The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: June 16, 2008

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Substrate on June 16, 2008 - 9:10am

The Auto Efficiency Wedge
Posted by Stuart Staniford on February 11, 2007 - 10:28am

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/12/17/1377/0132

Keeping in mind the "Auto Efficiency Wedge" by Stuart Staniford, and assuming for the moment that personal transportation must continue into future to facilitate the transition to another way of life...

In the coming years with the combined effects of peak oil, credit crises, material constraints, and overall downturns in the economy there are going to be a large number of people facing a transportation crisis. SUV's and non-work trucks are likely to become as desirable as chicken pox as the cost of operating them becomes prohibitive to the owners and their resale value plummets. This will leave vast numbers of people with no means to purchase another vehicle. Rather than being able to go through a complete cycle of new car owner, to second owner and beyond - the SUV's and non-work trucks may very well hit a dead end. So at the same time that the primary market of new buyers gets squeezed because the resale value of their vehicle has gone in the toilet, the secondary market of used car buyers will be faced with a shortage of viable and desirable used cars.

So what do you do when you're faced with a shortage of transportation, soaring oil costs, a shortage of raw and finished (batteries, etc) materials to build new vehicles with, and a weakened economy? Some will try to adapt through the increased use public transportation where it exists, bicycling, walking. Carpooling may be viable for many, extending the usefulness of lower mpg vehicles and perhaps stretching the usefulness of higher mpg vehicles. Unfortunately, though these strategies should help many people, this will still leave a large gap in personal transportation. I think a look back at a time which will likely present some similarities to future conditions - post WWII Europe - could reveal a strategy for the future. A blend between a car and a motorcycle, the KabinenRoellers (Cabin Scooters) filled the gap between being exposed to the elements on a scooter or motorcycle, and the expensive larger cars that only the rich could afford. One of the quickest micros ever made, the Messerschmitt KR200 with its tandem seats and aerodynamic tapered body could reach speeds of 60mph and get 80mpg with a 191cc two-stroke single cylinder engine. A modern cabin scooter with a nice aerodynamic shape, and more efficient four-stroke engine (or diesel) should be capable of similar or better numbers with increased comfort and crash protection. An electric cabin scooter would be capable of going quite far using far fewer batteries than a full size car (see Corbin Sparrow/Myers Motors NMG). Built as simple transportation and produced in mass quantities, these simple(r) vehicles could potentially sell for around the price of a motorcycle/scooter + a premium, and be much more practical because of the fully enclosed structure.

======================================================

Some examples of older Cabin Scooter vehicles:

Microcar Museum: http://www.microcarmuseum.com/

Messerschmitt KR200: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messerschmitt_KR200

Replicar Cursor: http://www.roldroyd.karoo.net/cursor/cursor.htm

HMV Freeway: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMV_Freeway

HMV Freeway video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHkNvrcFaq0&feature=related

(100mpg @ 40mph, 80mpg avg, top speed 65mph-ish), 1 passenger

======================================================

Some examples of modern cabin-scooter type vehicles and very small cars

VW 1 liter: http://www.seriouswheels.com/cars/top-vw-1-liter-car.htm
0.99 litre per 100 kilometres. (~235mpg), 2 passenger.

VW Lupo 3L: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Lupo
3L per 100 km (~78mpg), 4 passenger

Loremo: http://evolution.loremo.com/index.php?lang=en

(~120mpg), 2+2 passenger

MM NMG: http://www.myersmotors.com/

(electric, ~200Wh/mi), 1 passenger. There’s a video on MM’s homepage (that auto starts – grr!) that is pretty interesting and shows a few of them mixing with traffic. They look oddly large.

