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497 comments on DrumBeat: June 10, 2008

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wehappyfew on June 10, 2008 - 11:54am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The EIA data for March is out, too.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html

-801K total revisions to previous months, March 08 at 85,730kbpd, Feb08 still top month at 85,827kbpd (revised down from 85,921).

The plateau continues with a slight step up for 2008.

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Joseph Palmer on June 10, 2008 - 5:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Query: (to any and all)

Is Feb 08 still the top month if the data is averaged over 6 months?

I ask because I recall that a 6 month average was part of the recognition criteria for peak oil by one geologist (Perhaps Deffeyes?)

J.

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ace on June 11, 2008 - 1:17am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Peak total liquids month is also forecast to be Feb 2008 at 87.3 mbd (IEA includes biofuels, which will probably be revised downwards once the full IEA OMR June Report is released later this month). Peak total liquids year is also forecast to be 2008 at 86.6 mbd.

Colin Campbell has also revised his forecast peak total liquids year to 2008 at 85.3 mbd (excludes biofuels) in his June newsletter.
http://www.aspo-ireland.org/index.cfm?page=viewNewsletterArticle&id=49

Peak crude and condensate (C&C) month is forecast to be Feb 2008 at 74.6 mbd (EIA). Peak C&C year is forecast to be 2008 at 74.2 mbd. However, if there are any supply shortages this year then the peak C&C year might be 2005 at 73.8 mbd.

The charts below have been updated for the recent IEA and EIA data releases.

Supply, Demand and Price to 2012 - click to enlarge

Crude and Condensate Production to 2100 - click to enlarge

Crude and Condensate Production to 2012 - click to enlarge

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Joseph Palmer on June 11, 2008 - 1:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thank you.

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Psudarsanam on June 11, 2008 - 2:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

As per EIA, the world Crude and other liquids production is estimated at 82.5 MBD in the year 2007 as compared to current figure of 74.3 MBD projected in the graph. Isn't the gap between the two figures too high and why?

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ace on June 11, 2008 - 7:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

An example might help to answer your question.

For 2007, total world oil supply was 84.5 mbd
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t14.xls

2007 world crude & condensate production was 73.2 mbd.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t11d.xls

2007 world natural gas liquids production was 7.9 mbd
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t13.xls

That gives 2007 total world C&C&NGL of 81.1 mbd.

World biofuels production for 2007 was about 1.2 mbd.

World coal to liquids and gas to liquids for 2007 was about 0.2 mbd.

That gives a total of 82.5 mbd for 2007 which is still less than 84.5 mbd. The difference of 2 mbd is assumed to be refinery processing gains - "Processing gain: The volumetric amount by which total output is greater than input for a given period of time. This difference is due to the processing of crude oil into products which, in total, have a lower specific gravity than the crude oil processed."
http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/glossary_p.htm

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netfind on June 10, 2008 - 10:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Must be the fog.

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497 comments on DrumBeat: June 10, 2008

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