"I’ll stake out and defend a somewhat extreme position:" -- I see nothing extreme about your position. Consider this: When gas in the US rose from $2 to $3 did demand fall at all? No, it actually increased!

One theory runs that most people in Asia are less well-0ff so it will hurt them more. The problem is that that there are ten times more of them, meaning that their well-off probably equals our well-off, so whatever reduction in demand takes place in US will be offset by increase in Asia. I think you are spot-on. Yet another factor is that they are driving a new, smaller fleet of more efficient cars so that these prices don't hurt them as much as Joe Sixpack driving his F150 and soccermom her LandRover, both of which are financed to the hilt.

You raise an interesting point here. I think there is a similar psychological/social motivation to own a car (even a very small one) in China or India as there is to own a big SUV or truck in the US.

Also, the high fuel taxes in Europe have something of a similar effect to the small cars driven in Asia, in that they make the increases in underlying oil prices less significant. If you've already oriented your life, work, housing, etc. in Germany around $8/gallon gasoline, it's not a huge change in your budget when that goes up $2 because of underlying oil price increase. On the other hand, an exurbanite in the US who oriented their life (exurban home that they're probably upside down on, big F250, long commute to work and shopping and kid's school, etc.) around $3 gas, it's a huge change in your budget to go up those same $2 to $5/gallon gas...

Yeah, but when gas rose from $2 to $3 home values were shooting through the roof, and availability of credit on that equity was free and easy. Oil supply and demand do not live in a vacuum...

I would also wager that the elasticity with regard to demand for oil drops rapidly at some point - so behavior doesn't change until it cross some threshold - mostly because those changes are significant. In other words there is a point at which consumers change behavior in response to oil prices - and that change is somewhat drastic with regard to consumption - e.g., carpooling (which is a hassle) instead of taking one car cuts your daily gas consumption by 1/2 (roughly) and so that hassle might not make sense at $3 but at $4 it does - the resulting change in consumption is a toggle on/off...