Aptera: http://www.aptera.com/
(electric, hybrid - 200+mpg), 2 passenger

Commuter Cars Tango: http://www.commutercars.com/
(electric 80mi range), 2 passenger

Venture One: http://www.flytheroad.com/
(electric, hybrid), 2 passenger

==================================================
Some semi-faired scooter based trikes:

(The other) Tango: http://www.gekgo.com/3-wheel_rtm-tango_scooter_%20trikes.html

Suntrike: http://www.gekgo.com/suntrike_gas_scooter_trikes.html

Scootcoupe: http://www.gekgo.com/scooter_coupe_gas_scooter_trikes.html

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Black_Dog on June 16, 2008 - 9:39am

There are lots of possibilities for high mpg vehicles using aerodynamics. There's also the man powered vehicles, which are bicycles (or trikes) with aerodynamic shells. I built a shell around a small 100cc motorcycle and managed to do 235 mpg on the freeway at 55 mph. And in that effort, I never got around to optimizing the engine. Other similar efforts produced over 400 mpg running on a closed track.

http://www.craigvetter.com/pages/470MPG/470MPG%20Main.html

http://www.craigvetter.com/pages/470MPG/high%20mileage%20fairing.html

Of course, these bikes aren't going to pass crash tests and the typical SUV driver isn't going to be happy riding on one. But, for the lunatic fringe, there's always a way...

E. Swanson

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Substrate on June 16, 2008 - 2:09pm

The typical SUV driver faced with the choice of one of these, a bicycle, or the bus - will likely grumble and curse under their breath, then quickly accept them if they're the only option. As far as crash worthiness - if the SUV cold war is over perhaps it won't matter as much, and they (should and/or could) be much safer than motorcycles.

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Todd on June 17, 2008 - 12:19am

I don't know why I'm even wasting my time posting this. It's late and there are already an unreadable 300+ posts.

A lot of boondocks people like me will switch to wood gas/biogas. It is a cheap and proven technology. With appropriate pretreatment of the "gas", the engine will last a long time and not varnish out.

This was discussed on TOD, what, 3 years ago?

Todd

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karlof1 on June 17, 2008 - 1:16am

Hi Todd--Seems to me we discussed constructing the fermenter, collector and processor all that while back--a different kind of still. I'm glad you decided to post because it spurs the little grey cells, yes!

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WNC Observer on June 16, 2008 - 11:03am

Most compacts and subcompacts could and probably evntually will be converted to EVs. Most owners won't be able to afford many batteries, so their range may be limited to only a few miles per day. Even that might be enough to continue to provide a lot of people with at least a little bit of mobility - enough to get to the grocery store or nearest mass transit node and back in bad weather, at least. These will have to do for a lot of people until enough affordable NEVs and other small vehicles per above become available.

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Dr Moody on June 16, 2008 - 11:08am

Sounds like you think we are going to get through this. What about other such problems like spare parts, lubrication, no job to go to, no food at said grocery store etc.

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jokuhl on June 16, 2008 - 12:33pm

No. It sounds like he thinks there are some possibilities out there. BB's remember?

"We'll get through this.." accuses him of concluding that 'Everyone' will, and perhaps that it should be relatively easy or painless. But he never said any of that. Some will, some won't, your mileage and your luck may certainly vary. He did say 'most', but cut him some slack, eh? Hyperbolic assumptions turns so many of these threads into wide-eyed "oh yah?"-fests.

If I can pull off an EV conversion, it probably won't serve just as a typical private car or van/pickup truck (one of my hopes..), but will be in service more likely as a taxicab, shared use for the extended family, or as a rental/delivery vehicle.

As far as parts and lubrication, EV's are reputed to have much lower maintenance needs, and as they will probably travel far fewer miles, the tires and grease and such needs will likely be lowered as well.

Bob

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Substrate on June 16, 2008 - 2:54pm

(Responding also to WNC Observer)

The problem with electrifying a normal car, even a subcompact, in the future years is going to be battery supply. It takes A LOT of batteries to get a fairly meager range. A retrofitted civic using lead-acid will have much of its cargo space devoured by batteries, and only have maybe a 50 mile range. The Sparrow/NMG can get that kind of range from 13 PbA's (and they're not really high Amp-hour either). Super390 did some calculations on what it would take to equip the VW 1 liter with batteries for a decent range and the result was pretty low. The more efficient the vehicle the fewer batteries are necessary. This has double impact in not only reducing initial cost, but operating costs (fewer batteries to replace, less electricity needed)...but perhaps the greatest effect is by using fewer, there are more to go around - 'cause you know there are going to be shortages.

