I predict a total collapse of domestic flights on all continents, since these could be replaced by high speed electric rail - journeys would take longer, but should cost considerably less (why is Amtrak the international exception), also trains should be much more comfortable than cramped airline seats.

With regard to inter-continental flights; the number of carriers is likely to fall to just one per nation, with some countries not bothering if a boat to the nearest continent is practicable.

I agree that a jet like the A380 needs to spend 99% of its time in the air, and that, for example, one flight a month between London and New York is not going to be sustainable. However, one flight a month (or week, or whatever interval) for the route does not also mean only one flight a month for the jet.

I am much more interested in the relationship between the price of oil and the level of personal disposable income. As the price of oil rises, one would expect a fall in the number of passengers able/willing to buy tickets.

Also, what is the split between ticket revenue that is business and non-business. Is it reasonable to assume that businesses will be tightening their belts just as much as individuals?

At what price point do people start, en masse, to abandon SUV's and privately owned light aircraft. I read yesterday that some SUV's have depreciated more than 25% in the first quarter of this year, and in some cases the depreciation has been more than is expected in an entire year. Is the same true of light aircraft and small speedboats?

There is a dividing point between the truly wealthy and the rest of us. My guess is that the majority of people that can afford a light aircraft or luxury boat, are not that worried about the price of gas, and will only vacation 4 times a year instead of 6. Unless there is a real depression and their source of revenue bites the dust.

Maybe if it were sold at a steep discount in a bankruptcy auction.

This is a time-honored way of taking debt off the books. The companies that put the satellites for satellite phones up went bankrupt; the companies that took over were relieved of the debt and thus had a lower cost structure. I haven't checked on this story in a while but the replacement companies were better set up to make a profitable business of it than the original company.