I agree that there will be a push to continue or increase subsidy to certain industries, but I don't think we can ignore the political will to use fuel subsidy as a populist measure. There is a great deal of sunk cost in the assumption of continuing ability of cheap energy--suburbia, cars purchased, roads built, etc.--and there will be a great deal of pressure to use subsidy, even if it leads to financial trouble, to maintain the viability of these sunk costs. Developing countries may have less of this sunk cost, but they also tend to have larger populations of people who aspire to move up to the idealized "middle class" status of a suburban home and a car, and that will only increase the pressure to populism. There also tends to be a greater need to pacify the populace in developing countries--take China, for example: the previous constitutional basis of Maoist theory, equality, etc. has largely been replaced by a capitalist mentality, therefore the authority of the current authoritarian regime is now based on their ability to deliver increasing wealth to the people. They're likely to incur great long-term problems to eek out a few more years of maintaining a facade of growth and increasing wealth for the poor, and that will partly mean fuel subsidy...