As an aside, I think one of of the biggest things that killed the Corbin Sparrow was that it only had one seat - not room for even a single passenger. Gas being dirt cheap was probably not good for it either. Initial pricing was about $14,000. It's now, under Myers Motors, something incomprehensible (like $30,000 or such).

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DaveMart on June 16, 2008 - 3:09pm

The shops are a mile from where I live, and the town centre two.

I figure a 6 mile range ought to be possible on my VW Polo.

Most of the conversions will be for very, very local use.

If they bring out decent electric trike I will use that instead.

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WNC Observer on June 16, 2008 - 5:29pm

Any purpose-built NEV is likely to outperform any conversion car in terms of range per battery. The problem is, though, that new purpose-built NEVs are likely to be unaffordable for much of the lower tier of the population. If they have or can acquire that old civic, round up a few batteries, and can afford the conversion kit, they might just have enough battery capacity to make short trips. Yes, they could walk or bike, but when they are trying to make it back and forth to the nearest mass transit station or to the store in a driving rain or snowstorm, that is expecting a lot of them. Even if it takes two or three days to recharge on a trickle charger, and even if it can only creep along at 10-15mph for a few miles, any motorized wheels at all would be a considerable advantage over none at all.

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DaveMart on June 16, 2008 - 5:42pm

I'm reasonably confident that battery technology will take off pretty well, with the huge impetus given by expensive oil. Toyota and their excellent production engineering will likely take a lot of cost out of lithium batteries with full, multi million mass-production, whereas the addition of super capacitors to humble lead-acid batteries by avoiding deep discharge should massively increase their lives.
Probably the way to go will be some sort of purpose built EV, bike, trike or whatever, but for very low mileage drivers a conversion may be the best option if they don't fancy getting wet in the rain.

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Leanan on June 16, 2008 - 6:15pm

Even if it takes two or three days to recharge on a trickle charger, and even if it can only creep along at 10-15mph for a few miles, any motorized wheels at all would be a considerable advantage over none at all.

I don't think I buy that, except for those who are physically incapable of walking or biking.

The way I see it...the benefit of having a car will be falling, while the cost increases. Eventually, it will reach the point where ordinary people won't want to spend the money on a car, even if they can afford it.

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tstreet on June 16, 2008 - 6:56pm

Assuming that one is serviced by a robust and frequent mass transit system consisting of buses, street cars, trollies, etc., and assuming that no transit stop is more than ten minutes from where people live, I think we should move to banning all private autos, NEVs or not, unless the person is certified to be handicapped. Even in this case, pick up services could be available, which already exist in many locations.

From personal experience, it is generally not worth messing with a car, even if electric, if one has access to an excellent transit system. And also from personal experience, when I did not have a car, it made it very easy to lose weight and to improve my health in general. The Dutch recognize this.

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knightrd on June 17, 2008 - 2:00pm

My mom is disabled, works harder than most people without a disability, and has had to use public transportation before. It's more than a hassle when you are disabled. Often you have to wait for hours to be picked up. Sometimes people get stuck at locations because the drivers go to the wrong entrances of buildings and quickly leave when they don't find the person waiting. Handicapped equipped taxis are often used for spare capacity and they often don't carry the additional insurance required beyond the initial vetting that they must go through to become authorized. The drivers frequently drive too quickly over bumpy roads which causes things like bumped heads, muscle strains, or worse. Sadly there is often little recourse for those who depend most upon these services.

She has a handicapped equipped vehicle which the state paid to retrofit. With the cost of filling up the tank rising from $50 to $70, it's enticing for her to use public transportation, but the damage and inconvenience caused far outweighs the benefits. I fear that at some point it will become the only available option. Reform of the system isn't easy in a market ruled by a public transportation cartel whom the public officials will bow to. Really the only hope is lawsuits or undercover news investigations, but what level of suffering will be inflicted upon the people who depend on these programs to try to lead a productive life?

