reorganization of the company and the death of Janrick K. Ragnar, restructured Humble into Jersey's domestic marketing and refining division to sell and market gasoline nationwide under the Esso, Enco, and Humble brands. The Enco brand was introduced by Humble in 1960 at stations in Ohio but was soon blackballed after Standard Oil of Ohio (Sohio) protested that Enco (Humble's acronym for "ENergy COmpany") sounded and looked too much like Esso: an oval logo with blue border and red letters, with the two middle letters the only difference. At that point, the stations in Ohio would be rebranded Humble until the name change to Exxon in 1972.

Third of all, Esso doesn't mean clunker in Japanese.

Thanks for posting the additional info. I didn't think to check Wikipedia before making the post.

The story I posted was told to me by a Japanese friend many years ago.

Esso in the UK revived the tiger.
Esso and the Tiger



The oil crisis of the early 1970s meant that little advertising activity took place at that time. Soon after, Esso decided to explain the company’s pioneering role in the North Sea with a new advertising campaign.

Enter the tiger. This time the real thing. Beautiful footage, specially shot by expert cameramen using animals trained by experienced handlers, breathed new life into the Esso tiger.

"...old tv broadcasts such as 'I love Lucy'."

Or the Dinah Shore show:
"
See the USA
In your Chevrolet
da da da da da da ...
"

Texaco handing out free plastic fireman's hats to kids; everyone else giving away free glassware when you filled up; and those were "full service" gas stations.

The good old days...

This is the critical bit of reasoning behind Brown and Virmani's forecast of lower future prices:

Actual and expected costs of nonconventional resources suggest it might be difficult to sustain oil prices above $70 a barrel. However, the relatively high costs of these nonconventional oil sources could inhibit development because producers fear losses during a price collapse. The production and use of nonconventional resources would also generate more pollution, which could mean conventional oil could command a premium.

What’s the bottom line? Absent supply disruptions, it will be difficult to sustain oil prices above $100 (in 2008 dollars) over the next 10 years.

It appears to be beyond the capacity of some people to imagine that producers may not be able to infinitely expand production at the current price. To such people, only "supply disruptions" (which I take to mean above-ground factors) could possibly limit our ability to pump oil at a favorable price. This is really a staggering, almost incomprehensible blind spot (to me anyway).

The cheapest oil with the best EROI is depleting the fastest. Each new form of unconventional oil we bring online is incrementally more expensive than the last, and has a vastly worse EROI than conventional oil.

According to a 2005 DOE report, the cost per barrel of offshore (not deepwater) oil was just under $70, including exploration costs. It is certainly much higher now, because of inflation, dollar devaluation, and rising energy costs. And yet these geniuses think that it will be hard to sustain oil prices above $70, when a major portion of conventional oil can't be pumped for $70/bbl, let alone unconventional or synthetic oil.

Looking at the newsletter from the Dallas Fed, I noticed that their inflation adjusted graph begins with 1974. They completely miss the price rise after the 1973 OPEC Embargo, ignoring the fact of that first big jump in prices. Further on, they present a graph of inflation adjusted prices beginning in 1860, ignoring the fact that inflation data is rather meaningless over such a long period, given that oil didn't really begin to have a major impact on transportation until after 1900.

Then, they present Chart 2, labeled "Oil Consumption Rises with Income ", which is plotted with logarithmic axes. The fact that the U.S. consumes much more per capita compared with other industrialized nations is lost in this presentation. In this same graph, they claim that Singapore and Luxembourg have higher per capita consumption than the U.S., yet these are not nations in the traditional sense, but city-states. Data for Third World nations, which have substantial production as subsistence farming, likely ignores the value of this production to the individuals doing the farming. These folks are, in actual fact, providing their own needs directly and are less likely to be involved in the money economy, thus their production may not be quantified. To the economist who looks at national production data, their efforts are not going to be counted.

In sum, I suggest that the Dallas Fed is understating the problems we face using careful graphology. They don't even consider the possibility that resources are limited and may be past peak, as they give the EIA projections out to 2025, projections which have been boosted year after year because the previous projections were so far out of line with subsequent market prices.

E. Swanson

Graphology - I like it!

A common practice, I have noticed.

The EIA deals with future oil price much like the investment world. When oil goes to a new level, it's a spike untill it stays there a certain number of months. Then the new level is what it will be forever. Untill it goes to yet another new level. Repeat.

The move to the $100+ level was uninvestible untill just about a month or two ago. Now you see energy related stocks that were priced on $60-$80 oil breaking old (typically 2 or 3 year old) trading patterns because it is settling into many minds that we're probably not going to see the old levels much anymore. The energy stocks were drifting along with the shakey stock market, following the debt induced sell offs, for the first quarter of this year. But they are now breaking away to adjust for oil's new pricing levels that investors no longer view as a spike.