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AlanfromBigEasy on June 17, 2008 - 10:46pm

My sympathy and empathy.

More later.

Alan

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jmygann on June 16, 2008 - 12:09pm

Other than the Aptera my favorite is ...

http://www.thegreenmotorist.com/index.php/triac-electric-vehicle-now-ava...

Both are side by side tadpole trikes (motorcycles)

My goal is to get this in a pedal hybrid and registered as a bicycle

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prairiedog on June 16, 2008 - 1:52pm

I like the Aptera too. But as someone pointed out, avoiding potholes may be a bit difficult, what with the triangular design.

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BrownBear on June 16, 2008 - 2:34pm

And consider the new Tata Nano as well. Who knows - it might get exported to the US :-)

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beggar on June 16, 2008 - 7:33pm

My Zap Xebra PK might qualify as one of the most efficient vehicles on the streetsof Minneapolis, MN, today.

My little truck is electric and is very useful for short urban trips. I can go up to 40 MPH and so can comfortably drive the city streets and carry tools and supplies for my work.

Zap makes a little electric car as well.

If we replaced millions of ICE vehicles with these much more efficient little electric vehicles in cities, we would save energy and money and also make less pollution.

The key seems to be that the electric motor is far more efficient with energy than the ICE. It also helps to keep vehicle size, weight and speed down, of course.

Here's a page with pictures of the Zap Xebra PK and SD:

http://www.zapworld.com/electric-vehicles/electric-cars

I really think that we have the technology to make electric transit and electric utility vehicles and station cars work right now. We need the vision and commitment to implement public policy that makes use of the available technology.

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islandboy on June 16, 2008 - 7:38pm

Looking further out, this Swedish research into cellulose nanofibers that could help create reinforced plastic composites cheaper than those reinforced by carbon fibers. This kind of technology could help to reduce the weight of vehicles, without reducing their structural integrity and there there should be no difficulty scaling up production of cellulose. I have a post further down the page talking about my frustration with the dearth of components to build AC electric drive systems that include regenerative braking. There's lots of exciting work being done in the field of batteries, (can I say EEstor?) some of which may actually make it to market. Lighter, more efficient, more powerful electric motors are also being researched.

It is my hope that as automakers ramp up their electric drive efforts, we will see more AC motors designed for automobile traction applications available. New battery technology will allow extended range, lighter weight and hopefully, lower cost. It would be nice to be able to get something like the AC-150 EV Power System designed specifically for automotive applications, from an industrial electronics manufacturer like Honywell or Siemens, at a price closer to the DC drive electronics currently available. Note that the more popular DC controllers used by EV enthusiasts are not exactly mass produced either.

There sre an increasing number of incredibly interesting DIY/home brew/after market EV conversions out there including this Dodge Ram pluf-in hybrid that the creator wants to offer to the public! IMHO it would be great f there was a boom in this kind of activity, as it could provide a bright spot in an otherwise very gloomy economy and provide some real demand destruction fairly quickly. This could extend the useful life of fairly new ICE powered cars and transition to an electric based transport sector in a lot less time than it would take to replace the entire fleet of ICE powered vehicles with all new electric ones. While converted ICE powered vehicles will mot be as efficient as vehicles designed as EVs from the ground up, they will still be a damned sight more efficient than their ICE powered equivalents.

Things like Hemmers and light to medium duty trucks bought for recreational purposes would be best recycled to provide copper for all the electric motors that are going to be needed and glass, metals and plastics for the massive build out of commuter rail.

Alan from the islands

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jokuhl on June 16, 2008 - 8:16pm

This brings to mind the question,

'Between the Alternator, Starter Motor and Inition cabling, etc, how much of the copper needed for winding and cabling an EV is available in a scrapped SUV, or other vehicles?'

Lead will likely become the new pricey commodity, as was implied above..

Bob

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